Gopal Misra

Interested in Stocks

[Sanjay Kathuria @sanjaykathuria]

"People call mutual funds the country's biggest scam. So if an AMC shuts down tomorrow, is your money gone?"

"Banks shut down. Foreign companies pack up and leave India. Ever heard of a mutual fund shutting down and losing your money?"

"Your money isn't with the AMC. I work for one, and even I can't touch your fund's money. It sits in a trust, with a custodian. We just manage it, we don't own it."

@NileshShah68 on Is your Mutual Funds Safe?

Watch Full Podcast here : https://t.co/y5A5v3zGOA

[Harsh Goenka @hvgoenka]

I shared my life mantras with the young folks who joined us recently at #RPG
You may enjoy seeing our cool ‘sporting’ conference room in the background.

[Jota @jota_snchez]

David Sinclair es el biólogo de Harvard que demostró que el envejecimiento no es inevitable y que es una enfermedad que puede ralentizarse.

Reveló 6 hábitos que haces a diario y que están acelerando tu envejecimiento sin que lo sepas.

1) Comer 3 veces al día

[Gopal Misra @GopalMisra17]

@nikesharora @HarryStebbings Sure, it is good for people following you

[Nikesh Arora @nikesharora]

Welcome to the second half of the year.

The actions of hyperscalers in terms of their capital commitments will be key as the year proceeds, expect an uptick across the board, the demand is real.

The flip side - the funding sources will need to be from the capital markets. The largest companies will flip to negative cash flow except for one or two.

Hyperscalers have balance sheet capacity to do so (for 1-3 years), however new Frontier labs will need to go public, not sure there's more private market capital available to support their Capex needs. Of course, there's the chip guys, NVIDIA is at the party, will MU join the investment party to keep spending going?

We still need visibility for when AI revenues will start to fund much of this cash need.

Expect more advertising plays from LLMs, Token prices have to decline to drive Enterprise adoption. Expect LLMs to chase more vertical profit pools, legal, life science, expecting physical AI companies. Pure models will continue to see arbitrage with open source touching 30% usage, depth will create a better moat, breadth will commoditize. It's not a demand problem - "it's a monetization problem". Silicon valley has always built product with intensity and the market has funded adoption years.

This time it might just be too big and the market may not have capacity to fund everyone. "Darwinian moment for AI providers?"

If you are a founder, or a CEO - don't be distracted, focus on your product, how it gets better with AI. Eventually product and customer adoption will bring us to the other side, but expect a bit of a wild ride. We are still early in many PMF categories. Speed could create waste, but waiting and watching could leave us behind.

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

The Most Powerful Warren Buffett Interview Ever Recorded — Lessons Wall Street Ignores”

[Rohit @HeyRohhit]

Watch this 2-hour Lee Kuan Yew interview. It'll change how you think about leadership.
It is more valuable than 20 business books.
Bookmark & give it 2hour today, no matter what.

[田中 聡 ♧ GOKKO_CEO @gokko_ceo]

メッシ、走行距離は618人中618位。得点は618人中1位。

この極端すぎるデータの正体がポジショニング。
90分を60秒に圧縮してみた。

ロナウドはスペースを埋め、メッシはスペースを作る。

ロナウドはゴール前の、最も決められる位置に居続ける。だがそこに居座ることでDFも固定され、味方の飛び込むスペースが消える。

メッシは走らない。歩いて、ペナ外の一見怖くない位置に降り続けるだけ。それでも世界一マークを外してはいけない選手だから��DFは付いていくしかない。結果、ゴール前が空き、味方が生きる。そして90分のどこかで必ずマークが剥がれ、その瞬間に仕留める。

ロナウドからマークは剥がれない。
メッシからは勝手に剥がれていく。

チームプレーを覚えたスーパースターは、最も脅威。
#Messi #Ronaldo #WorldCup2026

[Gopal Misra @GopalMisra17]

Quote of the Day by Karl Marx: "To be radical is to grasp the root of the matter. But for man, the root is.... https://t.co/WJF9ohLFxu via @economictimes

[Melvin @MelvinInvests]

The selloff in Micron is one of the best buying opportunities you'll see this year (Save this).

Sanjay Mehrotra just explained exactly why the old mental model for Micron, cyclical, commodity, mean reverting no longer applies.

Every AI system, regardless of what device it runs on, requires more memory at higher performance to unlock its full potential.

From data centers to smartphones to autonomous vehicles, memory is no longer a supporting actor but rather the critical bottleneck determining how fast AI can move.

What makes this cycle structurally different starts with what happened in 2023.

Certain customers drove industry pricing to one third of 2022 levels, forcing Micron into severe losses while still requiring $10 billion in investment just to stay competitive.

Most companies in that situation cut spending and survive but Micron invested through the pain with the vision that the other side would be worth it.

Those 2023 investments are now producing 84.9% gross margins, $41.46 billion in quarterly revenue, and Q4 guidance of $50 billion up from $11.3 billion in the same quarter just one year ago.

That is what it looks like when a company bets on itself at exactly the right moment.

Even Micron's own largest customers, Nvidia, Google, Amazon could not forecast the scale of AI memory demand that materialized.

When the biggest technology companies in the world cannot project their own memory requirements, you are watching a structural transformation that nobody had models to predict, still in its early innings.

Supply cannot respond quickly enough to close that gap.

Mehrotra confirmed on air that tightness extends beyond 2027, new domestic fabs take years to bring online, and new HBM capacity which requires advanced 3D stacking that compounds in complexity at every generation won't meaningfully arrive until late 2028.

There is no fast fix to a shortage of the most valuable memory on earth.

The strategic customer agreements are the most underappreciated part of the entire story.

Multi-year contracts with volume commitments and price floors now cover roughly 20% of DRAM volume and 30% of NAND volume, locking in a $100 billion contractual revenue base.

The old Micron was at the mercy of customers who could crater prices overnight while the new Micron has contractual floors that make the 2023 scenario structurally impossible to repeat.

Long Micron and make sure to follow me @MelvinInvests for more deep dives into AI and memory.

[Hemant Pandey @hemant_pandey17]

Meta is building a cloud business to take on AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud.

[Ippo @0xIppo]

Blackstone co-founder Steve Schwarzman:

"Part of being an entrepreneur is suffering psychic pain. You're really on your own."

after co-founding Blackstone with Pete Peterson in 1985, he mailed 450 letters announcing the firm - and the phone never rang.

left Lehman with no brand name + $400K and a worthy fantasy + the no-name boutique now manages $1.3 trillion - that's the setup.

Bookmark this.

[Vishal Sikka @vsikka]

Hi everyone, I have an exciting bit of news, and this one is close to home.

My (much) better half, Vandana, has quietly built something beautiful. It's called VaSi.
A Vasi is a resident, someone who truly inhabits a place. That is the idea at the heart of her app: to help each of us inhabit life a little more deeply by learning from the people around us — the things we are passionate about, and the things we have never tried — through guides, live classes, and by sharing what we are good at. Vandana calls it her Gyaan ki Dukaan: her shop of wisdom.

A few weeks ago, I got to see it from the inside. I taught an AI class on VaSi live experiences, the part of the app where people share/teach what they know, in real-time. The class sold out in a few hours and those who joined, asked real questions as they learnt. There were real conversations, real insights that got developed and shared. And when it ended, each of them left with their own set of next steps, so the learning didn't evaporate the moment we said goodbye.

I loved the experience. In an age where so much "knowledge" is synthetic, and chatbots offer a kind of hollow intimacy, sitting with a room of curious, present human beings felt like something we need more of. Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) put it well recently: "As one thing (digital content) becomes cheap and plentiful, another thing (in-person experiences) becomes expensive and rare." (https://t.co/7o91faYVmH)

Perhaps the best part is: you don't have to be an expert to benefit from VaSi. Every one of us can be a creator, an entrepreneur and share what we are good at with others and monetize it. If you have unique expertise in fitness, yoga or weight loss, travel, finance or fashion or any other walk of life that matters to people, if the elderly in your life have some family recipes or some deep wisdom to share, if you have a cool hobby to teach or just want to show your city’s best spots or help students excel in academics, someone out there would love to learn from you. Teach it live on VaSi experiences, or share it anytime through Dots. You set the price, and you start earning the moment your knowledge starts working for someone else. No waiting to build a following first.

I think it is an important example of thriving in the time of AI. Of course I'm just the advisor here. And @VTSikka's loudest cheerleader. This one is her labor of love, and you can feel it everywhere in the app.

VaSi is live now: https://t.co/AQBF577bt8 Come learn something new, and come share what you know. What you have lived through has value to someone else…

— Vishal
@VTSikka
@VaSi_Ai

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

Iran hit another ship. The U.S. struck back. Iran hit Bahrain. The U.S. struck back again. Fmr U.S. Navy intel officer Malcolm Nance calls it the loop tape of stupid.

Iran is announcing their retaliatory strikes in advance, hitting the same 3 empty targets every single time, and the U.S. is blowing up the same radar towers Iran replaces within days.

Nobody is winning anything. Malcolm says they're just burning through inventory while the global oil supply gets closer to what he calls tank bottom.

How do you actually force Iran out of the strait? You'd need to invade 8 Iranian islands, fly in 10k Marines, and accept that within hours Qatar loses its gas production, the UAE gets bombarded around the clock, and the Iranians execute a plan they've had since the 1980s to push across the Arabian Peninsula.

Malcolm had an actual copy of the war game on his desk.

The Iranians have shown more strategic restraint than the U.S., not because they can't escalate, but because they're thinking long ball. They didn't use a thousand Chinese anti-ship missiles they've been stockpiling since 1988. They didn't fire everything at the Abraham Lincoln. They're waiting.

His advice to the president: take the deal. You made this bed.

Enjoy my interview with @MalcolmNance

[Milk Road AI @MilkRoadAI]

Today is Micron's earnings day and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has been saying the same thing for months, memory is not a commodity anymore (Save this).

But rather a strategic asset and the world does not have enough of it.

His core argument starts with how AI actually works.

As inference scales, meaning as AI gets deployed to billions of end users rather than just trained in labs, the number of tokens being generated every second explodes.

And every one of those tokens requires fast memory to exist.

Mehrotra's point is that inference is not a software problem but rather a memory problem and that problem compounds with every new AI application, every new user, and every new model deployed at scale.

The financial results behind that thesis are already historic.

Micron's fiscal Q2 2026 revenue came in at $23.86 billion, nearly triple the year ago figure and a blowout against Wall Street's consensus.

Earnings per share hit $12.20, a 38.6% surprise above estimates on record gross margins.

HBM revenue crossed $1 billion in a single quarter for the first time in Micron's history, while combined AI-related memory revenue reached $10 billion, a more than five-fold increase year-over-year.

Then Micron guided fiscal Q3 2026 to $33.5 billion at the midpoint, a nearly $10 billion sequential increase on top of a quarter that had already shocked the Street.

These are numbers that force a fundamental re-evaluation of what Micron is worth.

The reason the numbers can be this large is that supply cannot keep up, and that constraint is structural.

Micron's entire calendar 2026 HBM output is already sold out under price and volume agreements meaning there is no spot market and no ability for new customers to get product at any price.

At JPMorgan's technology conference, Mehrotra disclosed that Micron can only fulfill 50 to 67% of medium-term demand from its largest customers, because HBM physically requires more than three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM to produce the same number of bits.

As the industry transitions from HBM3E to HBM4 and eventually HBM4E, that production ratio gets harder meaning adding HBM capacity actually tightens supply of conventional DRAM at the same time.

The HBM total addressable market alone tells the story of what is still coming.

Micron forecasts the HBM TAM growing from approximately $35 billion in 2025 to around $100 billion by 2028, a 40% compound annual growth rate which would make HBM alone larger than the entire DRAM market was just two years ago.

Management expects tightness across HBM, DRAM, and NAND to continue well beyond calendar 2026, because the structural forces driving it are not temporary.

Milk Road Pro members are up massively on the memory trade, come join us for just a $1 to get every earnings call, and every data point on the HBM supply chain.

Link below!

[Startup Archive @StartupArchive_]

Jeff Bezos responds to CNBC reporter who says Amazon isn’t a “pure internet company”

The CNBC reporter asks Jeff in this 1999 interview:

“You’re not really a pure internet company anymore, are you? You’ve got millions of square feet of real estate, a huge and growing inventory of items, and you’ve got thousands of employees now.”

Jeff responds:

“Yes, we have over 3,000 employees and over 4 million square feet of distribution center space. And those are things I’m very, very proud of. That distribution center space allows us to get product close to customers so that we can ship it to customers in a very timely way, which improves customer service levels. If there’s one thing Amazon is about, it’s obsessive attention to the customer experience end-to-end.”

The reporter protests that this approach is more capital-intensive than the “pure internet play” business models that stock market analysts prefer.

Jeff responds again:

“It doesn’t matter to me if we’re a pure Internet play. What matters to me is whether we provide the best customer service… Our investors should be investing in a company that obsesses over customer experience. In the long term, there’s never any misalignment between customer interests and shareholder interests.”

Source: @CNBC (1999)

[Gopal Misra @GopalMisra17]

Galbraith’s bezzle lurks beneath the AI frenzy https://t.co/wNcAiEkzkT

[Ruslan Khairullin @Rus_Khairullin]

Three years in Dubai has taught me something nobody ever wrote on a Western opinion page.

The whole “you need democracy to be free” thing is a marketing campaign.

What you actually need is a government that does its job. Streets that work. A bank that doesn’t treat you like a suspect for earning money. Schools that teach. Hospitals that heal. Police that show up. Borders that filter. A passport that opens doors instead of closing them.

The West sold the world on the idea that voting every 4 years for two interchangeable parties was the highest form of human freedom. Meanwhile the country they called authoritarian built the cleanest, safest, most efficient city most of these critics will never see in person.

Freedom isn’t a ballot. It’s the ability to walk home at 1 AM, raise your kids in peace, run a business without getting punished for it, and live a life the people in charge don’t actively try to make harder.

Dubai has more of that than London, Paris, Berlin, San Francisco, and Toronto combined right now. The voters in those cities can vote all they want. They’ve been voting themselves into a slower decline for a decade.

I didn’t move here for the weather. I moved here because this was the first place I lived where the country was actually on my side. 🇦🇪

[Vishal Sikka @vsikka]

I learnt a long time ago that there is a big difference between making a living and making a life. In the times to come, AI will get increasingly better at the skills that we've used to make a living. Our imperative will be to instead make lives. Not artificial lives. Or artificial lives. But our own lives and of those we love. As machines get better at answering, and solving what they are asked, our work is to get better at asking, at making, creating, and deciding which questions are worth a life, and refusing to outsource that.

[Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma]

With everybody's permission, let me explain the FCNR arithmetic:

A. Current rates being offered: ~6% USD, 3 year deposits ( eg, HDFC bank etc, although AU is offering 7%)

B. Private banks are the only entities that give funding for such instruments. ( PSU Banks don't because they don't have a private banking practice.

C. Funding rates are still getting worked out but it does look likely that ICICII Bank will be the lead Bank in this particular round. In 2013 it was right at the fore front but BNP was also there.

Why?

Because the banks that are aggressive in raising such deposits need to have, a private banking business, and also a very large local India lending business.

This is absolutely critical: it helps a lot if the lending Bank for the overseas leg has a large local India business, eg, ICICI bank.

Because when you are raising such USD deposits you simply cannot get adequate avenues for lending in the international markets.

You need to lend to the domestic Indian market and for that you need the loan franchise. BNP no longer has this edge. HDFC bank has its own overseas issues, AT1 Credit Suisse bonds etc.

D. A critical think to be kept in mind is of course that when you get leverage to invest in such deposits, private banks typically offer you only one month floating rates.

Nobody gives you three year fixed rates because that is much too risky from a rate perspective.

Therefore there is an interest rate swap ( IRS) involved, from floating to fixed USD.

So, given the current interest rates structure globally, base rate would be 1 month SOFR , which is around 3.75%.

3 year IR swaps may be around 4-4.5%.

Now a private bank will put a credit cost on top of this for the non resident, eg, around 1%.

This is simply a judgement on the credit risk of the borrower. Then on top of that the private bank will put a profit spread of around 0.5%.

All in all, I would imagine that the final cost to the non resident Indian would come to around 5.5% or thereabouts, after considering the interest rate swap and the other costs.

If indeed the leverage given is 19:1, as was the case in 2013, the return on equity for the borrower non resident will come to ~15%.

That's pretty good.

So it should be able to gather decent capital.

But do keep in mind that in 2013, the capital raised like this was literally a buffer.

Overseas flows were healthy right throughout the taper tantrum period ( barring one month).Full year was +10 billion.

This time this capital is going to fund a leaking boat, not act as a buffer.

~$40-50 billion would be around 3-4 months of F2 outflows.

Critical difference this time vs 2013.

Separately, yesterday,F2s sold a lot less... because D2s bought a lot less. The lower May,June MF inflows are preventing F2s from selling more.

A slowdown, even outflows, in MF flows would be a gift from God for our BoP.