The stock woke up this week and I have been getting questions about $LODE.
See below.
The bull case ….
➡️Sell land … stock goes up
➡️Start scaling panel recycling … stock goes up
➡️Sell mining assets anywhere near the company’s published valuation … stock goes up.
➡️Cashed up, so no need to raise.
➡️Given the state of the world, that Bioleum call option looks more promising
You don’t need all these things to happen although that would be nice.
The bear case …
Literally anything else.
That’s not an exaggeration or a joke. This is a company and CEO that have tried numerous pivots from mining since 2014, and diluted shareholders in the process. Until Bioleum and/or panel recycling take off, it’s fair and accurate to say none of those pivots have worked. It’s also fair and accurate to say all these investments outside mining have come at a brutal cost to shareholders who have held through the entirety of CDG’s tenure as CEO.
There are also governance red flags although new large shareholders mitigate that risk going forward in my view.
Conclusion …
Value investors new to the name seem compelled to itemize and value $LODE on a SOTP basis. That ignores previous capital allocation decisions that led to all those parts trading at a discount inside this particular company.
The parts provide a floor if panel recycling and Bioleum don’t work. Nice to have, but there’s no way the stock trades at liquidation value if that happens. This isn’t a company that’s earned that particular benefit of the doubt. Those parts need to be converted to cash or moved into other companies so $LODE can become a pure play solar panel recycling company.
No, I am buying $LODE because I think they can do something I have never seen before. The same management that diluted shareholders to oblivion generates a multibag return in an entirely different business.
It’s okay to be bullish Comstock and what they are trying to accomplish. I am. But understand why you are so lucky and go into $LODE with your eyes wide open as to why this valuation mismatch even exists.
Long $LODE. Initial price target of $14-$16 share.