If you want to be successful in the speculation business, don't be a follower; be a leader.
After training thousands of profitable traders over the years, one thing that separates those who succeed from those who do not is "self-leadership"
If you have that, you can make it work with any setup. If you don't have that, nothing works.
Work on your self-leadership.
There is one writing exercise that I feel can help you far more than writing a trading journal.
I call it a Pre/Post One-Liner.
It’s absolutely simple, and you can make it part of your journaling.
Step 1: Every day, before the market opens, write a line or two about what you think will happen to the broader market and your favorite names/positions in general.
Step 2: After the market closes, write what actually happened.
Step 3: Do this every day. Rinse and repeat.
Even doing this over just a few days will show you how powerful it is.
If you are consistently right about the market, it tells you to lean into what you are already doing. If you are consistently wrong about what you expected, it tells you that your process needs more polishing or pivoting.
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P.S.: When I say “consistently right,” I mean you are right more often than wrong, and when wrong you aren’t way off target.
Similarly, “consistently wrong” means the opposite.
All these traders telling each other you need to be disciplined are barking up the wrong tree. Discipline always breaks down sooner or treater and it is such a forced way to change behavior. Instead change your beliefs. It is permanent solution
To change your trading behavior, you need to change your beliefs. No amount of discipline or ra-ra motivational books or slogans can do that. We change beliefs when we gain new insights or information, are shocked out of our current beliefs, or reflect. Study the psychology of belief change if you are having recurring trading problems.
I do not see the appeal of watches.
I do not see the appeal of shoes.
I do not see the appeal of cars.
I do not see the appeal of clothes.
I see the appeal in spending an entire weekday reading in a park while I can hear my sons laughing in the background. And being able to do that ANYTIME AT WILL!
Complexity impresses people.
Simplicity makes me money.
If your 8 y/o cousin can't understand the basic premise of your system, there's a decent chance you don't fully understand it either.
I could explain the core of my entire trading system in 2 words.
"There are two types of stock moves. Magnitude moves and duration moves.
Magnitude moves are moves in which a stock makes a very big, rapid move. The magnitude and speed of the move are critical in this kind of move. Stock goes up 20-50% in just a few days, or makes a triple-digit move in a few weeks.
These are explosive momentum burst moves and are more common.
Duration moves are when the stock keeps going up for a long time. But speed may not be fast. There are stocks that go up slowly in a stair-step fashion.
As a trader, you need to choose which one to focus on, as that has implications for your entries, exits, and sizing.
I only focus on magnitude moves. I have no interest in duration moves.
Lloyd Blankfein (former CEO of Goldman Sachs) on something most people get backwards about risk management:
"you'd think a risk manager is always trying to repress people from taking risk."
"sometimes a good risk manager has to promote the idea that people take risk. because that's what you're there for."
"if you don't take risk, you don't move forward. there's no growth."
"the alternative to never taking any risk will give you the comfort of not losing money for yourself or anybody else, but you also won't make progress."
this is true inside Goldman Sachs and it's true in trading. after recovering a drawdown, the instinct can be to cut everything and take a break. sometimes the right risk management decision is the opposite, the system is working, the drawdown is normal, and pulling back is the actual mistake.
"It's not about a portfolio, it's about a business that can re-create great portfolios again and again."
- Alec Litowitz, early Citadel partner
the edge was never one trade. it was a process that finds them on repeat.
Parag Parikh on Trading in stock markets:
“I have seen so many bankruptcies because people went on doing short term trading.”
“I know people who would have symptoms like an alcoholic and they become uneasy if they didn’t sit in front of trading screen the whole day.”
“The environment is so vicious that it tempts you to do something all the time. This is bad for the younger generation.”
This is a 15 Year old video, recorded in 2011, but the message still remains the same. 🔥
Immediately kill. Swing trading is like Tinder dating if action does not start after entry just run. Find another Tinder date. Never hesitate to get out if trade is not working.
If I’d be trading only Indian Equities these last 2 years, I’d be in shambles right now.
A few years ago I was cursing my luck for being placed in a completely different time zone from India.
That move has now become one of my greatest strengths.
Everything happens for a reason. 🙏