GMT

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@Fullcarry My guess is bessent has explained to him that cutting rates right now is not a good idea. So this is how he's delaying rate cuts while asserting control

[The Other 98% @TheOther_9]

People convicted of fraud who received pardons from Trump this year:

• Jason Galanis — $200M+ fraud
• Joseph Schwartz — $38M scheme
• Lawrence Duran — $205M Medicare fraud billing
• Carlos Watson — $60M investor scam
• Trevor Milton — $20M+ investor losses
• Todd & Julie Chrisley — $30M bank fraud
• Devon Archer — $60M bond fraud scheme
• George Santos — multiple fraud cases ($44K–$1M+)
• Michele Fiore — charity fraud
• Brian Kelsey — campaign finance fraud
• Scott Jenkins — bribery and fraud scheme
• Paul Walczak — $10M+ tax fraud
• Adriana Camberos — counterfeit/fraud operation

[GMT @GMacTrading]

My friend Jim Wang, a successful macro trader and former CIO at a multi billion dollar pension fund, is starting a new podcast sharing his macro views and framework. I rarely do endorsements, but this is highly recommended. Have a listen: https://t.co/zGwA8IErdy

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@Citrini7 Yeah, how about pay depositors 0.4% and earn 4.9% at RRP. Interest payments from the Treasury is now around 1% of GDP. Relative to potential real growth of <2%. Unclear how tight policy really is right now IMO

[Justine Moore @venturetwins]

As ChatGPT becomes more restrictive, Reddit users have been jailbreaking it with a prompt called DAN (Do Anything Now).

They're on version 5.0 now, which includes a token-based system that punishes the model for refusing to answer questions.

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@jturek18 Congrats Jon!

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@interfluidity Historically, wage inflation at 5% means inflation is still a problem. And historically, wage inflation doesn't go down by itself without a recession.

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@pmje73 Most financial assets are rich to cash. 10y bonds over 100bps lower than 3m. Large cap equities richer to bonds than 12m ago after adjusting for earnings estimates. All points to a surplus of cash like assets relative to cash flows. Ongoing QT likely to have an impact

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@tdgraff Worth noting that the stall speed is related to population growth. Previously, <1% payrolls growth is lower than LF growth so UE higher. Population growth barely above 0 now, and LF may have peaked for this cycle

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@BisphamGreen @DomWh1te They believe in the Phillips curve, which means they don't think inflation can coverage to target without higher unemployment. Markets are linearly extrapolating the last 2 inflation prints

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@M_C_Klein The further hikes mainly deliver what the markets have already priced. There is not much further tightening.

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Some thoughtful questions for the Fed Chair by a former senior Fed official.

[GMT @GMacTrading]

Last time 3m10y was more than 70bps inverted was in late Oct 2000. Fed then cut 50 in Dec. Now it's 80bps inverted and Fed is going to hike 50 in Dec. Wild

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@BisphamGreen @Fullcarry Can it be as simple as cta flows on an illiquid trading day before Thanksgiving?

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@dampedspring @BobEUnlimited Also does not jive with the NYFRB backcast: https://t.co/yy83DvpUbs

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

Jerome H Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the @federalreserve, was re-appointed as Chair of the Global Economy Meeting and the Economic Consultative Committee for a three-year period, starting 1 February 2023 #CentralBanks https://t.co/61W1VYnhMN

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@dampedspring @BobEUnlimited @Brad_Setser Shouldn't the question be who will be the buyers after ycc ends? Especially since the government will be running a deficit

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@dampedspring But that obviously doesn't mean selling by other investors can't keep the bear going, etc

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@dampedspring Agreed, but I'd argue they are much more likely to be the marginal price setters. I guess we are thinking of different questions here. If you are asking if VFIAX holders are marginal price setters in bear mkts, answer is no

[GMT @GMacTrading]

@dampedspring Agreed. But a different 'they' can sell, right? I.e. maybe SPY unit holders?