Good Stuff

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

Day 4 of Iran vs. U.S./Israel war (focus on Iranian strategic narrative):

🔹The IRGC’s ground forces appear to be entering the conflict more visibly. Iranian reports indicate drone strikes against Kurdish militant positions in northern Iraq and attacks against U.S. targets in Kuwait, suggesting a widening role for the force.

🔹This shift reflects growing Iranian concern that the U.S. may support insurgent groups operating inside Iran, particularly Kurdish and Baloch armed factions along the country’s borders.

🔹Iran has downed an Israeli Elbit Hermes 900 drone largely intact (photo verified). Iranian sources are already discussing possible reverse engineering, something Tehran has attempted with captured systems in the past.

🔹Both sides are signaling confidence in wartime production capacity. Iranian officials claim missile production is keeping pace with launches, while Donald Trump has said U.S. interceptor missile production is also accelerating.

🔹Iran’s maritime pressure campaign continues. An IRGC Navy official stated that ten ships have been targeted so far in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing Tehran’s effort to disrupt shipping and raise global energy costs.

🔹The Islamic Resistance of Iraq announced 27 operations against U.S. positions across the region in a single day, marking a sharp escalation in proxy activity.

🔹There have been attacks on U.S. diplomatic and intelligence facilities in Gulf states, including incidents in Dubai and Saudi Arabia.

🔹The United States is considering escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian analysts argue this could paradoxically increase the vulnerability of U.S. naval assets by bringing them closer to Iranian missile ranges.

🔹Iran appears to be concentrating attacks on U.S. radar and surveillance infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Reports indicate a second THAAD radar in the UAE was targeted by Iranian missiles, suggesting a strategy aimed at degrading early warning capabilities.

🔹At the same time, Iran has reportedly prioritized targeting Israeli reconnaissance drones such as the Hermes 900, which are central to locating Iranian missile launchers.

🔹Some analysts suggest this may explain the recent decline in large-scale Iranian missile barrages: Tehran could be attempting to first degrade Israel’s ISR capabilities before resuming heavier missile operations.

🔹Footage showing Israeli F-16 aircraft operating over Tehran suggests that Israeli and U.S. forces may have achieved significant freedom of maneuver in Iranian airspace after suppressing parts of Iran’s air defense network.

🔹The division of labor between the United States and Israel is becoming clearer. Israeli strikes appear concentrated in Tehran and western Iran, while U.S. operations increasingly target drone bases and military infrastructure in southern Iran.

🔹Israeli strikes also continue to focus on Iran’s government institutions. Police headquarters, intelligence facilities, and IRGC bases in Tehran have been targeted, reinforcing the apparent strategy of weakening the Islamic Republic’s internal security capacity.

🔹At the same time, strikes have targeted western Iranian provinces, raising Iranian fears that insurgent groups could attempt to enter the country from Iraqi Kurdistan.

🔹Iran has responded by striking Kurdish militant positions in Iraq and increasing IRGC deployments along its western borders.

🔹Hezbollah has continued limited operations despite pressure from the Lebanese government, including a suicide drone attack against the Ramat David airbase and rocket fire toward Israeli military targets.

🔹Meanwhile, the Houthis have threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and resume attacks against Saudi Arabia if Riyadh joins the war directly.

🔹Energy infrastructure has increasingly become a central battlefield. Iranian drone strikes hit key gas facilities linked to QatarEnergy, forcing a temporary shutdown of LNG operations in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed.

🔹A separate attack targeted the oil export hub at Fujairah in the UAE, a critical route that allows Gulf oil shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

🔹These strikes suggest a broader Iranian strategy aimed at sustaining pressure on global energy markets even if a full maritime blockade proves difficult to maintain.

🔹Oil markets are already reacting. Iraq has halted Kurdish oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline and warned that production cuts may follow if Hormuz disruptions continue.

🔹Inside Iran, political developments are accelerating. The Assembly of Experts is reportedly close to selecting a new Supreme Leader following the killing of Ali Khamenei.

🔹The interim leadership council convened again despite the risk of further decapitation strikes, signaling an attempt to project continuity and control.

🔹Concerns are also growing about potential escalation around nuclear facilities. The Natanz nuclear site has reportedly been struck again, while explosions near the Russian-operated Bushehr nuclear power plant have raised fears of a potential nuclear accident.

🔹The tempo of Iranian missile strikes against Israel appears to have decreased in the past day. It remains unclear whether this reflects successful targeting of missile launchers or deliberate conservation of missile stockpiles.

🔹Recent U.S. military deployments are also attracting attention in Iranian commentary. Open-source reporting indicates that Washington has sent additional aerial refueling aircraft to the CENTCOM region and redeployed fighter jets from Europe to the Middle East.

🔹Some Iranian analysts interpret these moves as a sign that the conflict may not be unfolding as Washington initially anticipated, suggesting that the existing U.S. force posture may have been insufficient for the scale and duration of the confrontation.

🔹There are also reports that the United States may be considering redeploying THAAD and Patriot air defense systems from other regions, including East Asia, to reinforce missile defenses in the Middle East amid sustained Iranian missile attacks.

🔹These developments are framed in Iranian media as evidence that interceptor missile consumption may be occurring faster than expected, forcing Washington to draw on additional regional and global resources.

🔹Overall, developments on Day 4 largely reinforce the patterns observed over the past two days: expanding proxy involvement, continued attacks on energy infrastructure, sustained air operations inside Iran, and a widening regional spillover of the conflict.

[Ryan Petersen @typesfast]

Thousands, and then millions, of American small businesses, including many iconic brands, will go bankrupt this year if the tariff policies on China don’t change.

🧵

[Sumit Roy @sumitroy2]

The conspiracy theory that Trump is crashing the economy to bring down interest rates to refinance the national debt is complete nonsense!

The U.S. is currently paying an average interest rate of about 3.3% on its $36 trillion national debt. That’s already lower than where market rates are today (the 10-year Treasury is yielding around 4% and the 30-year is closer to 4.4%).

So for this plan to even begin to make sense, interest rates would need to plunge well below current levels, down to 2% or 3%.

And even if that happened, it wouldn’t be some game-changing win. Yes, over time, some of the debt matures and gets rolled over.

Refinancing that portion at lower rates (3% instead of 5%) could help around the edges.

But you can’t just call up America’s creditors and refinance the entire $36 trillion like it’s a mortgage.

That’s not how any of this works. Most of the national debt is in short-term Treasury bills and notes that are constantly rolling over.

Even if rates fall, you’d still be refinancing gradually, over time, as debt matures, not in one big bang.

And you definitely can’t shift all that short-term debt into 30-year bonds. The demand just isn’t there.

Long-term Treasuries (those maturing in 20 to 30 years) make up only about 17% of the total market. Try cramming trillions into that, and you’d blow up the bond market.

Right now, Treasury bills (which mature in less than a year) make up about 22% of U.S. debt. Treasury notes (2–10 year maturities) make up around 51%.

Each part of the bond market has its own supply and demand dynamics. Bills are basically cash-like instruments; they don’t have interest rate risk and their prices barely move. That’s a big reason there’s always strong demand for them.

You can’t simply shift a huge chunk of short-term debt into long-term bonds.

Those carry a lot of interest rate risk, and the pool of buyers is different (mostly pension funds and insurance companies).

If the Treasury tried to flood the market with long-term bonds, demand might not keep up, which would actually push long-term rates even higher.

We’re already seeing some of that. Despite rising recession fears, 30-year bond yields haven’t dropped much, suggesting limited demand at those durations.

Now, at the margins, the Treasury can and does tweak the debt mix…maybe shifting a little from bills to notes, or notes to bonds.

But it’s a balancing act, not something you can radically change overnight.

[Mike Beckham @mikebeckhamsm]

Last night I mowed my lawn and thought about tariffs.

Over the last week I've talked to countless CEO's and industry leaders. I've had conversations with people in DC and in China. Just like everyone else, I don't know what the future holds. But we are clearly in a new era.

The new tariffs create a lot of costs that will need to come from somewhere. For my company, we expect to pay almost $40,000,000 in new tariffs this year.

Interestingly, we have invested millions in domestic manufactuing over the last few years. For many nuanced reasons we still don't have the ability to produce a large percentage of our products in the US. I know this to be true for many companies. It is not a lack of willingness to make things in the US. It is a lack of financial viability.

There are only three options for companies to manage these new tariff costs:

-Raise Prices
-Cut Expenses
-Accept Lower Profits

In every business there are essential costs and costs that make life easier. There are business activities that the company needs to survive and initiatives that contribute at a nominal level. There are softwares that you cannot live without, but there are many more that make the work easier and less monotonous.

I don't know the road ahead, but I know it is going to be bumpy. CEO's are going into wartime mode. They are going to be looking to slash operating expenses. They aren't going to pay others to do something they can do themselves. They are going to be spending money on essentials.

It is going to be a tough few weeks for many service providers. There will be a lot of churn and some massive price reductions.

And profits are going to be hard to come by over the next year. Recent studies have shown that 50% of the discretionary spending in this country comes from the top 10%. That top 10% owns equity in private and public companies. Whatever your opinions about income distribution in America, that group currently drives the discrectionary economy. That top 10% is going to spend significantly less in the months ahead. We are likley headed for a recession.

To survive and thrive in the months ahead you are going to need to drive results. CEO's are going to have to make hard decisions to protect their company from going under.

My advice to every person reading this who is not a CEO: Be Proactive! Seek feedback about how you can be producing the value your employeer needs. Don't assume that "no news is good news". Have a bias to action in looking for ways to contribute, take on more, and find effeciency.

This period is going to be hard, but there will be some great things that come from it. I have been an entreprenuer for 16 years. I would estimate that 80-90% of the best ideas I have seen implemented were the result of challenging business climate. Pressure helps us to focus and make the needed tough decisions. Lack of resources spurs creativity and new approaches. During easy times there is a build up of things that need to change, but because there is no pressure to take action nothing happens. When the going gets rough it leads to decisons that were long overdue.

For most of the last 10 years I have paid someone to mow my lawn. But recently I decided to start doing it myself again. As I was mowing, I kept coming back to one thought: We are entering the "mow your own lawn" era for businesses.

[Wang Xiao @XiaoWan74087048]

看到好多人为川普辩护，潜意识里似乎把美国政府赤字的原因归咎于贸易逆差，这简直蠢到没边了。这七十多年，本质上美国就是个卖绿色纸片的，还独家经营。这个特许证是美国全力打赢二战换来的，你想卖比白粉还暴利十倍的绿色纸片，可不得贸易赤字么，否则你打算怎么把你的绿色纸片卖出去？这是美国的商业模式。捍卫这个特许经营权的护城河是美国的全球军事存在，世界警察身份，以及头顶上那个光环：自由灯塔，民主卫士，价值观捍卫者。现在，傻逼美国佬们就这么把自家金饭碗给砸了，要去地里刨食，真是好日子过多了找苦吃，活久见。至于联邦政府赤字和MAGA问题，政府赤字就一个原因，政府乱花钱。MAGA问题的原因是美国国内的各阶级财富分配机制失衡了。这俩和美国贸易赤字这个商业模式没半毛钱关系。这代美国佬能蠢成这样，只能说活该了。

[everythingism @_everythingism]

@EWErickson Keep in mind that the numbers the Trump admin posted are not the actual tariff rates of other countries. So it's a tax increase being decided in a really stupid and random way by a bunch of morons.

https://t.co/rH2A9ZrrQ0

[Desmond Shum @DesmondShum]

Peak China v plateau China. That’s an interesting point for discussion. But, I disagree with that assertion of plateau China. Arguments can be made about the pace of decline, be it economic or geopolitical. But plateauing “reach a state of little or no change after a period of activity or progress” (Oxford Language) is a grossly misleading label

“It’s the economy, stupid”. What differentiates China v Soviet Union is its economic strength. Soviets had more geopolitical clout and military might in comparison. Economic strength is the basis of Chinese power. When that goes waning, everything else goes down with it.

As I’ve said many times before, China’s problem today is its economic model has RUN ITS FULL COURSE. The economic model that has served China over the past decades is NO LONGER FUNCTIONAL. This goes beyond the headlined bankrupt real estate sector.
All three pillars, export/investment/consumption, of China growth is in trouble
a. export led growth (36% of GDP in 2006 declined to 18.8% in 2023). China’s total share of global trade has been in decline since it peaked in 2021.
b. Investment led growth - “Can China really account for 38 percent of global investment while its economy comprises just 21 percent of global GDP and 15 percent of global consumption ? (Michael Pettit). Both infrastructure and real estate investment have been in sharp decline over the past couple of years. I don’t think it’s in a position of revival.
c. Consumption: real estate holding accounts for 80% of household wealth in China. With that in sharp decline, there’s little hope that consumption can be the foundation of growth going forward.

To me, plateau China is a misleading concept

[Ignatius Lee @22HomoPoliticus]

已故泰王拉玛九世在1946年新登基时作爵士乐歌曲《日落时分》（ยามเย็น），旋律曲折往复，跌宕起伏，既浪漫又凄美，略带忧伤却不乏豁达，是一首温柔而且深情的抒情曲。

在那个年代，泰国的西化程度已经非常高了。

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

1/6
Good Soumaya Keynes piece on the rarity of true economic convergence between backward and advanced economies. There is a widespread assumption that economic backwardness must lead to faster growth as capital and labor inputs are forced up.

https://t.co/6JLvzeZ2cc via @ft

[Kevin Yam 任建峰 @kevinkfyam]

The changes to enforcing #China court orders in #HongKong are either being derided as another encroachment from China or lauded as cemented HK’s place as a dispute resolution centre. Between these loaded viewpoints, I proffer two implications of these changes for HK. (1/10)

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

1/14
This very good article explains quite well the problems the Chinese economy currently faces, but it should stress more that the model didn't "break down" recently, when growth rates started to slow sharply.

It broke down at least 10-15 years ago.

https://t.co/i9O7sspuVX

[Pavel Slunkin @PavelSlunkin]

Many rumors surrounding the sudden disappearance of the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Of course, I don't know where he is or what is happening to him.
Instead I will share my impressions of our meeting and working together in 2015.

[bob davis @bobdavis187]

Biden Asia chief Kurt Campbell in an interview with me.
"We’ve entered a new period where results have more to do with clear lines of communication and laying out specific areas of anxiety and concern. The act of greater clarity is an important signal."
https://t.co/FvRQj3xpkq

[李承鹏（大眼哥） @dayangelcp]

标：嘘，吃饭的时候不要说话！

文/李承鹏

前两天，山西介休一个贫困家庭的男孩被逼着吃屎，边吃边干呕，霸凌者在旁边喊“他想吐出来”“咽下去”，不知受了什么威胁，小男孩求饶“不不不，不用，我吃”，被迫吞下去……视频广为流传，小男孩精神也不正常了。警方介入，本着和谐社会、矛盾双方应相向而行的态度，以4.5万元达成和解。

吃屎怎么能和解呢？叔可忍屎不可忍，有新闻媒体就义愤填膺要求警方解释和解过程……我许久未见媒体站出来让警方做出解释这么幼稚的行为了。你以为还是大清哪，杨乃武与小白菜遭遇冤情，《申报》拍案而起：“兹本馆访得底稿，因再录供众览，以表奇冤”。

估计警方也一脸懵逼，在一个连真正意义的新闻都没有的地方，你他妈要啥自行车？

所以为天下穷孩子择业的张雪峰老师说的很对：别报新闻系。

成千上万孩子吃了三聚氰胺、郭利为女儿上访维权被判五年、最终妻离子散这种人间悲剧都风轻云淡被人忘掉，吃屎这么一件小事还好意思摆上台面？谁没吃过屎呢，你不吃屎能长这么大？忍一忍就过去了，实在忍不下去，就再加一砣屎。

勾践说：大王，您的屎苦中带酸，应该是谷物吃得太多，不妨事，过两天就好。

夫差看着勾践叭叽着嘴还认真吮着指上残余的屎，很开心。他知道对方怂了。

勾践也很开心，他知道对方大意了。待重返越国，卧薪尝胆，勾践终于一雪前耻大败吴国，逼夫差自尽，成为春秋最后一个霸主，并翻脸不认人杀掉功臣文种。

子曰：吃得屎中屎，方为人上人。

中华凡百十代人，就这样津津有味叭叽着嘴在把勾践当励志人物的理念下熏陶成长着……“卧薪尝胆”，这么脏的词，被一代又一代的青年当成座佑铭，好比每个孩子课桌上供着一个屎盆子。所以，上下三千六百多年的中国教育史就是一场角逐吃屎的比赛史。不要输在起跑线，不要输在吃屎的赛道。

这两天，以指导天下穷孩子填报八股专业为己任的张雪峰老师“被病倒”，这让急待张老师制订人生赛道战术的家长们很焦急，愤愤不平。张老师对孩子们（其实是对家长们）激情四射、设身处地、入脑入心的的演讲，让那些想让孩子们少走弯路甚至弯道超车（为什么又是弯道超车）改变命运的家长们有一种佛家当头棒喝、茅塞顿开、拨开迷雾见太阳的感觉。张老师是六祖慧能，是时代良心，张老师帮普通人说话得罪了高层利益集团，我见过最感人的说法是——“张雪峰当了一回谭嗣同”。

消费确实降级了。

连鸡汤导师都成了谭嗣同。

我对张老师没啥恶感甚至无感，但你是不是不知道谭嗣同他爹是湖北巡抚兼署湖广总督，妥妥官二代的谭嗣同，并不教雕丝们如何巧妙通过科举弯道超车进入大清体制，改写个人命运，而是在菜市口流血断头也要破除大清该死的体制。这才叫良心。

说实话，张雪峰老师“不要去报……专业”“而要去报……专业”“这个专业才会给你带来稳定收入”“那个专业才少走弯路少受欺负”，属于那种听上去不明觉厉，实际上没太多成功例子支撑的鸡汤导师，虽然比于丹款鸡汤显得更接地气，究其实质还是机场成功学的一个变种。当年有多少人听机场成功学课程，现在就有多少人听张老师人生赛道弯道超车。这个国家，老年人爱吃保健品，年轻人爱听成功学。人们对医疗体系不信任，产生了老年保健品，对教育体系的不信任，产生了张老师。

人生赛道，张老师只是换一种方式让孩子们吃屎……屎是一点不少吃的，最多用苦胆压一下腥味。

张老师最煽情的就是动员孩子考公，先不说公务员考题“下面四种珍珠哪一种最珍贵”“普洱茶为什么叫普洱茶”“铁锅用什么铁制成”“企鹅能否活在赤道”多么无聊雷人，如果一个社会良心帮孩子改变命运的终极杀招是考公是进入体制，逻辑得多混乱，这其实就是教孩子如何尽量自己少吃屎后，再让别人吃屎。

我看到一些文章写得很好，比如张雪峰不是教孩子们如何改变社会，而是屈从社会，还有一篇没查到作者的文章引用了亚当.斯密说的：中国人不缺乏智慧，但那些智慧都是为了满足生存的，是动物性的，跟精神层次的东西无关。

这些老师还是不了解当下某些国人（为了玻璃心们，特别注明是某些），他们并不需要精神层面，他们认为精神病才去追求精神层面，只要有钱赚，再脏，只要能让别人更脏，就能心理补偿甚至还从吃屎中寻出了美感。

我的意思是相当厚道的：逼仄时代，不是不可以屈从，不可以吃屎，但你得知道这是权宜之计，是哈着腰在吃屎。但如果你成天叭叽嘴吃屎还逢人便拉过来点赞：你看，老子有没有吃出米其林三星的风范……这就太讨厌了。

其实精致投机主义者也没啥问题，问题在于，当内卷严重到神州大地奔驰着八十万本科以上学历的外卖员，学核物理的去街道当了城管……你真以为自己有能力精致投机地穿着鲨鱼皮一路游过粪坑成为成功上岸的那一个？吹牛逼呢！无论张老师怎么帮你精心设计人生，工商税务央企那些好岗位被官二代富二代红三代占得牢牢的，哪轮得上你个雕丝，没听说“现在好的职位，就像艾滋病一样，只能通过母婴、血液、性交传播了”。所以，无论你考上985、211还是考公成功，安守你的世袭——大明朝军户这苦差事是世袭，我朝“群众”这苦逼角色也是世袭，雕丝连逆袭至康师傅泡面，不也瞬间灰飞烟灭了。

常看到一些小镇做题家感恩高考改变了个人命运，也许改变了些许生活质量……但会做题的永远战胜不了会投胎的，更多的小镇做题家是，过去在村里被村长欺负，现在换到城里被主管欺负，换成上街骑个电动车被城管欺负，换成疫情来了被楼长欺负。

你从未改变命运，你只是改变了屎的烹饪方式。

我问一个公务员爸爸，“为什么要让孩子考公务员”，答“总比端盘子当服务员好吧”。我问“处长夹菜你不敢转桌子还赶紧帮他调整好菜口，跟端盘子的服务员有什么区别”，答“至少我是坐着的”。我“处长举杯你赶紧站起来干了，跟夜场陪酒的有什么区别”，答“至少我是有科级待遇的”。我“一个有科级待遇的端盘子兼夜场陪酒的服务员？领导让你加班你敢说去你妈的老子不干了？”，答“去尼玛的，少这么偏激”。

看，当了公务员只是拥有了向我说“去尼玛的”权利。

张老师说的很好，“自由就是拥有说不的权利”。但鼓吹考公的张老师走到了自己的对立面。

不说张老师，他是揣着明白装糊涂。黑格尔说“中国没有历史，中国史不过是君王覆灭、王朝更迭的重复史”。中国也没有教育史，中国只有各种八股、考公的循环史。黑格尔说这句话时正是道光皇帝时期，皇帝正忙着亲自出冷僻考题。道光五年，他出的考题是——“或乞醯焉”。理由很简单，因为正是夏历乙酉年，“或乞醯焉”隐含“乙酉”二字，你看，这他妈是考题还是变态拆字游戏。然而，至今考题并没有变。例子自己举。

隋唐开科，李世民站在高高的城墙上看着考生们徐徐进入，抚掌大悦：“天下英雄尽入彀中”。“彀”的意思就是圈套、牢笼……再后来就是范进……再后来，就是天门山不堪重负跳下去的四名青年，是广州不堪重负就烧炭自杀的三名青年，是天津七个学生不堪重负“七连跳”。他们生前，没少被这个世界强迫吃屎。

记住，很多人以为自己吃屎会吃成越王勾践，其实你怎么吃屎都只是被霸凌的介休小男孩。

介休小男孩精神出了问题。歌手李玟也因为长期抑郁症离开人间。刚看到崔永元在朋友圈诉说前段时间他几次想飞上天堂，我告诉他“没事，这里是最大的精神病院，我们都是病友”。无论年少懵懂，才华横溢，还是顽强死杠，大家都想通过个人奋斗，却改变不了吃屎，吃着吃着屎，就都成了精神病。

中科院院士陆林说：疫情三年，新增7000万抑郁症，9000万焦虑症，数亿人出现失眠障碍，这种影响将持续至少20年。

我查了一下，这个人数远远超过中国共产党员最新统计的人数，9804.1万。为此我忧心忡忡，今后党员同志的工作负担更重了，就又要公务员扩编了，公务员增多，交的税也就更多了，由此抑郁症患者必然更多了。当然，最后蔓延到14亿人都患上抑郁症的话，也就无所谓个人命运，精神病院的命运就是你个人的命运，慢慢地，终于修成了命运共同体。

我身边总有一些朋友常摆着一张苦瓜脸说：道理我们也懂，但我们没能力改变社会，就改变自己的命运吧。

其实并不需要每个人都去改变社会，个人奋斗改变命运也挺高尚的，但前提得在一个正常社会，比如马斯克、扎克伯格……但如果你在朝鲜还想通过个人奋斗改变命运？在这个热爱足球的国家，踢球倒是可以改变个人命运的，只是这个梗说得很清楚了：踢得好可以见到金正恩，踢不好就可以去见金日成。

还有就是，上面那篇文章提到“动上层的利益如动了他的性命，动底层人的观念，如动他的祖坟”。不不不，这位作者老师还是太善良了，我并不认为有些国人是观念问题，他们清楚地知道自己要什么，怎么得到，怎么把屎塞到对手嘴里去。他们不是侥幸心理，他们就是鸡贼。

所以，改变观念的从来都不是观念，改变观念的只有铁拳。

那些大白都上天台讨薪了。那些事业编举牌讨薪的会越来越多。120万地方城投债重压下，江浙的公务员都降薪了……等吧，更多更狠的铁拳落下来。

何况还有很多善良正直的人，他们是真正爱自己的孩子，他们付出很多努力带孩子离开粪坑，这让人敬佩。实在如果没条件，就让孩子在国内学一门手艺，千万别考公，千万别让孩子背行测，申论。至少，少一个公务员，雕丝们少交一份税，少交税，就少得抑郁症。

如果还不行，大家就带着孩子在粪坑里继续修炼吧，讲个笑话：

苍蝇妈妈生下小苍蝇后，就天天在厕所里吃粪便。

有一天，苍蝇妈妈终于带着小苍蝇飞到花园去吃一砣牛粪。小苍蝇第一次看到四周鲜花盛开，芬芳扑鼻，无数的蜜蜂们嘤嘤地采着蜜，感慨万分，好奇地问：妈妈，它们在干嘛。

妈妈说：它们在吃饭。

小苍蝇问：世界这么美好，可是为什么我们要吃屎呢。

苍蝇妈妈：嘘，小孩子要懂礼貌，吃饭的时候不要说话！

文/李承鹏（大眼哥）

[Richard N. Haass @RichardHaass]

Thank you @iandenisjohnson. You are truly a gentleman & a scholar. Looking forward to your book on Chinese historians who challenge the Party line. Proud of what we changed & refused to change at @CFR_org over the past 20 years, & hoping the sandwiches remain thick & kale scarce.

[佛瑞德里希4th😷 @Friedrich4th]

在台海，美国想“吓阻”习近平，恐怕很难。
习近平是一个纨绔，是个红二代。他习惯的“治国理政”方式，是不断向下属提要求，逼着下属想方设法让他满意。
他心目中的“英明施政”，是提他自认为合理的要求。他心目中的“勤政爱民”，是勤于发号施令。
在经济领域，他对危机作出的反应，是对主管经济的官员提要求，督促官员们“不惜一切代价”把经济搞好。但他既不会给出具体方案，也不会为下属们提供解决问题所需的资源。
习近平本质上是个懦弱的人，他虽然很爱站在台前享受荣光，却很怕承担责任。他也是个缺乏临机应变之才的人，遇到突发事态，他会示意下属献计献策，然后陷入“长考”直到延误时机。
在军事领域，他的行事风格并不会改变。
武统台湾，既是习近平从小在文革中受洗脑教育、红色宣传后养成的执念，也是他多年来在自己的毛左红二代小圈子里接收到的“政治正确”。
在毛左红二代的想象中，一旦开打，中共军队就能轻松碾平台湾，因此，除了毛当年是顾忌美苏争霸格局和缺了核武底气外，邓、江、胡不敢轻言武统，全是因为他们的意志不够坚定，胆量不够大。
而对一生不接地气，缺乏现实感，对实现目标的客观困难没有清醒认识的纨绔红二代来说，他们想象中，打赢战争甩需要的意志坚定、胆量大，并不是面对强敌时意志坚定、胆量大。
只要在对下属们提要求时，意志坚定、胆量大就行了。
顺便说一下，过于迷信意志的作用，轻视能力的局限，是巨婴的通病。
习近平这样的大国决策者，地球上确实是“独一份”，也难怪全世界各国各地的分析者都很难捕捉到他的思维脉络。
若用分析理性决策者的方法分析习近平，并推导习近平领导下的中共政策走向，你是一定会失准的。
你必须抓住习近平的个人性格特质、他的纨绔风格，和他培养起来的亲信部属的“帮闲作风”，才能理清影响中共决策的全部心理因素。
综合习近平在上台后的重大决策中的表现，你可以看到，他个人实际上有两种决策模式。
第一种，是典型的纨绔决策模式，自己先不拿主意，让下边的人出谋划策，自己择优取用。或干脆自己只暗示意图，等下属把事情办好了，自己再出来领功。2020年初武汉封城，习近平在谭德赛面前“亲自领功”，其实正证明封城时的决策模式是第一种。
第二种，才是习近平真的“亲自指挥、亲自部署”。这种模式，往往是在下属无权置喙的特别重大议题上，或是在习近平的长考耗时太久，已经拖过了能妥善解决问题的时机后，才突然开启。2022年底突然解封和中俄友谊从无上限到“坑爹”就属于此类。
目前，习近平仍处于模式一状态。
他持续向军队施压，向下属施压，要求一直告诉他军队忠心耿耿战力强悍的下属，做好战争准备，让他在开打时有底气，有信心。
共军近期多次采取碰瓷战术，从空军碰到海军，显示军队内部正承受着巨大政治压力。碰瓷，在美军耐性的边缘试探，是军方高层试图以个人风险最低的方式向习近平作出“交代”。
这不是军事行动，是政治作秀，是中共军队“文工团化”，军事行动“面子工程化”的证据。
从清零抗疫到台海战备，从战狼外交到地摊经济，中共官员这种以轻浮态度对严肃议题，为搏领导开心，不顾国计民生，专注作秀的做法，正是与领导人的纨绔风格相对应的“帮闲作风”。
不过，从军队认为只要“作秀”就能对习近平有所交代，我们可以看出，习近平对台海各方目前的实力和动向并无切实了解。习近平仍然认为，只要军队服从指挥，只要他本人意志坚定（也就是在向不想真打的中共军队将领发号施令时意志坚定态度坚决），解放军的战争能力不成问题。
他关注的仍是主观困难，担忧的是军队不够忠诚，不够服从。
所以军队需要展示忠诚，展示服从。
但并不需要展示真正的作战能力。

我预计台海战争开打，会在习近平再次从模式一切换到模式二的时候发生。

习近平的两种决策模式和无人知晓的模式切换，令他在模式一状态，能借助帮闲们的智慧，和凭着帮闲们“只想作秀不想闹大”的克制心态，和其他纨绔二代官员一样，维持着能力正常的形象，将其决策的破坏性保持在较低水准。
但每逢他切换到模式二，真的亲自指挥起来，他现实感的缺失、能力的短板，就会在重大决策中展现无遗。
而诱使他切换的因素，既有可能是“不得不发”，也有可能是“信心十足”。
前者如白纸革命后的突然解封。
后者如2019年中美贸易战最后关头的掀桌。

[George Magnus @georgemagnus1]

Good thread over China’s faltering economy and imminent stimulus conundrum. Monetary easing just announced as down payment. As Michael says, the measures apparently being considered are old school, more if same, ineffective. There’s more …. 1/4

[Guoguang Wu / 吴国光 @guoguang_wu]

这个标题起得奇怪。我要澄清一下：从没有人和我“连线”谈什么习近平接班人问题。

[Thomas Yao  @ghosTM55]

经过 @kevinzhow 确认，我们的挚友左耳朵耗子 @haoel 已于周六晚突发心梗辞世

陈皓是个有原则、正直、风趣、聪明的人，他对 IT 行业作出了不可磨灭的贡献

他一生有很多成就，而我愿意最后以一起打游戏的好友记住他

R.I.P.

[Gideon Rachman @gideonrachman]

My latest lays out three big reasons for keeping Taiwan out of Beijing’s clutches: support for democracy; preventing CCP domination of Asia; and Taiwan’s crucial role in the world economy. Pace Macron this is not irrelevant for Europe https://t.co/RSaE7c4kHQ