Exponential

Curious and Tweets about - Investing | Value Creation | Innovation

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

10 to 100 bagger Framework
Pabrai 2.0
@RamBhupatiraju
@saxena_puru
@dmuthuk
RT for reach

1. Growing Pie give you better return than discounted Pie.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

Better Utilization of Long Sector flight is key to watch.

FY 28 Revenue / PAT - 1900 cr/400 cr

DYOR. Disclaimer :- Invested

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

#AFCOMholding

Currently has 3 Cargo - Boeing 737 ( converted cargo carrier) , only 2 operational last quarter.

Two more Boing 737 will be indicated in next three quarter.

Plans to add four Boing 777 -4
Cargo Capacity - 5x 737 payload.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

Revenue of Boeing 777 at 75% utilization - 3x 737 ( Long Sector leading to lower flight utilization)

Revenue per month per Boeing 737 - 20-22 cr.
Revenue per month per Boeing 777 - 60-90 cr.

FY28 revenue 737 - 1250 cr
FY28 revenue 777 - 600-700 cr

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

@Guruprsd In Real estate accounting of revenue and profit happen on OC of project that is generally Four years after Launch of project.

Pre sales with Embedded margins and good collection make RoCE for projects to go as high as 70 % bcs you use customer money for project.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

Why Real Estate Stocks are doing good ?

There is significant change in RoCE profile of Real estate companies due to strong demand.

Earlier Real Estate companies have to buy land and payment plans were generally back ended resulting in low RoCE.

#Realestate #maxestate

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

Windsurf: $40M, seemingly acquired by OpenAI for $3B

#windsurf

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

We are living in an Impulse world , Billions of dollar revenue scale up in no time.

There are multiple companies whose revenue has been Impulse function cursor, replit , windsurf.

We have decisively moved away from Exponential world to Impulse World.

#AI #Impulse

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

Cursor (Anysphere): $500M ARR at $9.9B valuation—the fastest to $100M ARR in SaaS history (12 months)

Replit: $100M ARR at $1.16B valuation—10x growth in 18 months

Lovable: $70M ARR by June 2025, €14.3M funding from Creandum

#replit #Cursor #Anthropic

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

@aadit_palicha Democratising data and Intelligence, Win- Win - Win model of Nick Sleep, D2C brands now have level playing field against legacy brands.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

@daltonc @aadit_palicha Nifty will also have zepto in FY 27. Scaling exponentially, optimising never before, truly world class consumer tech.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

@earth2022 #MaxEstate

Our expectation from Estate 360 was 4400 cr,

GDV revised to 4800 cr, indicate nominal channel commissions.

Asymmetric outcome has now been normalised. Share price captures lot of value.

Large pipeline conversions is key to watch.

#RealEstate

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

When cycle change results can be quiet different.

GDV of 4000cr project launch in August. 2- 2.5 times pre sales is minimum valuations #maxestate should command.

#realestate #prestige

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

Why Real Estate Stocks are doing good ?

There is significant change in RoCE profile of Real estate companies due to strong demand.

Earlier Real Estate companies have to buy land and payment plans were generally back ended resulting in low RoCE.

#Realestate #maxestate

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

@earth2022 Earlier GDV was 3200cr , later revised to 4000cr @ Rs 16666 per sq ft, current price near launch project is around 18k to 20k, expectation is that 4k cr will be revised upward, but adjusted to channel commission 4.5k cr is reasonable expectation.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

Surprising to see that they are not accepting ofbusiness and infra. Market as competition.

Both companies have over $2 billion revenue and have good tech stack.

B2B supply chain is getting digitised very fast. They must increase Tech spends.

Disc. - Invested

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

#SGmart did revenue of 500cr last quarter, just started two quarters back. They are targetting 15000cr in next 3 years

#Shankara did rev. of 4000cr last year, barely grown at 10% in last decade.

@SanjayGupta_APL is scaling exponentially, congrats on phenomenal execution sir.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

#Ofbusiness has developed platform that solves for customer whereas #SGMart are building for scale economics shared.

Future is intersection of both solving for customer and scale economics shared.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

@deepakshenoy If you sell today, that will attract new taxes.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

@earth2022 Difference in realized price and market price is channel commission that should be adjusted. M3M another player is gurgaon market give channel commission are as high as 8%, why unnecessarily inflate GDV and reduce margin.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

@Sharad9Dubey @ETNOWlive @ETNowSwadesh GDV will be 4000 cr, inventory in gurgaon is too low and will be sold out in no time.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

Some companies are conglomerate, so different valuation criteria are to be used .

Disclosure - Invested, At lower level, for education purpose.

[Exponential @Fin_Facts]

JDA partner has revenue share of roughly 35 % and luxury project cost in gurgaon per/Sq ft is around 6K/Sq ft. They will do upwards of 30% EBITDA. At 2100 cr EBITDA and 200 cr rental yields valuations are reasonable.

Mcap/ Resi Presales valuations of max is reasonable