DataFramed

A Canadian economist interested in history, data, demographics, politics and culture.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@robinhanson My theory is that the right doesn’t actually exist. It’s too gauche in polite circles to say welfare spending is bad and immigration is too high, so in practice they demur and the right is just the Center left.

Just take the label off conservative governments and you can’t tell

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@Noahpinion And anti-abortion is the rightist cause that stymies all other conservative causes

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@SteveSaretsky In Toronto, but really across the country, we have rising months of housing inventory (6mo plus for TO condo). How much higher would this be corrected for delistings? I.E. how much shadow inventory is out there?

Feels like another 20% drawdown is already baked in.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@eyeslasho Canada, Nova Scotia

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@nathanallebach I think right NIMBYs would flip to YIMBY (for many reasons including freedom, raising fertility, etc), IFF we were much more aggressive about crime.

So much is downstream of people not wanting to expose their kids to crime.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@nonebusinesshey Key questions are whether Hispanics will come to identify as white over time and raise white fertility in the process and whether southern states effectively ban abortion and whether this induces a behavioural response.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@maisey_robert @MikePMoffatt Possible, but unlikely. In a country without access to high immigration like Japan they invest in labour saving capital so that GDP per worker/working age rises rapidly. Check out the chart above.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@SteveSaretsky You would know better than me, but I suspect that the economic realities which would prompt BoC cuts would also cause spreads between govt and mortgage rates to widen as banks hunker down.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@culturaltutor High density, but explicitly designed to maximize amenities for children (including large square footage homes) and the compete extirpation of crime/criminals.

In the modern west density means disorder and anti-natalist design.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@MikePMoffatt If rapid population growth causes slower gdp per capita growth by deskilling the economy (see immigrant earnings in recent decades), I don’t count that as an advantage.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@cremieuxrecueil Fascinating, do you know of such studies for Canada? Self reported indigenous ancestry has roughly tripled since 1990.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@EricDLombardi In Canada population growth is a policy choice. There is a way to have our cake and eat it, we’re just too polite to entertain the notion.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@EricDLombardi Federal government controls OSFI, pandemic stim, and immigration numbers and therefore demand. If voters have signalled they are NIMBYs provincially, shouldn’t the feds set other policies such that our society isn’t destroyed for young families?

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@geoeconomic10 @lurker66379608 Countries that have become addicted to immigration have lower fertility rates, but what if the causality runs the other way? Immigration puts huge strain on housing costs for young families and destroys national identity, the continuance of which was a motivator for fertility.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@wanyeburkett We made a comfortable retirement the responsibility of other peoples kids instead of our own via the welfare state, culture doesn’t award parenthood status especially for men, and technology makes the opportunity cost higher.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@Noahpinion Surely Philippines

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@geoeconomic10 @RealMrPlastic @Farhadhk Depends on city, but 2018 price in major metros at these rates is still pretty high, even accounting for inflationary wage gains.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@michaelbd Gods of the copybook headings

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@MoreBirths For the US: large scale Hispanic immigration and the payback of tempo effects which lowered fertility in the 1980s.

Not sure about baby boom either to be honest. Did completed fertility move much? I thought it was all about tempo impacts of the war.

[DataFramed @FramedData]

@Aaronal16 Are they now living in the west? The decline implies that Christians are ~30% of all Syrian refugees in the west.