Planets are wombs. You'd never go back in, except for recreation. Transhumanism with continuity. Singularity is also psychological, archetypes are breaking.
An unintended side effect of frontier intelligence going underground is the AI Labs will be forced to release products in every single white collar vertical that exists, to make up for the foregone revenue they would have otherwise received from selling generalised intelligence to the public.
They'll be forced to use their hidden AGI to distill specialised models in each vertical which are very good at one industry, then sell those models instead.
This is a second order consequence of the government intervening in free markets, creating a more unequal society whereby the only people that escape the permanent underclass are those who work at one of two AI Labs.
Everyone else will be subsumed by their models.
Truly retarded.
All this, from stealing the public's own data and using it to train models.
Silicon Valley has an almighty reckoning ahead of it, from the sheer hubris of thinking that normal people will be okay with being replaced by a bunch of autistic nerds playing God with models that would not exist without the exhaust from their historical labour.
Over the last few weeks, the AI doomers got their way.
AI got gated, and tangled up, and the industry is in tatters. Frontier AI is getting ripped out of our hands in real time.
A lot of us saw this coming, and we’ve been fighting it every step of the way, but we’re losing. And we’re losing badly.
Openness. Creativity. Open access. Open source. Moderation. Politicians that understand economies and that see having winning tech companies and giving people broad access to tech are a dying breed. We’re losing the fight.
Populism and stupidity and NIMBY anti-tech feelings are running riot, and we’re making dumber and dumber decisions at a societal level.
Right now, we’re not building Star Trek or the Culture. We’re building Neuromancer, a dark cyberpunk future of mega-corps and unilateral power and perpetual rain.
Been saying the same for awhile.
This act is still on the books, although the very same type of leftists have attempted to water it down using the courts.
Our Consitution is not a “suicide pact” that radicals can use to destroy the Republic.
The law should be re-invoked immediately.
We didn’t lose countless American lives fighting Communism to “win” the Cold War only to lose the whole country on our own soul.
Enough.
I'm developing a deep hatred for anyone who restrict our AI usage
Imagine if someone decided:
> whether you can drive a car
> if you can use the internet
> how much electricity you can consume
> IF you can own a smartphone
NOBODY WOULD TOLERATE THESE.
yet... for some reason... we let the U.S. government block us from using AI models?!
enough.
Chamath accused Sam Altman and Dario Amodei of running a three-act playbook where apocalyptic AI warnings were timed to fundraising rounds, not safety concerns.
If you think this is a fringe take then you are so wrong.
This is one of the most connected investors in Silicon Valley saying the quiet part out loud.
Act one: a lab needs money. So they seed the conversation with apocalyptic language. AI could end humanity. Regulation is urgent. The threat is real. The press runs it. Policymakers panic.
Act two: the agitators are now fully wound up. Critics of the other lab pile on. Their fundraising process gets complicated. Their model release gets scrutinized. The chaos benefits whoever started it.
Act three: the same lab that warned about extinction flips the narrative. Here comes the mythical new release. It will solve everything. It could also end the world. Investors clamor to get in before it does both.
Sam Altman said it himself in April. He called Anthropic's safety rhetoric fear-based marketing used to justify concentrating AI control among self-declared trustworthy companies. The CEO of the rival lab gave the same diagnosis.
Chamath called it deeply selfish.
His reasoning was simple.
These labs took the most important economic tool of our lifetime and wrapped it in their own personal agendas. Every person who could benefit from this technology watched the people building it turn it into a weapon for settling scores.
The doom cycle was never about safety.
It had a release schedule.
Watch the full show here on The Axios Show: https://t.co/rKZrmN9JFX
Great stuff from Dean, per usual.
To sum it up:
1. The Trump admin had to do something
2. They don't know what to do
3. So they are just doing whatever
Our only saving grace is that this puts the entire US economy on a precarious footing.
The American electorate hates nothing more than a recession, the Trump admin knows that and the mid-terms are in 5 months.
People are saying Citizen Vigilante is graphic and a call for violence.
I honestly think it was more a warning for governments around the world.
Good men won’t keep standing by as their women and children are raped. As they watch the rapists go free. As they watch their homeland get destroyed. All why the government does nothing to stop it.
I don’t see it as a call for violence, I see it as a wake up call.
I have never in my life heard so many AI dev so disgusted in Dario for has games.
I am in a chat with over 600 open source folks and the sentiment is:
“Never use Anthropic”
See it is ultimately a good thing as we have made it a point to surpass the “held back” AI models.
And we will.
This fight is not over. Not even close.
As more Americans (not to mention Europeans and Japanese and Koreans and everyone in the developing world) have frontier AI ripped away from them, it will have massive second order effects that act as a counter veiling force to this insanity we are seeing.
Our American companies will start to get hit in the pocket book. Guess what, you can't finance 2 billion dollar training runs if you can't sell your product.
This will cascade down as the big labs burn even more money waiting and begging the government for release, losing more and more money.
This will start to hammer the stock market, which is death to politicians as the demand for chips and memory evaporate and the semiconductor boom starts to crash and hit people's retirement accounts.
Companies will push hard in another direction because they realize they can be shut off at any time.
Other countries will realize their sovereignty is at stake and push hard for alternatives.
Life finds a way.
It has a way of smashing all plans and conspiracies to smithereens.
It may get ugly before it gets better but this fight is not over yet.
Imagine getting into a Waymo/Cybercab and telling it where to go, only for it to argue with you about whether you should be allowed to get there.
That's where we are with frontier models that silently downgrade you mid-task. It begs the question, should companies limit or choose how much intelligence you can access?
Most of what we call scarce is just abundance we have not organized yet. The water sits in the ocean. The energy pours from the sky. The knowledge floats in the air around us. The hard part is the delivery!
@VraserX Oh you'll still have money. It will be taxed from producers at very high rates, because the motion of money will be more directly from government -- consumer -- producer-- government without much circulation between. But same as now, tax enough to take back and delete inflation
By this time next week, a massive number of former Anthropic users will be gone. Payback for Dairo’s fear theater of “regulate me”.
THE OPEN SOURCE COMMUNITY WILL REGULATE YOU.
@AndrewCurran_ No, you can't restrict access to open source without putting in place blocks that would crash the American economy. The American economy isn't built around a one party totalitarian system like China.
It’s becoming harder and harder to deny, that what we have been witnessing, is a hostile Communist takeover.
Communism infiltrated the US, under the guise of “Liberalism” and “Progress”.
The Dems have been Communist this whole time, but their masks have slipped off. They are merely revealing what they have been all along, wolves in sheep’s clothing. Their ideology is poison, designed to subvert and destroy the United States from within.
They are not interested in the rule of law or the prosperity of the American People. They are interested in global domination, and We are standing in their way.
@gridnpixel@DaveShapi He created the current government action by whinging and whining and fear mongering over AI. Not everything you create is what you wanted to create. I'm not saying he's the only one who created this situation, doomers in general are to blame.
CHAMATH: “The world was hurtling towards a monocultural blob … The WTO, the WEF were stripping apart what made us all different … We are in a period where the pendulum is firmly going back into the other direction.”
Some thoughts about how the US G has now asked both OpenAI and Anthropic to hold back models.
A bunch of people have asked what this means.
Are we going to be permanently frozen out or slowed down? Probably not, geostrategic competition with China guarantees that models will continue to get better, faster, and cheaper over time.
But, what we may see is a permanent bifurcation. Just like how Anthropic released Mythos (the weapons-grade version) and Fable (the peasant-grade version) we might see that become a standard practice. I hope it doesn't happen, even if the consumer-grade models improve over time.
Anyways, here's a 20 minute deep dive on some techno-history about the Cold War and GPS and how those previous events (plus some Military Industrial Complex lore) can shape our understanding of what might happen with AI being censured by the government.