GT

Gay Gooners FPL Champion 2019/20 & 2021/22

[GT @GiroudsTop]

Guess where I am.

[GT @GiroudsTop]

Loved Havertz at Leverkusen. Loved Havertz at Chelsea. Love Havertz at Arsenal.

[Arsenal @Arsenal]

🏆 Presenting Kai Havertz with his November Player of the Month award...

@KaiHavertz29 🤝 @Mertesacker

[chas newkey-burden @allthatchas]

My new book is published today! The Wit and Wisdom of David Attenborough!

[GT @GiroudsTop]

Kai Havertz ❤️

[GT @GiroudsTop]

So this happened.

[GT @GiroudsTop]

@fplreview @FPL_Chase @FPL_Jan That’s the thing, isn’t it. Optimisation has a tendency to reveal just how low the skill ceiling is for a high rank with 10M players.

[Phil Galfond @PhilGalfond]

The best thing poker teaches you is how to not be results-oriented, because that's crucial for good decision-making in all aspects of life.

The worst thing poker teaches you is how to not be results-oriented, because everyone else in the world is and it's very annoying.

⬇️

What does it mean to be results oriented?

Most things in life are probabilistic, which means that taking an action doesn't guarantee a specific outcome.

In other words, you don't often know what's going to happen next!

For example, if you have two routes to get to the grocery store that are similar in length, they won't always take the same time as each other.

Let’s say that you think taking the freeway is faster midday, but slower during rush hour.

You’ve taken those routes a hundred times and it seems like you're right. Almost always, the trips take what you expect them to.

One day, you get in your friend’s car to head to the store. It’s rush hour.

They begin to take the freeway, so you say, “Oh, the side roads are faster around now.”

They oblige, and you get stuck behind an accident on a small road. Your trip takes twice as long as it should.

Unlucky

“I knew the other way was better. I shouldn’t have listened to you,” your friend says.

Your friend is judging your decision by the result. This is being results-oriented.

98 times out of 100, you’d have been right. On average, you helped your friend make the best decision.

But now your friend blames you and won’t listen to you again.

Not only is your friend annoying - they are also going to keep driving the wrong way during rush hour from now on, wasting hours of their life.

Don’t Be The Friend

Assessing decisions properly doesn’t mean ignoring the outcomes.

The outcomes are evidence, but not proof.

You drove the two routes countless times. You observed the difference in traffic at different times of the day.

You based your theory on sound logic, then gathered evidence over time to grow more and more confident in that theory.

This is how decisions should be evaluated.

When faced with any decision, all we can do is make the best choice we can with the information we have at the time.

If it doesn’t go the way we hoped, it doesn’t mean we were wrong.

It’s just another bit of information to add to the decision-making process next time.

[GT @GiroudsTop]

https://t.co/tDrqeCiV8F

[GT @GiroudsTop]

Guess where I am.

[GT @GiroudsTop]

@thisheresjiraff Folk klager noe vanvittig.

Jeg husker Havertz fra Leverkusen. Han blir umiddelbart en av de beste fotballspillerne, i den bredeste betydningen av ordert, i klubben. Jeg gleder meg. Savner tida da en kunne veksle mellom Bergkamp, Kanu, Wiltord og gjengen.

[GT @GiroudsTop]

@azrielb There’s this other thing

[GT @GiroudsTop]

@johncooney1 I wonder what outside his footballing ability could possibly suggest this outcome. Maybe if one searches it’s possible to find suggestions of inappropriate behaviour or crimes. It’s a mystery.

[GT @GiroudsTop]

@ThreeFiveWho Havertz is such a Wenger player. I just don’t understand how an Arsenal supporter can miss it.

[GT @GiroudsTop]

@FIFA22_INFO First: FIFA International Soccer
Favourite: FIFA 14
Worst: FIFA Street 3

[TBN Sport @TBNSport]

Man who worships young, well-groomed and muscular Adonises can't bear thought of one of them being gay https://t.co/Sekul3QGJd