HaberBosch

Retail/Value investor/CPA - O&G (95%): BNO, ATH, VIST, USO,UCO, PBR, OVV & YPF - Food (4%): WEAT & CORN- Techno: SKYX (1%)- Do your own DD

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

$WEAT
https://t.co/YS2Yq45FZm

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Seeing a bit of wheat weather stress building everywhere.

Those past weeks of heatwave / lack of precipitation across Western Europe took their toll.

The US winter wheat crop is now past saving (worse vegetation vigor reading in 10+ years)

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

Seems like the crude and product squeeze is around the corner. #oott #oilgas
https://t.co/ToEG0ir7FO

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

The Strait remains closed, yet oil has sold off $18/bbl due to impressively effective jawboning by the Whitehouse. Even if a deal emerges and things open in July, we will still forfeit ~2BN barrels of production and inventories will still be drawn down to record lows.

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

What if the state of Hormuz didn't reopen ? The analogy is the 8-year closure of the Suez canal (67-75) #oott #hormuz #tankers
https://t.co/LDaPtfOg1g

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

"The SofH will be removed as a choke point within 5 years. GCC will be building pipelines. It may cost $50 to $70 billions." Morgan Downey
#oott #tankers #oilgas #hormuz

https://t.co/IRMyDU6vgt

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

@CristianGeo7 Bought some before Meli took over. What a great run.

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

Strait of Hormuz may never ‘return to normal’, warns Kpler
#oott #iran #hormuz
https://t.co/6FvmLcvP68

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

"there are 2 sectors that lead the equity market; one is energy and the other one is tech... this (current) rotation out of tech into hard assets" Jeffrey Currie
#oott #tech #Magnificent7

https://t.co/qiHL2SnD1Y

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

"Financial markets price expectation, commodity markets price the physical reality of today" Jeffrey Currie $BNO $USO $WEAT $CORN #oott #hormuz #iran
https://t.co/gQ5wMHFEOb

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

The oil market is about to break.
Not in price. In availability.
@CommodMkt on CNBC yesterday

and the market still isn’t listening.
“It’s not the price of oil that matters here. It’s the availability of oil.”
A thread on why the next few weeks could be the most important in the oil market this decade. 🧵

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

At $105 a barrel of oil, the Exxon, Chevron and Total of this world will generate 15.5% free cash flow (P/E of 7). By comparison magnificent 7 generate a free cash flow of 1.5% and P/E of 28. This is an abstract of Jeff Currie posting. #oott #oilgas

https://t.co/hY91TOdPHy

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.

The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.

Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.

Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

Polymarket odds for an #IranWar‌ peace deal before June 30 are at 34%. It's a pattern that should brings more upside than downside for certain stocks $uso $bno $uco $ath.to $vist $pbr $ypf $weat #oott #oilgas #hormuz

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

"Defeat for the USA, therefore, is not only possible but likely. Here is what defeat looks like.Iran remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will be able not only to demand tolls for passage, but to limit transit to those nations with which it has good relations. #oott

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

"Checkmate" in Iran is an article by Robert Kagan. He was speechwriter for secretary of states Shultz. The strait of Hormuz will not open anytime soon. #oott #hormuz #oilgas
https://t.co/rlRZdh5fVf

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

Good read
https://t.co/bkQQt0LE7q

[Kuppy's Korner @kuppyskorner]

Why I Avoid Tech...
https://t.co/ftWRF8OjN1

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

#oott #oilgas #hormuz #energymarkets
https://t.co/2cm08rCXxJ

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Thanks again to Mario for inviting me to discuss the state of the energy world, de-dollarisation, debasement and the revenge of the old economy - HALO!

https://t.co/KqhocMktFs

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

@AlaliQasem https://t.co/wH1MvvJmQE

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

@AlaliQasem Do we have 4 months? I was listening to Jeff Currie, shortage in Europe would occur at the end of this month.

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

Great podcast; it's a 2 for 1 - Johnston and Nuttall on the oil crisis with a focus on Canadian oil issues #oott #oilgas #energymarkets

https://t.co/fZXykEn9vi

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧

On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I'm joined by the one and only @ericnuttall to talk about the ongoing Hormuz crisis oil supply shock, how oil and gas equities are pricing the conflict, and what "the day after" might look like.
https://t.co/81fwDCR9ka

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

Jeff Currie states that it takes at least 3 months to fully open the SofH. The biggest oil consumption season runs from end of May to beginning of September. Yet Polymarket odds: peace deal by May 31 are at only 29%. Oil shortage? #oott #oilgas #jetfuel #hormuz #energymarkets

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

"Let say we open tomorrow, you got to be really confident there's no mine in that main passageway ... then the insurance has to be confident there is no mine, then you need to get all the ship back ... 3 months minimum" Jeff Currie #oott #oilgas #jetfuel
https://t.co/YubbmgsqIE

[HaberBosch @HaberB]

"We are going towards a cliff on oil and oil products, by the end of this month." Amos Hochstein #oott #hormuz #jetfuel #energycrisis #oilgas #energymarkets
https://t.co/UljpNllnVZ