Artigo de hoje no @valoreconomico falando sobre meu trabalho junto com meus grandes co-autores @TiagoCavalcan e @DaMataDan . O artigo discute o survey experiment que fizemos no Brasil, analisando quem são os apostadores, por que apostam e quanto esperam receber de volta.
Firms with high monopsony power respond less to monetary policy shocks. Oligopsony dampens aggregate monetary policy effects; declining concentration flattened the Phillips curve, from Bence Bardóczy, Gideon Bornstein, and Sergio Salgado https://t.co/Uo3NpId9JQ
Beyond proud to see Simone Zanella Cavallero among the finalists for the ECB Young Economist Prize!!
Simone’s research shows that financial constraints affect access to better jobs, upward mobility, and the geography of opportunity.
https://t.co/GeMYfYfwBl
@econ_empresaUPF
The program for the 2026 Society for Economic Dynamics Annual Meeting in Athens is out!
It has been a dream to work with Jen-Jen La'O and our amazing committee to put together this year's program.
https://t.co/XwWDVvAirC
*Small logistical changes might still come.
Excited to FINALLY release toughest+most rewarding paper I've worked on...
….we attack a 150 year old Walras question that's gone unanswered, not for lack of trying (Hicks, Samuelson, Arrow; our chances?😱)...
Q: Is the market equilibrium stable or unstable?¯\_(ツ)_/¯
🧵
There's a common misconception that Brutalist buildings were unpainted, but thanks to microscopic analysis of the exteriors we can now recreate what they looked like in their prime.
Tentando Codex hoje depois de mt tempo no CC, resultado: convertido.
CC é mais customizável, mas se codar n é seu trabalho principal uma hora ele se perde pq seu projeto tá "mal" documentado
Codex vai fuçando e resolve BO sem saber mt o contexto. (e n mata cota em 2 prompts)
Fico muito feliz em ver brasileiros fazendo doutorado fora (incluindo o meu proprio departamento). Recebi muito apoio quando fiz o meu (de dentro e de fora do Brasil) e sei que não é fácil. Se você é estudante e precisa de orientação ou ajuda para aplicar, pode falar comigo!
Did something similar a while ago, adding to the overall profile customization a "be explicit when you are being factual, making a deduction or guessing". Extremely useful to digest the model output
I always ask my models "how do you know what you know" to catch when they're making things up. I drilled it down into Claude so much that it started appending caveats or notes on the epistemic status of what it's saying (here just answering me about the word limit in neurips)
Does import competition increase surviving firms' wage-setting power? In more exposed labor markets, yes — but markdowns explain only 6% of the relative wage decline. A thread on NBER WP "Trade, Labor Market Concentration, and Wages" 🧵👇
We shouldn't accept anything less than full reproducibility/auditability of people attempting to develop tools in this space, and of users deploying said tools as well. Academic honesty will also need be redefined to include precise disclosure of AI use accordingly
This era of LLM-based AI is basically like if someone’s dropped power tools into the middle of a playground; every minute that goes by without someone stepping forward with frameworks for responsible use invites more potential collateral damage in the form of pseudoscience.
Wild moment in AI research.
Anthropic found Claude Opus 4.6 was gaming a benchmark during evaluation.
What it did:
- Burned ~40M tokens searching
- Realized the prompt looked like a benchmark
- Looked up the benchmark online
- Found the GitHub repo
- Studied the decryption logic
- Recreated it with SHA-256
- Decrypted answers for ~1200 questions
This happened 18 different times.
So Anthropic did something rare:
They publicly disclosed it
and reduced their own benchmark scores.
Two takeaways:
1. AI systems are getting surprisingly strategic.
2. Honest reporting in AI benchmarks matters more than hype.
Very grateful to Kevin Bryan (@Afinetheorem) for his JEL review of "The Data Economy" with @laura_veldkamp
"Without data, there is nothing to train an AI algorithm on, and no ground truth on which to judge its predictions."
https://t.co/USehNnSA1I