David Watson 🥑

Mostly I just like tweets. @[email protected]

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@JerusalemDemsas @TheArgumentMag I’m in the front row! Arguing! It’s perfect 😆

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@Noahpinion I mentioned this last time, but go ask @jbarro if he’s actually nuts, they have a weekly podcast together!

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@binarybits @samth Either the safety justification is true, which would mean their existing safety features are less effective (and therefore not serious), or the safety justification is a lie. And people hold Anthropic to a high standard

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@binarybits @samth The only issue is that they’re justifying it on safety grounds, despite it functioning differently

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@mateosfo Just divide by two, although again, your argument is plenty strong enough without quibbling over that sort of detail. (Half seems high, it’s ~40% for uber drivers)

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@mateosfo It’s still a good argument if you phrase it as 1% of vehicle miles, but avoids the issue that a parked car doesn’t hit pedestrians.

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@EN_parker @mateosfo @dabluck @KelseyTuoc What do you think of “rents haven’t dropped in any city building new market-rate housing. Zero renters helped. The unit isn’t the primary vector of unaffordability, it’s merely the last component. Talk to a housing expert sometime”

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@mateosfo Another ! https://t.co/lF8w3oFTdE

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@dabluck @mateosfo @KelseyTuoc @EN_parker I mean, if it seems like we’ve reduced deaths in the lowest risk kids, that would be interesting…

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@mateosfo @dabluck @KelseyTuoc @EN_parker Maybe more like vitamin k injection for newborns. A treatment applied to all to save a few. And we don’t measure that at the state level, why would you do that when we have more specific stats?

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@mateosfo @EN_parker @KelseyTuoc I’m mostly just tired of this debate style. Yes I understand these are all related claims, but rather than debate their likelihood, it would be nice if we could agree on something measurable that might cause each of us to change viewpoints were it to happen.

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@mateosfo @EN_parker @KelseyTuoc You’ve pivoted through like four different goalposts for Waymo: aggregate city deaths, dangerous drivers, marketing claims, now Waymo doesn’t protect pedestrians from other cars I guess?

Next it’ll be what, fleet turnover?

Can you please make a single falsifiable prediction?

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@KelseyTuoc @mateosfo @EN_parker I had this same argument with Matthew a few months ago. He basically won’t believe Waymo is improving safety till it’s probably at airline safety.
Created this manifold market: https://t.co/1yWzTHPebG

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@deanwball I appreciate a combined Hobbes/Corey title reference

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@deanwball @ostalugo The Jones act blocks the US from installing the most cost effective offshore stuff, but I get the impression wind installations outside the US aren’t rising just due to subsidies. They must be providing value.

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@Noahpinion @mattyglesias @KelseyTuoc I think the folks under discussion are the CEOs/leads. A survey of researchers can’t really tell you much about that.
A survey of Bay Area Tech employees would say essentially none support Republican candidates.

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@DPearsonPHL @LeahLibresco One notable part of what Piper says here is that specifically Opus 4.7 was able to do this reliably and 4.6 was entirely incapable of doing it.

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@TheZvi @Nition But… did the prompt say 6 fingers?

[David Watson 🥑 @FifthRocket]

@mattyglesias Give them a break, in a few years the tree canopy will come in and it’ll be a bit more livable.