One of the best books I’ve read in recent years is Going Infinite by Michael Lewis.
Not because it absolves SBF.
It doesn’t.
What it does exceptionally well is explain the environment that shaped him, the incentives around him, and how a series of seemingly rational decisions can compound into a catastrophic outcome.
Most people read a headline, pick a villain, and move on.
The book forces you to look deeper.
It takes you inside the culture of high-end quant trading, the mindset that develops at places like Jane Street, and the bizarre reality of the FTX headquarters in the Bahamas. You begin to understand how intelligent people can become detached from consequences when everything is reduced to probabilities, expected values, and numbers on a screen.
That doesn’t excuse what happened.
Thousands of people were hurt.
But if you’re looking for lessons, they aren’t found in the headlines. They’re found in the environment.
The most dangerous people in finance rarely think they’re the bad guy. They usually believe they’re the smartest person in the room.
History doesn’t repeat exactly, but it rhymes.
Read the book.
Pay attention to the culture, the incentives, and the blind spots. You’ll recognize pieces of it all over today’s markets.
大统领屁话很多, 不过这条比较关键: "open up" China so that these brilliant people can work their magic, and help bring the PR to an even higher level!
因为我感觉又是一个可以串到我前面写的逻辑线上的一个证据点. 前文: https://t.co/r8DdBAOznW --> miran 的 "贸易体系重构指南" 里面下半场的问题之一: 如果美元进入贬值通道, 会出现"换外汇, 买外国资产"的主动贬值的方法, 承接这些美元洪水的资产如果是中国手里的资产, 美元资本会面临被无情管控的局面. 里面Miran 的这句原话是: " Moreover, even if we trusted assets from China to be money good, it’s not even
clear what we could buy at scale given capital controls around the Chinese economy." 拉通去年到今年的 timeline, 很多事情发生, 不过总体来说, Trump 照着 Miran 的 play 在表演的线索还是很明显的.
简单说, 美元洪水开闸后需要找到匹配水量的底层资产做价值支撑, 不然只会放个大烟花. 可以炒 NVDA 炒到 5T, 甚至 10T, 20T, 因为它自身是真有工厂, 有工程师, 有产能, 估值倍数再高, 洪水之中, 言之有理就会有人买单, 而如果把一个路边摊炒到 5T 只会把自身货币爆破掉.
只要中国愿意背书, 我们应该半年内就能看到美元的洪水滔天. 不过这对于中国来说只会给三个字"凭什么"? 要各种战打输了, 那认输到合理, 单方面的用实际的工厂和工人去给凭空印出来的美元做价值锚定物本来就是一种经济上的殖民表现, 而现在的 upper hand 是中国, 要中国所谓 "开放市场", 给美元背书是需要代价的. 所以现在的问题是, 大统领要给的代价是什么?