Floki Woodman

Technology Geek👨🏻‍💻
Crypto Trading Enjoy Life😎
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[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the US could lose its status as the world's reserve currency within the next 25 years.

[STEPH IS CRYPTO @Steph_iscrypto]

🚨MASSIVE: 🇺🇸The White House is now reviewing the FINAL Crypto CLARITY Act text.

Big news expected TOMORROW!

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

After a long time on track, hope i would be here more often.

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Major packaged-goods firms, retailers and food makers are seeing substantial increases in overseas revenue that are outpacing slowing domestic sales. https://t.co/lfnUpKFrbz

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

You don't need a new week, a new month or a new year to start fresh. You just need a decision. Make today count. Just believe in yourself and stay focused.👀

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

Edinburgh feels like the movie set. Truly unreal..!!

[✶ @echoesofworld]

Edinburgh after rain

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🇹🇼 LATEST: Taiwan will enforce the Travel Rule on domestic crypto transfers from October, requiring user data sharing and extra details for transfers above $930.

https://t.co/LuANpf3kej

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

THE U.S. IS PREPARING TO SELL U.S. DOLLARS AND BUY JAPANESE YEN FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS CENTURY

The US Treasury has told a number of banks it may intervene in the yen market today and that they should "stand ready for future action."

The last time the US bought yen and sold dollars was June 1998.

Here is how it got here.

USD/JPY climbed to 163.99 this month, the weakest the yen has been in almost 40 years.

The Iran war pushed oil higher, and Japan imports nearly all of its energy in dollars. A weak yen makes every barrel more expensive at home.

Japan has been trying to stop this alone for months. In April and May it spent a record 11.7 trillion yen ($73 billion). The yen made new lows anyway.

Then everything changed in the last 24 hours.

- Thursday night, in New York hours, USD/JPY crashed from 162.80 to 157.95 in about an hour

- A 3.3% move, the yen's biggest one day gain in almost two years

- South Korea sold dollars the same night. The won hit a 9-month high

USD/JPY falling means the yen is getting stronger.

Then the reports came in.

- Market sources said Japan bought yen and sold dollars, its first intervention in three months

- US authorities reportedly ran a rate check at around 2:30 a.m. Tokyo time

- Bessent told Fox Business the yen "seems very undervalued to me" and "the currency is very cheap"

- Mimura, Japan's top currency official, said Tokyo is "receiving support from the United States that goes beyond psychological support"

A rate check is when officials call banks to ask for exchange rate quotes. It is the step taken right before intervention.

Asked if the US support included rate checks, Mimura said it "would include that as well."

Then the BOJ met.

- Rates held at 1% on an 8-1 vote. One board member wanted 1.25%

- The BOJ's own forecast has inflation at 2.5% this fiscal year, above its 2% target

- Within hours USD/JPY was back above 160

Central bank data reportedly points to $53 billion to $59 billion spent in that single night.

That is likely the largest one day currency operation Japan has ever run, and the market erased it in a morning.

Then Washington stepped in.

Reuters reported the US Treasury had told a number of banks it may intervene in the yen market today, with the message sent through the New York Fed.

This was serious.

Japan acting alone has failed in 2022, in 2024, and again this year at record size. The last two times the US joined in, 1985 and 1998, the dollar turned.

Markets reacted immediately and S&P500 crashed 1.20% in 40 minutes, wiping out roughly $995 billion after the news.

The reason is the carry trade.

Traders borrow yen at near-zero rates and buy US stocks and bonds with it. Net short yen positions sit at $11.65 billion, close to a two year high.

When USD/JPY falls fast, those loans get more expensive and positions are closed by selling what they bought.

August 2024 showed how that looks. One BOJ rate hike pushed USD/JPY down, and stocks and crypto crashed hard.

From here, there are two outcomes.

A fast drop in USD/JPY forces selling and pressures every asset funded by cheap yen money.

A weaker dollar over time does the opposite, and pushes capital toward hard assets and risk assets.

Japan is running out of room.

It will not raise rates fast enough because the government does not want higher debt costs, so it burns reserves instead.

Japan seems to be in a never ending loop.

[Binance Academy @BinanceAcademy]

Tether just reported its Q2 profits jumped 50% to $1.5 billion.

How does a crypto company whose product is always worth exactly $1.00 make billions in profit? The answer lies in how stablecoins are designed and what traditional assets they hold in reserve to maintain that peg.

Understand the mechanics behind the market's largest stablecoin and how it functions 👇
https://t.co/huTq8S4gSd

[Melvin @MelvinInvests]

The market's ripping today and here is exactly why we go higher from here (Save this).

Iran de escalation is the driver, Trump reportedly postponed or called off a planned strike on Iran, citing progress in negotiations and a pivot back toward diplomacy and markets are welcoming the reduced risk of a broader conflict along with lower odds of a Strait of Hormuz disruption. Iran's denied talks are even happening in some reports and we've seen this exact pattern before, headlines flip fast on this front, but the immediate reaction across risk assets is positive.

That de-escalation is directly behind oil crashing 5 to 6%+ today. Lower energy costs ease inflation pressure, support consumer and corporate spending, and take weight off the broader economy and that's flowing straight into Treasury yields which are falling across the curve as the market prices in lower inflation risk. Lower yields are exactly what growth and rate sensitive stocks needed after Friday's spike to multi year highs.

There's also a macro story helping the bond market, the US and Japan are reportedly acting together to prop up the yen, which had gotten very weak, and that's easing some of the upward pressure that had been building on both US yields and the dollar.

On the company specific side, Amazon is up another 5% today building on last week's AWS strength and gains are showing up more in software and consumer names early on. Bristol Myers Squibb is surging close to 10% on reports of early-stage merger talks with AstraZeneca that could create a roughly $400 billion pharma giant, while AstraZeneca shares are moving the other way on the news.

But here's the bigger shift I think is actually happening underneath all of this. I think the market is finally recognizing that the AI capex story isn't just spending anymore but it's actually converting into real returns. Amazon just ripped 13 to 14% last week on AWS and AI strength, Microsoft posted an 18% jump in fiscal Q4 revenue driven by cloud and AI, and Google's cloud business has been putting up 80%+ growth this year. That's the exact proof of ROI the market spent all of July demanding and punishing companies for not showing fast enough. For weeks the bear case was capex keeps growing but where's the payoff and now three of the biggest hyperscalers on earth are answering that question with actual accelerating revenue tied directly to AI infrastructure spend. That's a real narrative shift and it's exactly why I think this rally has legs beyond just oil and yields easing.

We've also got a stacked earnings week ahead, Palantir tonight, AMD and SpaceX-adjacent names tomorrow, which will be the next real catalyst for the AI and chip complex specifically. If those prints confirm the same pattern we just saw from Amazon, Microsoft and Google, capex turning into visible, accelerating revenue, that combined with falling yields and reduced geopolitical risk is about as good a setup as this trade has had in weeks. I'm buying here, make sure to follow me @melvininvests and If you want to see exactly what I'm buying through this, check out the link below and join me.

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

@MAKACHAIN_ That's a really tight poll...Clearly everything matters here.

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

@PrimeXDC Efficiency just leveled up with these updates, great work @PrimeXDC!

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

@Gems_Trade_

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

@TheoremNetwork Strong security & audits are really crucial for building trust in new network.

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

@wasabicard Compliance & scalability are the real game changers!

[Gems Trade @Gems_Trade_]

How do you prefer to protect your capital in volatile markets?

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

@MAKACHAIN_ @0xZeeve Gas stress is real, ready for the solutions!! 👍🏻

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

@0xZeeve @MAKACHAIN_ About time @MAKACHAIN_ solved the friction issue! Ready to tune in.

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

@MAKACHAIN_ The '$0.10 flat fee' part is music to my ears. Really amazing!!

[Floki Woodman @FlokiWoodman]

@MAKACHAIN_ @PlanBElsalvador @mmerge_io Busy schedule ahead! Great to see the team so active on the ground.