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We experience different long-term cycles that impact how active management performs and the decade of the 2020’s is proving to be very different from the post-GFC era of financial repression in the 2010’s. I’m currently digging into the numbers and will share some insights.
There has not been much durable progress made brining down inflation across the developed world.
Core inflation momentum to start '23 does not indicate a swift return to 2% anywhere in the developed world. Instead stabilizing at ~5%.
Central banks have a lot more work to do.
#cpfc I’m actually very happy with Roy’s return. Look it’s not ideal, but it’s pragmatic. Palace’s arc of progress over the last 12 years has been two steps forward, one step back. We’re in one of one step back moments…consolidate, then move on
@BobEUnlimited I agree. What actually happened is more form over substance as both essentially wiped out. I think this is AT-1 bond holders trying to cling to excuses that misread the risk. Even if equity taken to actual zero unlikely AT-1 would have been left with anything
Estimating the hit to the macro economy from the small banks problem requires understanding the importance of these banks are to the US credit system.
Over the last year small banks provided roughly 2% of GDP credit, even if it falls to zero, it's a modest impact. Thread.
I thought it was madness that palace fans were getting restless a couple of months ago, just look at what happens when small clubs like ours get greedy but I'm in no doubt now. We need a change or we're down. #BRICRY
In the beginning, your savings rate is all that matters.
As your net worth grows, your returns become all that matters.
Focus your attention accordingly.