François Cattelain

Concerned citizen
Other account at @CattelainFrano1

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

Ukraine doesn't need a "reassuring" force. It needs a Russian soldiers killing force.
Is it so hard to understand for countries like France and the UK?
Cowardice is not a winning strategy to defend Europe.

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

@PedroGashishkin @dszeligowski I understand that it's 400% unrealistic.
But we can't do anything unless we first know what we want.
That doesn't imply mistaking dreams for reality.

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

I find it very remarkable that even those in Russia that are capable of seeing clearly through all the SMO's failures still continue to indulge in these ridiculous fantasies.

No one will take Russia's nuclear weapons or sovereignity.
This paranoia is Putin's ultimate victory.

[Paweł Krawczyk @[email protected] @kravietz2048]

Dokładnie ten sam scenariusz ("w razie przegranej zabiorą nam wszystko, włącznie z bronią jądrową i suwerennością") pojawiał się na "czerwonym" slajdzie u Małofiejewa i Dugina. Wiadomo, że chodzi o przerażenie elit i ludności - przyjdzie NATO i każe im wybierać jedną z 56 płci.

Proste pytanie: kto 24 lutego 2022 wypowiedział znamienne słowa "podjąłem decyzję o rozpoczęciu specjalnej operacji wojskowej", która zapoczątkowała łańcuch wydarzeń mogący istotnie doprowadzić do przegranej Rosji?

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

I remember @general_ben talking about "making Crimea untenable" a few years ago.
Sounds like that's still on the menu.
But it will probably be a long grind.
Maybe.
@RALee85

[Ukraine Control Map @UAControlMap]

Daily Ukraine map thread for Friday 5th June 2026

Five cargo ships were significantly damaged overnight in the Sea of Azov by Ukrainian drone strikes, in a new move by the 1st Unmanned Center. A base to the east of Mariupol was also hit, but not shown, and Donetsk airport drone base was also struck.

Trucks and infrastructure across the occupied territories continue to be struck too, with Crimea now under significant rationing for fuel.

Geolocations follow

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

@KnightMirko @michaeldweiss I strongly disagree.
If we lose the moral argument, we lose the entire argument.

There is no need to go low to win against Russia's propaganda.
On the contrary.
cc @michaeldweiss

Have a nice day.

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

@KnightMirko @michaeldweiss I strongly disagree.
If we lose the moral argument, we lose the entire argument.

There is no need to go low to win against Russia's propaganda.
On the contrary.
cc @michaeldweiss

Have a nice day.

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

@KnightMirko @michaeldweiss Why?
I truly appreciate the great work done by @michaeldweiss generally.
But I'm not sure that mocking someone for his physical appearance really elevates the debate.
Any thoughts on that?

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

@BrunoTertrais Oui, et merci de le reposter!

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

"The real conclusion is not that Europe is “collapsing”, but that Europe did not build enough new productivity while the world became larger and less Atlantic-centred."

A big heartfelt thank you to @AdrienAbecassis for injecting some sense into the Euro-declinism madness.

[Adrien Abecassis @AdrienAbecassis]

Interesting comparison, but it’s actually wrong.

The “30% to 17%” line combines two distortions. First, it forgets Brexit: a $2.9tn economy is counted in 2008 and not in 2024. Second, exchange rates : the comparison is highly sensitive to them, and this specific period is biased in every possible way: it compares a highly unusual euro peak in 2008 (an annual average of $1.47) with a much lower euro in 2024 (around $1.08.

Use a simple sensitivity test. If EU-27 GDP is converted at $1.20/€ in both 2008 and 2024, rather than at $1.47 in 2008 and $1.08 in 2024, the EU share moves from 21.8% to 19.1%. Yes, that’s a decline, but it’s not the fall of Rome.

The irony is that if you want to make the “30% to 17%” point, there is a more robust way to do it: use the same World Bank current-dollar GDP series, the same EU perimeter, and compare… 1980 to today. Then the EU falls from 28.9% of world GDP in 1980 to 17.6% in 2024.

You may note that is also closer in duration to the Qing comparison: roughly four to five decades. But here is the catch: demography. From 1980 to 2024, the EU’s population rose from 408m to 450m. World population rose from 4.44bn to 8.14bn. Europe’s population share therefore fell from 9.2% to 5.5%. Holding Europe’s relative GDP per head constant, this demographic dilution alone would take its GDP share from 28.9% to about 17.4%. The actual 2024 figure is 17.6%. In current-dollar terms, demographic dilution explains essentially **all** of the long-run fall.

That is not what happened to Qing China. Maddison’s estimates put China’s population at about 381m in 1820 and 358m in 1870; its share of world population fell from roughly 36.6% to 28.2%. But its GDP share fell from 32.9% to 17.2%, and its GDP per head fell from about 90% of the world average to 61%. China was diluted and impoverished.

What’s happening is that Europe has being diluted by the rise of the rest: demographics, catch-up growth in emerging markets, China, India, and the arithmetic of a world no longer centred on the Atlantic. That is not “decline” in the simple sense ; more a decentering.

This does not exonerate Europe. It has underperformed inside that demographic dilution, it has weak productivity, overregulation, expensive energy, and it missed digital and AI cycle. Europe could have converted a rich, educated, integrated market into far more power per capita.

So yes, Europe must wake up. But you know very well, since you quote de Gaulle extensively, that declinism is an old elite narcotic - it’s dramatic and flattering. Do not take every claim at face value. The real conclusion is not that Europe is “collapsing”, but that Europe did not build enough new productivity while the world became larger and less Atlantic-centred.

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

JFC

This comparison is simply stupid.
There is no other word.

European declinism is quietly turning into an industry, if not a religious belief.
Europeans indulging in it are simply committing self sabotage.

Debating what's wrong is good and necessary.
Self sabotage isn't.

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

People don't grasp the sheer speed and scale of Europe's decline.

This 👇 is an extraordinary number shared by Luis Vassy, director of Sciences Po (one of France's most famous schools) in this article: https://t.co/BQbkXb2kPl

He calculated that the EU is declining 3 times faster than the Qing dynasty at the height of China's century of humiliation.

Back then, it took China 50 years to drop from 30% of world GDP to 17%, whereas it took the EU just 17 years (from 2008 to 2025).

Insane 😢 And, sadly, given the current direction and the EU's systematically suicidal policy choices (latest example: https://t.co/6EYJgdXVVo), it's just the beginning...

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

Boom!

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

Zelensky’s message to Putin (and Trump): “We have heard that you were promised in Alaska the resolution of certain issues concerning Ukraine and Europe. But you can see for yourself that Ukrainian and European issues are not decided in Anchorage.”

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

@mfa_russia 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

Obviously, being very friendly to Russia would magically solve all of Germany's problems.

The fact that Russia is very busy waging an imperialistic, quasi-genocidal war on Ukraine is clearly an afterthought, here.

Thanks @kadmitriev, you're obviously Europe's best friend!

🤮🤮

[Kirill Dmitriev @kadmitriev]

@ernstwilhelm68 @SPIEF Germany is being destroyed by uncontrolled immigration, high energy costs, deindustrialization, false narratives, and warmongering. AfD will save Germany from bureaucratic idiocy.

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

This is very remarkable.

Germany can't escape its fate as the biggest country in Europe, demographically and economically.
And with this comes an enormous responsibility.

Enthusiastically embracing Russia would be a stinging betrayal of all of Europe.

The stakes are very high.

[Kirill Dmitriev @kadmitriev]

Looking forward to building a great FUTURE together with AfD, Germany’s most popular party.

Along with AfD’s Deputy Chairman Markus Frohnmaier, I discussed the economic cooperation with Germany, including restarting the Russia-Germany-US business dialogue.

@SPIEF

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

@Felix_Nuno @LauraLoomer Yes.
But also, let's not forget that @LauraLoomer is basically reaping what she sowed.

It's nice to denounce Russian disinformation and manipulations.

It would have been even nicer to not have encouraged all the self destructive madness in the US in the first place.

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

@Felix_Nuno @LauraLoomer Yes.
But also, let's not forget that @LauraLoomer is basically reaping what she sowed.

It's nice to denounce Russian disinformation and manipulations.

It would have been even nicer to not have encouraged all the self destructive madness in the US in the first place.

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

Yet another reminder that the overall European strategy towards Ukraine is based on cowardice, betrayal and hypocrisy.

Thank you @OTregub for saying all the right things.
Again.

[Olena Tregub @OTregub]

Article about my impressions from recent conferences and meetings across Europe.

Europeans increasingly talk about the lessons they can learn from Ukraine. They speak about Ukraine as Europe’s shield and as the main security provider.

Yet many seem to forget one crucial fact:

Ukraine is still fighting a hot war.

While discussions focus on future security architecture, Ukrainians are being killed today. Civilians are being murdered in their beds. Cities are being bombed every night.

Ukraine is not only a lesson for Europe. Ukraine is an ally in urgent need of help right now. https://t.co/gjdRfFLwNh

[Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture]

2/ Key findings in the report include the following:
•Western military institutions exhibit a systemic learning deficit that prioritises exploitation of existing competencies over exploration of new solutions. The result is dangerously slow adaptation to battlefield innovations, demonstrated in Ukraine and Iran despite unprecedented access to openly available evidence.
•The inability to rapidly implement proven innovations is a failure of organisational culture, of promotion systems that reward conformity over innovation, and of political leadership that fails to demand institutional accountability for learning.
•If Western nations are to compete with the new authoritarian learning and adaptation bloc formed by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, an array of rapid organisational, cultural, technological, and leadership philosophy changes is needed in military institutions, including in Australia.

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

Let's go!

[松沢しげふみ | MATSUZAWA Shigefumi #シゲは勝つ @matsuzawaoffice]

パトリオット・ミサイルをウクライナに供与せよ❗️

今日の参議院外交防衛委員会で、私は小泉防衛大臣に迫った。

ウクライナはロシアからの無差別ミサイル攻撃に必死に防戦している。しかし、迎撃ミサイルが足りない。その結果、多くの犠牲者を産んでいる。

日本は防衛装備品移転のルールを緩和して、武器輸出が可能となった。ウクライナにパトリオットを供与するには、まだいくつものハードルがあるが、決して超えられないものではない❗️

ゼレンスキー大統領は、パトリオット供与を渇望している。今こそ、日本は目に見える能動的な支援に踏み込むべきだ❗️

小泉大臣、積極的平和主義のリーダーシップを発揮してほしい。政治の決断が求められている。

委員会での質疑の様子は、明日YouTubeにアップしますので、ご覧ください。

#パトリオット・ミサイル　#ウクライナ戦争　#防衛装備品移転

[François Cattelain @FlyingFrenchFrg]

@michaeldweiss Yep.
And frankly some good news for Ukraine in the short term.

But also some bad news for long term intelligence coordination in DC.
The ODNI was created for a reason.