GothamPolling

Specialized polling for political, municipal & advocacy campaigns. We capture real opinions & forecast trends to shape winning strategies. #datadriven

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

GOTHAM POLL featured in @nypost
"Also, an @AARPNY -commissioned analysis of the upcoming June 23 congressional Democratic primary in Manhattan District 12 to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler predicts that older voters ages 50 and up — not the youth — will likely decide the outcome.

@GothamPolling reported that Democrats 50 and over accounted for 72-74% of the party primary turnout on Manhattan’s East and West sides in 2018 and 2022.

The consulting group’s report claimed that the Mamdani phenomenon in turning out younger voters won’t be replicated in a more confined congressional race.

“The 2025 mayoral primary was a remarkable event: record turnout, unprecedented youth engagement, and a 50+ share that dipped below historical norms. But it was a mayoral primary — a different election type with different mobilization dynamics,” the Gotham analysis said.

“The historical record shows that when the next congressional primary follows a mayoral surge, the electorate reverts to its structural baseline [a higher share of older voters turning out].” "

https://t.co/YqDE7yBDbl

@stephenegraves @SchwartzDefense @GothamGovt

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

@stephenegraves @SchwartzDefense

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

⭐️ POLL RESULTS ⭐️
New Analysis: Voters 50+ Will Make Up as Much as 75% of Electorate in NY-12 Democratic Primary

@AARPNY & Gotham Polling Find Older Voters Will Decide Outcome of Competitive Manhattan Congressional Race

NEW YORK — A new analysis commissioned by AARP New York and conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics finds that voters age 50 and older will be the decisive force in the upcoming Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District — the Manhattan-based seat currently represented by Congressman Jerry Nadler and one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country.

“For candidates running in NY-12, the message is clear: this election will be decided by voters 50 and older,” said Beth Finkel, State Director for AARP New York. “These voters show up, election after election. They expect candidates to address the issues that matter most to them, including protecting Social Security and supporting family caregivers."

“In NY-12 congressional primaries, voters 50 and older turn out at nearly three times the rate of voters under 50 and seven out of every ten voters who show up are 50+,” said Stephen Graves President of Gotham Polling & Analytics. The 2025 mayoral primary didn't change that, it just was an election with completely different dynamics. June 23 will be decided by the 50+ voters, who always decide these races. Any candidate who doesn't build a real 50+ strategy is running a campaign that doesn't match the electorate they're trying to win.”

https://t.co/3D4JOp3GEs

[aarpny @AARPNY]

📊 New AARP New York report: Voters 50+ could make up to 75% of the #NY12 Dem primary electorate.

@bethny: “This election will be decided by voters 50 and older.”

Voters 65+ turn out at ~15x the rate of ages 18–29.

Release: https://t.co/ZjdsEoke6k

[Beth Finkel @BethNY]

Data seems to bend to older voters, indicators for all candidates this election year.

[Empire Report @EMPIREREPORTNY]

NEW ANALYSIS: Voters 50+ Will Make Up as Much as 75% of Electorate in NY-12 Democratic Primary @AARPNY @BethNY
https://t.co/iCkIqvjc9W

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

@MarwanData What is surprising is that they found 9 people in that district in Far Rockaway to vote for Mamdani. Must have been someone's kids. North East Queens is also much more conservative and areas like Whitestone are still fairly Italian. Forest Hills is mostly Jewish.

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

On #FlashBackFriday - highlighting .@GothamPolling / .@AARPNY .@NYCMayor election POLL:

“By the numbers, it’s surprising,” Graves said. “It’s going to be between a congressional election and a presidential election. This one, being near 2 million, is huge.”
- Gotham Polling President .@stephenegraves in the .@nypost by .@createcraig & .@jfitzgibbon

https://t.co/1GtqMqIMvc

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

Very Insightful. Many of these voters are notoriously hard to poll because they may have never voted, may speak English only as a second language and are less likely to respond to any outreach that may seem "official". Door to door and phone banking within an ethnic group can be the only way to obtain an accurate reading within this sample set.

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

Ever wonder how polls work?🗳️
Pollsters survey a sample of people to gauge how the public might vote or feel about issues.
It’s science + timing.
#Polling101 #GothamPolling #NYC #NYCMayor #election #politics

[Gotham Government Relations @GothamGovt]

.@GothamPolling @stephenegraves predictions proved correct:

“By the numbers, it’s surprising,” Graves said. “It’s going to be between a congressional election and a presidential election. This one, being near 2 million, is huge.” Nov 2, 2025 @nypost

[Gotham Government Relations @GothamGovt]

POLL UPDATE - HISTORIC LEVELS
@GothamPolling @AARPNY
@nypost by @createcraig & @jfitzgibbon

" “As the turnout gets larger, it leans more moderate and brings in the independents,” Graves said" @stephenegraves President Gotham Polling

https://t.co/MNVQuUTuZt

[Gotham Government Relations @GothamGovt]

POLL @GothamPolling @AARPNY
@nypost by @createcraig & @jfitzgibbon
“By the numbers, it’s surprising,” Graves said. “It’s going to be between a congressional election and a presidential election. This one, being near 2 million, is huge.” @stephenegraves

https://t.co/MNVQuUTuZt

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

Interesting

[aaron from queens 🇵🇸 @aaronnarraph]

Zohran didn't win by relying on standard turnout patterns. We had to fundamentally transform the Democratic electorate.

I was part of a group of NYC-DSA members that applied lessons from our previous campaigns to design the “universe” of voters to talk to. Here's how we won 🧵

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

Keep in mind this is in addition to the 107k valid mailed in ballots - so well on our way to 2.1m total turnout.

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

@MichaelRapaport @CurtisSliwa Whatever reason @CurtisSliwa decided to stay in the #NYCMayor race, it is highly unlikely to be money. We know he has been offered considerably more than $1.5m to drop out when it still would have made a difference.

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

@jimfornyc Jim, though we weren’t really sure what your candidacy was about in such a crowded race, everyone we spoke with said good things about you—no one negative. If you’d ever had a shot at winning that might change, but our sincere respect to for you stepping in the ring.

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

@rontkim @ZohranKMamdani @rontkim With respect, is there any other city, either in the USA or abroad, whom you can point to as a shining example of success of this approach - the more beefy government hand in business operations that @ZohranKMamdani is promising? Govs are not known for their mgmt skills.

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

@AngelaBelcamino Its an impressive psyops operation actually. Brilliant. Clearly the people behind Mamdani's campaign have hired really smart operators.

[GothamPolling @GothamPolling]

@jimfornyc @NYCMayor @CurtisSliwa @andrewcuomo The hard math is really rather simple:
70-73% of the votes will be Democrats
10-14% will be Republican
14-20% will be no-party independents
Even if Sliwa gets every single one of the GOP and indy votes, he would need to win about 20% of Dems who go to polls. How likely is that?