Global Guessing

Follow @Base_Rate

[Global Guessing @globalguessing]

"Forecasting produces good information, forces accountability and rejects sophistry, sensationalism and biased thinking. It is a perfect check on traditional media outlets and a potential antidote to polarization."
https://t.co/GGcefco0ZJ

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

The new year can’t come soon enough…

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

"One of the most important societal benefits of prediction markets is that they can provide a check on all this punditry and the media’s tendency to sensationalize certain viewpoints." — @AndrewJEaddy via @desilvaphillips

[m/arc 🧭 @MarcHochstein]

If you're at #Consensus2022 anon come to the Big Ideas stage on the expo floor.

Starting in 15 mins we got @balajis talking about why "BTC > NYT," later @default_friend on pseudonymity, @thegoddisk on meme analysis & the @base_rate doods on prediction markets.

Gonna be epic.

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

Forecasting is a critical skill for humans to navigate an uncertain world. Prediction markets can help us get better at it, argue @ClayGraubard and @andrew_eaddy, who will present on the Big Ideas stage at #Consensus2022.

https://t.co/xs2PXvf6fM

[💰 Crowd Money @CrowdMoneyGG]

"Forecasting is also difficult, time consuming and underpaid. Adoption will require many approaches, and...prediction markets are one of the most hopeful by bringing…incentives and market efficiencies into the forecasting process.”
https://t.co/GiiRuA9lTR

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

The research from @PTetlock, Barbara Mellers, and many others has "shown that if we quantify, record, update, score and practice, we can make accurate predictions on complex questions. We can see at least part way through the 'fog of war.'"
https://t.co/xv0GQ36iTX

[Clay Graubard @ClayGraubard]

"Barring belief in preordination, we live in a probabilistic world. Forecasting is something we all do, whether or not we know it. It is a tool, it is a process, and critically, it is a skill to generate information."
https://t.co/cHJs085ENK

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🚨🆕 We've created a page highlighting job opportunities in the @Effect_Altruism, #predictionmarket, and #forecasting spaces!

Give it a look, and if you would like to have your job opening published here feel free to reach out!
https://t.co/gpjMaqq5MO

[Andrew Eaddy @AndrewJEaddy]

I wrote an article about #NFTs and their disruptive potential for the world of mergers and acquisitions. I shout out @vitadao, @bitski, and other exciting projects innovating in #web3. And it's accessible (albeit slightly long), so if you're curious: ⤵

https://t.co/OdH5DwMhMI

[Global Guessing @globalguessing]

We’re looking forward to speaking at @CoinDesk’s @consensus2022, the crypto & blockchain event of the year.

The festival will showcase and celebrate all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web 3 and their wide-reaching effects.

Join us in Austin, June 9-12: https://t.co/fEcC5WbvxA

[Global Guessing @globalguessing]

@CrowdMoneyGG @GlobalGuessing @ClayGraubard 🤯

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🎙 Last week we sat down with @MaximLott to talk about the state of the #Russia #Ukraine war, his #forecasts on the conflict and how they've changed, and his views on problematic media narratives surrounding the war.

Transcript available too.
https://t.co/pEPDK68JA8

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 The Constraints on Peace in the Russo-Ukrainian War

📈 25% (+5): Peace deal before the fall of Kyiv
📈 7% (+1): Russian government collapses by then

Next issue: The risks from escalation
https://t.co/omPPHq6cY0

[Global Guessing @globalguessing]

Introducing the @GlobalGuessing Russia-Ukraine Commodities Monitor (RUCM): Forecasts on Russia-Ukraine and their impacts on commodities.

Volume 1: Wheat and Aluminum
https://t.co/mWkdrrxamE

[Global Guessing @globalguessing]

👀 https://t.co/tv6pvan0Fa

[Global Guessing @globalguessing]

You Can't Brush Aside the Consequences of Great Power Conflict @GlobalGuessing
https://t.co/lmx7DBJhFW

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

We've revamped our Forecasting Resources page following Russia's invasion of Ukraine:
—Which cities will Russian troops enter?
—Will Zelensky stay in power?
—Will Russia invade elsewhere?
—War Death Questions
—Sanctions Questions
—Russia-NATO Questions
https://t.co/tfNBv97anH

[💰 Crowd Money @CrowdMoneyGG]

Not the issue you were looking for, but useful information for the Crowd.
https://t.co/aIwfKbH1F3

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

We've compiled a list of useful #forecasting resources on the #RussiaUkraineCrisis, featuring:

👥 Crowd forecasts on a variety of questions;
🔮 #Superforecaster predictions on invasion;
📑 High-signal Twitter lists for information.
https://t.co/tfNBv97anH