Golden Belt Investments

Community Banks

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@Aureliusltd28 @PetaZetazz @ljp0101 On a relative/pair approach, FNB all day every day

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@colarion Not pushing back, follow-up tweet mentioned the deposit franchises need to prove its worth/stability. Insinuating that liquidity stability, if proven out, should be valued at a premium by market

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

With all the focus on bank portfolios now, wonder if/when valuations banks with 40% plus bond allocations start to get valued at 1x tangible book. Some large premiums still reflected in some names.

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

I’ll just drop this here. Liquidity management and true value of deposit franchises will be the story here. List is $5B+ total assets and 40%+ investment securities as % of assets.

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

Stock perf was a snoozer for most of 2022, but woke up in Q4 (high quality fund built position in Q4). 50% return since tweet.

Bank ROA printing 1.9% from ~1% run rate. Significant boost to NIM. Hiccup with Q2 bond buys. Cash retains option value for mgmt to earn keep from here

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

<tap tap> OVLY holds 40% of balance sheet in *cash* heading into this FOMC hiking cycle. Trades at 1.1x TBV and ~11x annualized Q4 EPS (trough EPS print). Execution risk present, but what a setup for management to prove its mettle.

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

<tap tap> OVLY holds 40% of balance sheet in *cash* heading into this FOMC hiking cycle. Trades at 1.1x TBV and ~11x annualized Q4 EPS (trough EPS print). Execution risk present, but what a setup for management to prove its mettle.

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

If you can play with the size/liquidity, SBNC is really interesting here with the FCNCA/B stake

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

The thing is, with fat pitches, is you need to swing. A bank with family control (however strong it is), too much capital, huge discount to TBV, no growth to tap, just sat out an entire year where they could have driven material shareholder value. Woof. @colarion

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@hootrm3 @TimyanBankAlert If either of you know Abbott, when he’s done with FUNC could you request he put in a phone call to FMBL’s 80 year old CFO to make sure he’s still alive. If he is, a quick PowerPoint on share repurchase at < TBV, excess capital, and family/voting control is in order...

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@TimyanBankAlert Stand by the post and the long recommendation, but hard to take credit on this move! Wild year.

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@shaskell12 Fun chart on this one so far this year

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

Seems like some single-names really catching a tailwind from the index/beta rally.

One ~$4B asset name out here trading 22x EPS and 150% TBV when it’s clean quarter run-rate is 0.70% ROA, 7.5% ROE, 3% NIM. Still carrying 1.6% NPLs and LLR is 85% of NPLs. And deposits are blah.

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@warnockiv Whole bank acquisitions in 2016, 2017, and 2018 if I’m remembering right

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

This Fulton FULT sub-debt deal pricing is just WOW impressive

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@DavidSchawel @Canes @MapleLeafs @LJKawa This is amazing.

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@oddballstocks @Shadow_Value @TimyanBankAlert BKUT has been and will almost certainly be a sunk opportunity cost situation for the next decade. It’s easier to just pretend it doesn’t exist.

https://t.co/CwUh7qsgcH

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@TimyanBankAlert @MidwestHedgie Lol, why waste energy chasing loan originations when you can get paid to run a basic levered carry fixed income strategy?

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@ChrisPavese Jon Corzine: “and I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren’t for you meddling regulators and your rules against commingling customer funds!”

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

@TimyanBankAlert https://t.co/LMA8SPBji4

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

Here’s the long pitch: you should have a “call option basket” of banks where Ken Lehman has a material/majority position

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

Still brings a smile

https://t.co/6gngdNGqaR

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

I love deal slides. It’s where the magic happens.

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

I’d argue market still doesn’t like the deal. Combined market cap is ~$5.8B

[Golden Belt Investments @GoldenBeltInv]

Some earnings on the tape. EFSI (great, undervauled), RRBI (solid, fairly valued), FNRN (solid, undervalued and my personal white whale), and HMNF (absolute woof of a quarter).