How the fuck do we have $300 billion to rebuild Iran after we spent $80 billion bombing it, when we don’t “have the money” for pediatric cancer research?
My thoughts on the new $NBIS data center launch yesterday:
1️⃣ Arkady is obviously a billionaire by now and could easily stay behind the scenes. Yet he still shows up in person. From all his interviews, he strikes me as a true technologist: curious, humble, and obsessed with building. Feels good to back a CEO like that.
2️⃣ 5 MW may sound small, but it likely means ~$40M ARR. At a 10x multiple that’s +$400M market cap. Not bad for “just the beginning.” Rapid, sustainable growth ahead. Israel's startup and tech ecosystem are world-class. 10/10 talent. It might start smaller, but I think demand will grow much faster than other locations.
3️⃣ Some complain about the lack of PR.
Three possible reasons:
• PR still coming
• Confidential info (gov involved)
• Avoiding political attention around Israel
Bottom line: trust the management. So far, they’ve earned it.
$NBIS is crashing… but whales are buying it.
While retail panic sells, smart money just dropped $11.7M on $90 calls and $8.5M on $50 calls.
That’s not fear, that’s accumulation.
and for those still watching, waiting for a “perfect” entry as $NBIS keeps climbing this pullback might be your only real chance to get in before the next run.
$NBIS Does $4.3B of revenue in 2027 look realistic?
Nebius is guiding for 1GW of contracted capacity end of 2026.
Let's say 40% of that capacity is fully online in 2027.
- with a utilization rate of 75%
- $10M in ARR per MW
That gives $3B in revenue for 2027.
Bump up the utilization rate to 80% gives $3.2B
Am I too conservative here? Do we expect more capacity to be online in 2027?
$NBIS Israel data center goes online one quarter ahead of schedule
It features 4,000 NVIDIA HGX B200s, Quantum InfiniBand networking, and the NVIDIA AI Enterprise stack, including NIM microservices and NeMo AI agent tools
It will add about $130M in annual revenue
I’m officially starting a position in $NBIS.
The stock is down ~17% in the last 5 days… to me, this is a tremendous entry point.
Here’s why I’m bullish:
•Q2 revenue: $105M, up 625% YoY and 106% QoQ.
•Raised 2025 ARR outlook to $900M–$1.1B.
•Signed a $17.4B multi-year deal with Microsoft for GPU & infrastructure services.
•Analyst price target raised to $206 (from $77).
•Institutional ownership around 22%.
Nebius is positioning itself as a core AI infrastructure provider… The Microsoft deal de-risks execution and validates the platform.
After this sharp pullback, I’m starting my position here.
I expect $NBIS to have around 500 MW of active capacity by the end of 2026.
Assuming $NBIS generates $10 million in ARR per MW, that would translate to $5 billion in ARR.
That’s a 10× increase from today in just about 1.5 years.
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Bonnie Critchley, an actual local resident and Canadian Vet is running as a c candidate in the Battle River-Crowfoot by-election as an independent.
She is a solid option for those looking for real representation. She isn't using the riding for a seat to yell at the PM. She cares about the community!
She is getting some buzz and has the chance to win if the people put their community ahead of electing a candidate that doesn't care for the riding.
Don't let Poilievre use the good people of BR-C!
#SV4A