FreeGerbs

Long-Term Investor. Financially independent. Tesla referral link:

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

@txoilman40 @SenSanders This is probably the most accurate post I’ve seen on this

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

@DudeWhoInvests I think this has more to do with risk tolerance and capital efficiency than hard work. I have been successful not because of raw work ethic but because I’m not afraid of risking capital. I also could make more if I owned a business and risked more capital with less safety net.

[SpaceX @SpaceX]

Full duration and full thrust 33-engine static fire with Super Heavy V3

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

@CSI_Starbase Holy crap. This looks so much more intense than OLM1

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

@SawyerMerritt This is perfect. We have a small fleet of 5 class 8 trucks for a lumberyard with local deliveries around 150-200 miles per day. Overnight charging would be perfect and we wouldn’t need a mega charger.

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

I think people are underestimating the Semi. It has the potential to disrupt the freight industry

[Tesla Semi @tesla_semi]

First Semi off high volume line

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

I think this is a decent breakdown. The big variable is that $1/mile will decrease over time. To truly disrupt transportation it will need to move below $0.50 per mile or 30-40% GM. The TAM at that price would be massive. The goal isn’t to replace Uber, it’s to replace car ownership

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

@Dr_Crossroads I think it’s fair. I love Tesla, and still have a bunch of shares but the risk reward is difficult to justify based on their execution. Multiples will compress and the growth is already baked in. I haven’t sold yet, but there are other good opportunities in the market

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

@cybrtrkguy It will just be a pop up tent with an assembly line to swap cameras and computers. You just don’t want this clogging up service centers. The value is in the billions of dollars of cars that are already produced. It costs way less to retrofit than it would to make a new cybercab.

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

@Tslachan I noticed this too. I wonder if they’re dedicating to a Robotaxi/optimus/rumored compact vehicle. It is interesting though because the export BESS business should be strong

[Tesla Robotaxi @robotaxi]

Robotaxi now rolling out in Dallas & Houston 🤠

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

It wouldn’t be debt. Look up the concept of helicopter money. I’m not saying it would work, but please try to understand the concepts he’s proposing. It would be to offset the deflationary pressures from AI/robotics. The problem is massive inequality will come in the transition as the layoffs will be lumpy and concentrated in certain industries. How do you have UBI in the transition?

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

@farzyness Direct payments/helicopter money will not increase taxes. This is the part that breaks people’s brains

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

I really struggle with UBI, but I think most people don’t even understand what’s being discussed

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

I think most people are misinterpreting this. He’s saying printing money and direct checks to citizens. This will offset the massively deflationary forces caused by AI/Robotics which will cause all products to become a function of their input material costs (which will also decrease in cost). This could create a deflationary spiral, but direct checks would be an offsetting inflationary force. You would not want to do this via government spending which creates debt like Covid stimulus checks. I still don’t know how I feel about this personally, especially since implementation would be lumpy and chaotic. It may be inevitable though due to market forces. The difference with communism is that it’s build on an assumption of abundance. @grok can you review my assumptions?

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

I think most people are misinterpreting this. He’s saying printing money and direct checks to citizens. This will offset the massively deflationary forces caused by AI/Robotics which will cause all products to become a function of their input material costs (which will also decrease in cost). This could create a deflationary spiral, but direct checks would be an offsetting inflationary force. You would not want to do this via government spending which creates debt like Covid stimulus checks. I still don’t know how I feel about this personally, especially since implementation would be lumpy and chaotic. It may be inevitable though due to market forces. The difference with communism is that it’s build on an assumption of abundance. @grok can you review my assumptions?

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

The promise to take care of HW3 owners likely will only apply to those that bought FSD outright, some of which have already transferred that license to a HW4 vehicle. I hope Tesla can create a straightforward upgrade process. HW3 owners that didn’t pay for FSD will not be upgraded.

I totally understand the question and why Tesla enthusiasts are asking, but with the FSD take rate and transfers I’d be curious what % it truly is.

In the context of the broader TSLA investment narrative, this HW3 question is not important. Unsupervised on HW4 timing is way more important.

[Ashok Elluswamy @aelluswamy]

@wholemars The European regulation is followed by a lot more countries than just the ones in EU.

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

@smdcapital Exactly.. and missed deadlines = execution risk premium on that discount rate. Annoying is the right word

[FreeGerbs @FreeGerbs]

@wholemars It will be pretty nostalgic going to NYC and paying extra to ride in an old fashioned yellow cab as the rest of the country moves forward