Grinding the Mocks

Official home of #GrindingTheMocks: using mock drafts, the wisdom of crowds, and machine learning to predict the NFL Draft. Created by @benj_robinson.

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

Was excited to make my triumphant return to @WMoneyball! Pretty cool to share an episode with @R_Thaler. Also, I’m happy to announce that @GrindingMocks worked with 7 teams out of 32 in the NFL last year. Onward and upward!

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

You can see from this chart why the Draft Probability Model thought that Nuss, Allar, and Klubnik would follow in Ewers' footsteps. Turned out it was just Nuss!

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

In my Draft Probability Models' numbers, the biggest reach in the 2026 NFL Draft was, in fact, the Steelers drafting Drew Allar. That model thought that Allar, Cade Klubnik, and Garrett Nussmeier were all going to follow in the footsteps of Quinn Ewers last year

[Grinding the Mocks @GrindingMocks]

Top 3 Draft Capital Over Expected Fallers:
1. Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee (EDP: 22, Pick: 101, Las Vegas Raiders)
2. Deion Burks, WR, Oklahoma (EDP: 89, Pick: 254, Indianapolis Colts)
3. Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (EDP: 90, Pick 249, Kansas City Chiefs)

[Grinding the Mocks @GrindingMocks]

I present to you my pride and joy: Draft Capital Over Expected for the 2026 NFL Draft. The Jaguars are giving the 49ers a run for their money in the chase for consensus boards, while the Colts and Raiders are rewarded for halting some prospects' big falls!

[Grinding the Mocks @GrindingMocks]

Top 3 Draft Capital Over Expected Reaches:
1. Nate Boerkircher, TE, Texas A&M (EDP: 191, Pick: 56, Jacksonville Jaguars)
2. Albert Regis, DT, Texas A&M (EDP: Undrafted, Pick: 81, Jacksonville Jaguars)
3. Zavion Thomas, WR, LSU (EDP: Undrafted, Pick 89, Chicago Bears)

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

We can do this now, but with the Jaguars and almost any of their other picks! Still the G4, though. Speaks to the lack of depth in the class. And yes, I know Jake Slaughter was announced as a guard!

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

Welp. This is very Ruben Hypolite-esque! Yuck. 7th Round Value.

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

Surprised that Kaelon Black went before Mike Washington and Jonah Coleman! Will be a pretty decent overdraft here, too.

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

It's always easy to see Iowa players as Steelers players for some reason...

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

It truly was! Went later than his ceiling. Hopefully, he gets back to his form from this year!

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

Go off, king!

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

An alternative metric for mock draft quality is the pick-adjusted mean squared error. By that number, this mock by @1TimMurray is our top mock of the cycle! Will publish some of this data on https://t.co/ncxMku15Ux at some point in the future.
https://t.co/3VPxvXIXA8

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

According to @GrindingMocks data, and given that Jermod McCoy is still waiting to be drafted, this mock from @jamfed is my pick for the "most accurate" in this year's cycle by our pick-adjusted rank correlation. Oh, and he published it on 3/23!
https://t.co/y1LOflMzce

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

D'Angelo Ponds is bringing his talents to bigger waters!

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

The Jaguars would take someone from outside of my Top 100 with their first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft!

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

Love this pick for any team with an EDGE need (aka any team in the NFL)! Good value for the Patriots (and two trade-ups) for premium position players.

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

The Browns are having a heck of a draft!

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

Another TE, another player drafted outside of my Top 100 players!

[Benjamin Robinson @benj_robinson]

Madness! But, sure. Thought he was more of a Day 3 guy!