FinAsiaMkts

Ex hedge fund/bank prop trader..not investment advice !

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Thank you Janet! Your books are how I learned about CDS. I owe you!

[Thomas Braziel @Bkclaims]

Jeremy Grantham: The Drapes Don't Match the Curtains.

I watched Jeremy Grantham on Diary of a CEO and CNBC. Joe Kernen pushed back on a lot of it, but one thing Jeremy said caught my attention.

He mentioned that he's given 90-95% of his wealth to the Grantham Foundation.

So I thought, "Alright... let's see how Jeremy Grantham actually invests Jeremy Grantham's money."

I pulled the Foundation's 990.

This is where the story gets interesting.

The Foundation has about $782 million in assets.

Roughly:

$536M in venture funds and private companies
$115M in public equities
$78M cash
$32M other investments
$20M receivables

This isn't some sleepy index portfolio.

It's a complicated institutional portfolio built around active manager selection, private markets and frontier technology.

The venture managers alone are basically a who's who of elite VC:

Thrive, Lux (five different funds), Founders Fund, Flagship, Foundation Capital, FirstMark, Lakestar, Formation8, Arch, Atlas, Threshold (DFJ), Greycroft, Lowercarbon, Technology Impact, Eclipse, The Engine, Owl, Susa, Accomplice, Rincon... and a lot more.

These aren't vanilla managers. They're some of the best investors in AI, software, robotics, biotech, climate tech, semiconductors, defense tech and frontier technology anywhere in the world. Most people couldn't get an allocation if they tried.

Several of them also have meaningful exposure to SpaceX or the broader space economy, which is pretty funny considering how dismissive Jeremy was of SpaceX in the interview.

Then there are the direct investments:

Fervo Energy.
Zap Energy.
QuantumScape.
Oxide Computer.
Via Separations.
Lilac Solutions.
Radiant.
GreenLight Biosciences.
InventWood.
Carbon Ridge.

Again... this doesn't exactly scream "hide under the bed."

Even the public equity portfolio isn't exactly boring:
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (AI drug discovery)
Oscar Health
Instacart
Evolv Technologies
ACV Auctions
Sana Biotechnology
Riskified

Now compare that to the message he's selling:
"Sell US tech."
"Don't own US stocks."
"AI is the biggest bubble in history."
"SpaceX is a BS story."
"Just buy index funds."

Here's my issue.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with the way he's investing. Honestly, I think it's a very thoughtful institutional portfolio and I'd happily own a lot of these managers myself.

But the portfolio doesn't match the sales pitch.

His own money isn't sitting in index funds or hiding in cash waiting for the apocalypse.

It's invested with some of the best venture capital firms in the world whose entire job is finding the next generation of technology winners.

That's a very different message than the one he's selling on TV.

Top-down he's a permabear.

Bottom-up he's paying elite venture investors to own frontier technology.

Those two stories don't really line up.

[Albert Edwards @albertedwards99]

As a fellow 'perma'- bear I'm disgusted by the unprofessional behaviour of anchor Joe Kernen, especially as GMO's Jeremy Grantham switched to being bullish in March 2008. Joe's nasty ridicule of Jeremy is exactly the same hubris I heard in 1999 and 2007. Top of the market stuff.

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

@joesquawk lives in a glass house.
Late this week Kerenen attacked Jeremy Grantham.
In hockey terms, @squawkbox Joe knows how to give a hit but doesn't know how to take a hit.
Go back to the 1999, 2007, 2008 and late 2021 archived @cnbc videos in which Joe Kernen confidentally said the market Cassandras were wrong and the markets would "be fine." CNBC panelists, guests and mavens like @fundstrat never saw it coming. Like ostriches, their heads were in the sand of denial.
And he is critical and attacked Jeremy Grantham on Squawk Box. Seriously?
Kernen then presided over and watched huge market drawdowns in 2000-02 (Nasdaq -83%), 2008-09 (the S&P Index fell to 666!) and in 2022.
Joe and the business media was complicit - failing to provide skeptical and contrarian sources and viewpoints.
Then look at the superficial archived interviews on CNBC -like the interview with Sam Bankman Fried, less than wo months after he was arrested. Or the failure, in interviews, to ask Tom Lee about his massive unrealized loss in ethereum ($BMNR) and outlandish $150k bitcoin forecast last year.
Or the continuing and frequent softball interviews with Cathie Wood (who eviscerated $14 billion in investors' capital, the largest loss in ETF history) and The Master, Strategy's Michael Saylor $MSTR whose stock price is now -80%.
Finally, there is a long list of wrong footed and even dangerous investment recommendations on CNBC, but without timestamps, viewers are in the dark. (I have recently created a new Twitter series, "The CNBC Panelist Said What?"
The absence of disclosure is by design - protecting many poorly qualifed "investors" and allowing them to polish their images - despite sending retail lemmings over the cliff.
CNBC used to be the bully platform (which Kernen utilized to his advantage), no longer.
Real time, social media (like Twitter) has replaced it.
I will continue to call BS to poor and non objective journalism (and the failure to provide non "Group Stink" views in order to protect the retail investor) - Kernen is in that Hall of Fame of deceit and incompetence.
@KeithMcCullough @SamofAmerica @RPKent @HedgeyeDJ @gnoble79

[marqix ☆ @fwmarqix]

My neighbor's kid just quit the high school swim team after three years of being the slowest in every event. Kid was devastated. Thought he just didn't have it.

His dad, who swam competitively back in the day, couldn't figure it out. The kid had decent form, He trained hard. But his times were consistently 15-20% slower than kids with half his work ethic.

Out of frustration, the dad took him to a sports medicine clinic to get evaluated. Maybe asthma, Maybe something structural.

Doctor runs him through some tests. Watches him swim, Pulls the dad aside after and says: "Your son's goggles are filled with water, He's basically swimming blind and has been compensating by lifting his head every third stroke to see where he's going. It's adding massive drag."

Turns out the goggles were cheap ones from a big-box store. Seal was shot, Had been for over a year. Kid just thought that's how goggles worked, that everyone swam with water sloshing around their eyes.

They bought him a proper pair. First practice back, he dropped 18 seconds off his freestyle time.

Eighteen seconds, Because of a $12 piece of equipment nobody thought to replace.

Coach moved him up two lanes within a month.

The lesson stuck with me, How many people are out there right now grinding themselves into the dirt, convinced they're just not good enough, when really they're just working with broken tools and nobody's bothered to check?

Sometimes the problem isn't you.

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

Sorry but Joe was classless and unprofessional in this exchange.

Show some respect to a Wall St legend who has made many great calls.

Also, respect your elders.

What a piece of trash.

[Latha Venkatesh @latha_venkatesh]

Wow! Just wow! Thanks for posting Mr Mahindra

[Homēros @HomerosHayyam41]

According to official history, no superior civilization existed before our time.

And this wall was formed over a period of millions of years.

Do you believe it?

Muralla de Finestres, Huesca, Aragón, Spain

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Stock Market approaching Extreme Fear 👻😱🫂

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

JUST IN: Trump signs executive orders on quantum, supercharging a national effort in innovation in quantum technologies

[Vala Afshar @ValaAfshar]

Some of the best saves in football history

[Jensen Huang Tracker @HuangTracker]

Jensen Huang just called nuclear energy "wonderful" for AI.

The market rewarded companies that build AI.

The next wave of wealth? Companies that power it.

Stocks to watch:
$CEG - nuclear operator, PPAs with Microsoft & Meta
$GEV - grid infra for AI data centers
$SMR - only NRC-certified small modular reactor
$OKLO - Sam Altman-backed micro-reactors
$CCJ - world's top uranium miner

Every time Jensen talks, I break it down here.

Follow so you don't miss it.

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

My long time acquaintance, Ron Baron (who I have known for 45 years) makes extremely optimistic projections about $SPCX.
I like and admire Ron.
He is a believer and has prospered mightily from his exposure to Elon Musk's companies (particularly $TSLA and $SPCX).
However and respectfully, not one skeptical question of pushback was made on @CNBC @BeckyQuick @SullyCNBC in the interview.
Single person exposure, execution risks, government intervention/policy etc were not discussed.
This is a fundamental and respectful objection and criticism I have with the business media.
It is typically one-sided - only looking up to the sky.

[FinAsiaMkts @FinAsiaMkts]

@Aymanhamzi8 Please share the pdf.

[The Figen @TheFigen_]

Dad knew what he was doing.

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Americans realizing they spent $75 billion fighting Iran, then another $300 billion rebuilding Iran, just to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that was already open before the war started

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Iran says draft US deal includes oil sanctions waiver, nuclear limits and asset release, per Reuters

[NBA @NBA]

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 53 YEARS, THE KNICKS ARE NBA CHAMPIONS 🏆

New York defeats San Antonio 4-1 in the NBA Finals, capturing their third championship in franchise history!