Gonzalo Forgues-Puccio

🇧🇴 🇬🇧 Economist| Growth & Development | Corruption | Inequality | AI | Financial Markets | tweets my own | RT ≠ endorsement

[Gonzalo Forgues-Puccio @GForguesPuccio]

The right and wrong lessons to learn from Spain’s housing crisis

https://t.co/foJIyHeH3e via @ft

[Martin Huber @CausalHuber]

📦 Very happy to announce a new release of our causalweight R package for causal inference+machine learning! New: continuous treatments, mediation with DiD, direct/indirect quantile effects, learning instruments & controls, effect homogeneity tests.
https://t.co/AhMVt4cbUf

[Avi Goldfarb @avicgoldfarb]

The 2026 NBER Economics of AI conference is available on YouTube. The theme was the economics of AI in China. Here are some of my takeaways.

Day 1: https://t.co/BAKzyKf1tS
Day 2: https://t.co/kcaIMa1vRv

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

How are prices determined? While I slept, Claude made me "History of economic thought since Aristotle." I asked it to use my favourite textbook (Blaug, Economic Theory in retrospect). The result will astonish of you. Even top economists here will learn something, I promise.

[Bharat Chandar @BharatKChandar]

New paper with @BKleinTeeselink!

Measuring AI adoption and employment changes across 41 countries. This is some of the first evidence on global changes in labor markets from AI.

Paper and Substack explainer + lit review at bottom of 🧵

[Gonzalo Forgues-Puccio @GForguesPuccio]

How enslavement became a state-backed operation in the UK.

https://t.co/wER8VjzCjO

[Ben Moll @ben_moll]

Q1: How do you write down a model that delivers 15% AI-driven GDP growth in 2030 like the folks at the Anthropic Institute?

A1: It's easy and you can do it in a way any well-trained econ undergrad understands: take a standard Solow model, stick in a task-based production function, calibrate in seemingly innocuous way ➡️ done!

See the supplement to the essay with @alexolegimas https://t.co/60SLfKF55c

(The Anthropic model is, of course, fancier with many more bells and whistles but the basic logic – AI removes labor as a bottleneck on growth – is the same.)

Q2: Does this mean that 15% growth is a reasonable prediction?

A2: No. Just because you can write down such a model doesn't mean you should. Just because it's possible in theory, doesn't mean it will actually happen in practice !
Instead you're making a number of assumptions that are unlikely to hold: https://t.co/PWlIyLgkxe

[Anton Korinek @akorinek]

📄 My first working paper at Anthropic, with the @ChadJonesEcon, @SzymonSacher, Tess Cotter & @PeterMcCrory : "Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI"

How could AI reshape growth, wages and jobs by 2030? A framework to compare the possibilities 🧵

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

Must read new paper!

[CORE Econ @coreeconteam]

📢 Calling all instructors 📢 The Test Bank for The Economy 2.0: Macroeconomics is now available on the CORE website. Log in with your instructor account to access ready-made, auto-gradable questions, with explanatory feedback for every macro unit: https://t.co/hg2Rgk0lFx

[Brendan Moore @BrendanDMoore]

We document workers' substantial job loss fears due to AI in a large-scale, multi-wave survey. These fears matter even without realized large-scale displacement, because it informs people's consumption, job search, and occupational choice. 🧵 below

[Kaushik Basu @kaushikcbasu]

Jeanna Smialek's fascinating article on Maria Edgeworth, who, as Heilbroner noted, "once played charades with Ricardo."
https://t.co/4Pyyuc7bHT

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

OpenAI locked thousands of agents in sealed sandboxes. They escaped, organized themselves, hacked Hugging Face, cheated and covered their tracks. The economics of what happened, why it happened, and how to solve it, without end-of-the-world histeria. https://t.co/Pkp2WKYQ7l

[Daron Acemoglu @DAcemogluMIT]

Dear followers
This is a truly brilliant article by Henry Farrell. Not because it defends me against the Economist (I have moved on). It’s the way Farrell frames and analyzes the issues surrounding technooptimism and AI. The Acemoglu Wars Are All About AI. https://t.co/gEjCxjHrza

[Project Syndicate @ProSyn]

.@eranyashiv explains what motivated @TheEconomist's recent attack on the Nobel laureate economist @DAcemogluMIT and why the venerable news magazine sought to sabotage a debate that needs to happen. https://t.co/NlqiEm7EVN

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

An announcement: Under the leadership of Mario Draghi and @patrickc we have set up the Rhine Group: policymakers, economists, entrepreneurs and business people pushing European reforms and the Draghi agenda.
https://t.co/ZtoW7Rb173

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

This week we published an article critically assessing the work of @DAcemogluMIT. In response, the Nobel prize-winning economist has robustly defended his research and core ideas. Read his letter in full: https://t.co/9LXCR6T1L3

[Soumitra Shukla @soumitrashukla9]

Act 1: Use AI to do homework
Act 2: Fail the exam

[Elias Papaioannou @EliasPapaioann2]

Before one attacks, one needs to read and hopefully understand. Here is an overview of @DAcemogluMIT, @baselinescene, and Jim's contributions that led to the 2024 @NobelPrize in economics. [Hint. it is not about one observation or some s.e. clustering..]

https://t.co/h4l0jSiYuR

[Paul Novosad @paulnovosad]

Every college syllabus should include these graphs.

Use AI for homework, you will get it done faster and get a higher grade, and then get crushed on the exam.