GeoVane

Forecasting, geopolitics, and prediction markets. Podcast: @LongTelegramFM. Support us:

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

1️⃣ News in Numbers for Week 10/16/23
2️⃣ Diving into @RobinHanson's vision for Prediction Markets
3️⃣ The @NYTimes covers PMs and @ManifoldMarkets
& more

🆕 Predictions 004: https://t.co/FgWfzQv6FH

[Clay Graubard @ClayGraubard]

Some scattered thoughts and rapid predictions on the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War: https://t.co/kyJRarcjQY

🔮 Forecast: The Russo-Ukrainian War is set to end this year (~80% odds) and Ukraine will lose it (~95% odds).

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 Debating #multipolarity and the first geopolitics trivia face-off!

🎙️ Episode 004 of the @LongTelegramFM: https://t.co/PqMSOcPuy9

YouTube: https://t.co/GsOirLVCGN
Spotify: https://t.co/4XWYVItPPD
Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/RyPVzqLI3t

[The Long Telegram @LongTelegramFM]

🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates

🎙️: https://t.co/qt7UDugyld

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

Direct links—
Amazon Podcasts: https://t.co/1kdmkNvLYe
Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/2D39NazmE5
Google Podcasts: https://t.co/aDj7Tirk3P
Pocket Casts: https://t.co/1w7QyshTNS
Spotify: https://t.co/HP1FtAGyEo
YouTube ⤵️
https://t.co/GMGyqVH0uJ

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates

🎙️ The next @LongTelegramFM episode is out! Watch below or find links to the mp3, YouTube video, and all podcast platforms on our website: https://t.co/vqujhJuUhj

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

Timeline:
(00:00) No Multipolarity for Andrew + Intro
(00:25) US-Iran: Tensions and Potential for War?
(06:54) US-Iran: Potential Escalation short of War
(12:55) US-Iran: Relations and potential Conflict
(15:45) Military strategy and potential invasion of Iran
(17:10) US-Iran: Back to Tensions & Missile Defense Strategies
(23:11) Potential Russian involvement in US-Iran conflict
(27:45) Military strategy and missile technology
(29:04) US military capabilities and potential conflicts
(31:48) US military simulations and potential war with Iran
(32:55) Iran's escalation strategies and potential consequences
(34:45) Middle East conflicts and military preparedness
(39:37) Potential Israeli Gaza invasion and its challenges
(42:04) Gaza invasion feasibility and consequences
(45:44) Counterterrorism strategies and urban warfare
(47:21) Israeli military capabilities and readiness
(51:42) Targeting Hamas leaders in Qatar & effectiveness of killing terrorist leaders
(54:15) Erdogan sends Sweden NATO membership bill to Parliament
(56:36) Outro + Andrew rants about Multipolarity
(58:46) Blooper: Everyone hates Clay's sunglasses
(1:00:12) Blooper: Everyone (but Clay) still has terrible audio
(1:02:21) Blooper: Trump runs out of court (literally??)
(1:02:36) Blooper: Scrub Daddy Fail!

Note: This podcast was recorded on Thursday, October 26, 2023. #Geopolitics #Iran #Podcast

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕📺 Why did the US reject Bin Laden's surrender? by @D1Wheeler

Watch on YouTube:
https://t.co/iYB0TzeESh

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

Direct links—
Amazon Podcasts: https://t.co/YaBsEuI3Kj
Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/bfzmLwszqS
Google Podcasts: https://t.co/3ta9G7Gfuj
Pocket Casts: https://t.co/1w7QyshTNS
Spotify: https://t.co/a7IigcjYtg
YouTube ⤵️https://t.co/sITbtoaZ0A

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 A 50% chance of a multi-front war conditional on Israel invading Gaza?? + a whole lot more about the 🇮🇱🇵🇸 conflict.

🎙️ The @LongTelegramFM is finally here. Watch below or find links to the mp3, video, and more at our website: https://t.co/TYQc6Q9h7B

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

00:00 - Pre-pod chatting 😂
01:07 - Intro: Israel-Hamas conflict from a historical, political, and economic perspective
03:10 - Why did the 10/7 Hamas attack happen?
05:45 - Abraham Accords, Saudi-Israel normalization
8:25 - Palestinian polling, terrorism, and domestic politics
10:23 - What caused the Hamas attack?
16:46 - Iran's role in Israel-Hamas conflict
18:16 - Did Iranian funds unfrozen by the US play a role?
20:20 - Returning to causes for Hamas’ attack
25:00 - Can Israel and a free Palestine coexist peacefully?
39:12 - What’s the United States’ role in the conflict?
43:49 - Trivia Break: How densely populated is Gaza City?
46:47: Potential Israeli invasion of Gaza
48:50 - What’s the deal with Israeli settlements?
51:30 - Will a multi-front war break out in the region? Who will join?
1:01:05 - Are US Aircraft Carriers in danger? & US military capabilities
1:07:45 - Escalation in the Middle East conflict
1:11:55 - Israel’s domestic political situation & Iranian conflict
1:17:32 - Wrapping up the show + Avdiivka preview
1:19:26 - Post-pod bloopers 🙂

[The Long Telegram @LongTelegramFM]

🆕 001: Will Israel fight a Multi-Front War after invading Gaza? w/ @D1Wheeler and @ezra_brodey

🎙️: https://t.co/Una3aG9ZO1

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 What if @robinhanson is right and everyone else is wrong about the future of prediction markets?
➡️ https://t.co/iCxggBt05M

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

WATCH: @robinhanson pleads with the #forecasting community to "take the gold" in his recent talk at #Manifest2023. This speech is sure to become a classic!

https://t.co/YhxqhcbXQd

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

"Along with other layoffs, @Kalshi has not renewed contracts for certain political consultants and has not followed through on some of its plans to engage Washington-based think-tanks in an effort to enlist support for election markets."

https://t.co/HxyN0BUvpm

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

WATCH: #AI Debate | Destiny (@TheOmniLiberal) vs. Eliezer Yudkowsky (@ESYudkowsky) at #Manifest2023

[Andrew Eaddy @AndrewJEaddy]

I just launched a @ManifoldMarkets about whether trials of K5 Night Security Robot by @iKnightscope will result in a purchase order by the #NYPD. What do you think?

https://t.co/VjIG0UUMgp