Polymarket - faster than news!
I measured how fast info gets priced in using "Time-to-Reaction":
TimeToReact=t1−t0
➤t0 = Time news breaks
➤t1 = Time market first moves
Here's the average "Time-to-Reaction" (in minutes):
Polymarket: 0.5
ESPN(sport): 0.08
Reuters: 5
Fox Business: 15
MarketWatch: 30
Washington Post: 30
@Polymarket reaction time is insane. For real-time probabilistic signals, prediction markets are powerful they're fast, calibrated, and cheap to test!
It's a "reality thermometer" for world events!
P.S Big thanks to @said116dao for the idea and the Brier score comparison!
Do you think Polymarket will replace Reuters/ESPN for breaking news?