The S&P 500 triggered a rare technical event today, gapping above both its 50D and 200D moving averages simultaneously.
This looked weird to me, so I did some digging.
Since 1950, this specific signal has occurred only four times. In every instance, the index faced significant pullbacks shortly after. The average three month drawdown following the signal is -9.51%, with the worst three month drawdown reaching -12.92% during 2018.
Historically this has always been an exhaustion gap rather than a sustainable rally.
Maybe this time is different.
$FSLY was highest volume ever yesterday by 2x!! INSANE VOLUME.
Up another 13% today making higher highs.
I haven't see a monster like this in quite some time.'
Just hard to get size on in this current market.
I have been tracking SPX Expected Moves for many years, so what I say next is based on my opinion and prior experience. We just went two weeks in a row without tagging the weekly Expected Move. Itās fairly rare to go three weeks in a row without tagging. We did that during last Decemberās holiday trade; the time before that was in October 2024.
Given that itās rare and that price on $SPY has been coiling up, I would absolutely expect us to move the ±14 of expectations next week. Itās possible it doesnāt, but it is more probable when basing it on historic EMs.
This is what $SPY looks like YTD with each weekly EM. We have had 1 close outside of the weekly EM (12.5%), 4 out of 8 weeks tagged (50%), 7 out of 8 weeks closed inside (87.5%).
The weekly expected moves have been rather large. In my opinion, itās because we have had elevated/trending volatility, but also because we have spent a lot of time underneath the gamma flip line.
Let's get ready to rumble!!!
Society is broken and hereās proof:
None of these do anything for you unless
1. Youāre long-term investing (Hood/Coinbase)
2. Youāre intelligent enough to arbitrage the majority of idiots using them (10%)
Everyone else is exit liquidity that results in a WORSE society at large
$SPY
Why 687 is so important to me.
History shows it.
2022. Ascending triangle accompanied with a rising wedge.
Ascending triangle failed.
Cya later.
2025. Ascending Triangle accompanied with a rising wedge.
Ascending triangle failed.
Cya Later.
2026??
Ascending triangle accompanied with a rising wedge.
Its clear buyers will keep trying for higher above 687 (see since January 5th) but once that fails.. look out.
History doesn't repeat for the same reason as to why we will top but you can see it rhyming in the structure.
Especially once you look at the dates the other local tops occurred and where we are now timeline wise
The looks wrong? Here's a photo from Dec 15th I bought. I've never seen $BE SOFCs in this pattern.
Local filings suggest linear generators are providing power until Bergens arrive.
Maybe these are Mainspring 250kW linears?
https://t.co/5UJbTl8fso
https://t.co/M8wbqyz5Nq
Larry Page: āElon is one of the people who genuinely understands physics and applies it.ā
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Tom Mueller: āHeās a super smart guy and he learns from talking to people. Heās so sharp, he just picks it up.ā
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George Church: āElon Musk is extraordinarily intelligent and unusually well-read across sciences.ā
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Miguel Nicolelis: āElon Musk is a brilliant mind, even when he overreaches.ā
George Hotz: āElon is actually very smart. People underestimate how technical he really is.ā
Sal Khan: āElon Musk is a deeply intelligent person who genuinely understands the science behind what heās building.ā
Mark Cuban: āElon is very smart and ahead of the curve.ā
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Cory Doctorow: āElon Musk is obviously very smart. Thatās not in dispute.ā
Tim Urban: āElon Musk is one of the deepest first-principles thinkers Iāve ever encountered.ā
Uday Kotak: āElon Musk is a genius in the way he combines engineering with execution.ā
$AMD
Still in a down trend from the October high
wave w and wave y show similar time duration, if this final corrective wave z exhibits similar time relationship, price is set to bottom around the first week of December