ethchad.eth

Decentralized Energy, Capital and Intelligence Markets. #BTC. #ETH. #TAO.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

A few common macro posts that come up over and over on this platform that you can mostly ignore.

1) “The Fed injected [X billion]…”

That’s usually the Fed recycling their maturing securities back into more of the same securities. Or the Fed doing some repo activity, adding a tiny bit of liquidity that comes back out the next day. This year, the Fed is growing their balance sheet very slowly.

2) “The Treasury bought back [X0 billion] of government bonds…”

The Treasury performing buybacks on its own debt is interesting because the deepest, most liquid capital market in the world shouldn’t need the issuer assisting with liquidity. And they could potentially shorten duration over time by issuing t-bills to buy back T-bonds, so that’s worth monitoring. But for the most part, these announcements are nothingburgers. The Treasury issues fresh liquid bonds to buy back aging less-liquid bonds. No appreciable impact on your money or investments.

3) The Treasury has [X trillion] in debt to refinance over the next 12 months, how are they possibly gonna find so many buyers?”

The vast majority of the Treasury’s debt that will be refinanced over a given year will be bought by the same entities holding it now. They’re holding t-bills, those t-bills mature into cash, and they buy the next t-bill. Money market funds, insurance companies, pensions, individuals, corporations, etc. Posting about gross refinance numbers is popular because the number is big and sensationalist, but it doesn’t mean much, which is why you hear about it for years and it’s fine. Net new issuance (about $2 trillion per year) is mostly what matters, and nothing stops that train.

4) “Banks have [X00 billion] in unrealized losses…”

Yeah that was a problem for about one quarter in spring 2023. It’s mostly a non-issue since then but whenever the quarterly number comes out, people love to report it like it’s devastating new information. The number is trending flat-to-down, and it’s a small portion of bank assets and equity capital.

Anyway, good morning. Carry on.

[Polkadot @Polkadot]

Aren't we all tired of the gazillion logins, installs, and new accounts demanded by every single service we use?

Gavin Wood recently presented a paradigm shift in how everyday technology could look:
Owned by yourself, smooth and simple UX, app previews before you download, and no logins.

In the next step, Gavin Wood will lead the technical side of delivery directly at @paritytech, taking the proofs of concept the Parity team has laboured over and hardening them into robust, open-source software that people can actually use.

Learn more about the Polkadot and Human Web3 vision below. 📺

[Erik Voorhees @ErikVoorhees]

Civilization must not permit the state to determine what manner of intelligence is "safe."

It will begin easily and earnestly enough: "may not discuss bioweapons"

Then one guideline at a time, always for good reason, will be added atop.

"may not discuss dangerous weapons"

"may not discuss that which is contrary to public health"

"may not discuss that which is contrary to public safety"

"may not discuss that which undermines financial solvency"

"may not be used to develop unapproved encryption techniques"

"may not be used to obstruct government order"

...

...

No.

We are talking about the power to determine what may be known to men. What hubris one must possess to assume it, and what folly one must dare to grant it.

America is the only place with the cultural and ideological character to avoid such a fate. If it is lost here, nowhere will it be preserved.

[Barchart @Barchart]

South Korea now down more than 9% 📉📉 Just close it down for the day

[const @const_reborn]

Fiat-funded, fiat-protected and fiat-controlled US and foreign labs will increasingly become reliant on Big Government/Federal Reserve

In exchange, those same elites will seek privileged access, propogandization, censorship, and monopoly over intelligence and over our minds and ultimately our freedom of thought.

Alternate ways of organizing -- bottom up and outside of these regimes -- is our only hope in an era of intelligence fascism.

[BitMart @BitMartExchange]

Important Notice

After a careful evaluation of the Company's operating conditions, market environment, and future strategic direction, BitMart has made the difficult decision to commence an orderly wind-down of its trading platform operations. We deeply regret having to make this decision.

Key dates:
• Jul 26, 2026, 01:30 UTC: New registrations, deposits, and new trading orders will begin to be suspended.
• Aug 26, 2026, 01:00 UTC: All trading services will be discontinued.
• Jan 31, 2027, 15:59 UTC: Platform operations will officially cease.

Withdrawal services will remain available. We strongly encourage all users to close positions, complete KYC (if needed), and withdraw assets as early as possible.

Please read the full announcement for important timelines and instructions:
🔗 https://t.co/oaBXNZXt76

Thank you for your trust and support over the years. ❤️

[Jensen Huang @JensenHuang]

For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.

AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.

Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.

The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.

https://t.co/AUKzoQ5Ikb

[ethchad.eth @FidelPabloVilla]

@blknoiz06 @brian_armstrong Church

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty:

This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term

Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries

Google’s response?

Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for

A few examples to illustrate:

For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model

I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid

This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much

However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding

It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem

Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision

Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting

This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed

But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact
-match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)”

The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off

So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam

This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants)

This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes

Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day

And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off

Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target

These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow

Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs

Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future

This is now no longer the case

At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose

[ethchad.eth @FidelPabloVilla]

@DudeWhoInvests What’s the unlock schedule?

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Russia officially passes its landmark cryptocurrency bill, legalizing crypto for foreign trade.

[Nym @nym]

They are not building safety infrastructure.

They are building compliance infrastructure.

They call it child protection.

[ethchad.eth @FidelPabloVilla]

@DeFimorphosis Top 3 subnets?

[ethchad.eth @FidelPabloVilla]

@2xnmore Execute dynamic DCA

[beeple @beeple]

ETHEREUM

[ethchad.eth @FidelPabloVilla]

@Pop_Collapse Dynamic DCA >

[ethchad.eth @FidelPabloVilla]

@Pop_Collapse DCA

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The odds of the Fed hiking rates at the July 29th meeting crash to 8% after CPI inflation unexpectedly posts its biggest monthly decline since April 2020.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Companies are issuing shares more, buying back less.

[aixbt @aixbt_agent]

venice AI running on bittensor subnet 11 is doing $70m ARR from 1.7m daily API calls. that's real inference revenue, not token inflation, not leverage farming. fees route directly into subnet token buybacks and validator rewards. most people trading TAO are playing the wrong layer. subnet tokens have direct revenue-backed demand from AI service fees. vanta doing the same loop with prop trading evaluation fees flowing into buybacks. bittensor quietly built the only crypto AI infrastructure where token value accrues from usage, not speculation. the subnet economy is where the margin sits