Hard Money History

Bitcoin is not a radical change, but the logical evolution of sound money.

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

I have not yet heard a convincing argument against #monero.

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

9 months ago, silver was $30. Silver fell $30 in the last 24 hours and is still 3 times what it was 9 months ago. Let that sink in 🤔

[Zynx @ZynxBTC]

I've been thinking more about Gold and Bitcoin and I think it boils down to this:

Central banks will accumulate Gold.

Private capital will accumulate Bitcoin.

Gold and Bitcoin represent two very different worlds.

Gold is the reserve asset of nation states which centralises power, requires custodial trust, borders, armies and institutions.

This is why it is getting the institutional bid as we are in the midst of a sovereign debt crisis.

In contrast...

Bitcoin is the reserve asset of sovereign individuals and private corporations. It decentralises power and is easier to self-custody.

Digital and Internet-based enterprises are some of the most valuable in the world. Bitcoin is digital capital and is globally liquid.

Gold is centralised capital. Bitcoin is mobile and decentralised capital.

As corporations become more global, more digital, and more balance-sheet-driven, their reserve asset naturally shifts toward the one that matches their operating reality.

That's why the private bid gravitates toward Bitcoin.

So, Gold has been outperforming recently because governments are fleeing to their global reserve asset.

But that outperformance won't last forever.

Over time, private capital will dominate and its global reserve asset of choice will be Bitcoin.

To conclude...

The largest accumulators of Gold will continue to be Central Banks.

The largest accumulators of Bitcoin will be private companies like Strategy.

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

If #silver can hold $100 then it's all on. Massive psychological resistance.

History unfolding before our eyes.

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

The march towards $5000 gold and $100 has been far more rapid than anyone could have predicted. Truly historic stuff to be a part of.

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

This is a staggering metric.

The 1M RSI on GOLD is now at the second highest level ever...

Second only to a period in 1968, almost 60 years ago, when GOLD was $55.

This is a truly generational run from GOLD and one of the strongest parabolas I have ever seen.

At some point, this comes to an end, as all parabolas do...

But it is anyones guess when.

One of the craziest things I've seen in my entire investment journey.

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

You won't need as much wealth as you think.

But only if you understand this one idea:

Tech deflation is coming in hard and fast.

- Robots will be farming, manufacturing, etc.
- There are massive economic incentives to make energy abundant
- Super smart AIs will work around the clock to solve our remaining problems

I see a lot of smart people assuming this means that everything is going to plummet in price.

Even @elonmusk said he expects prices to fall on a recent podcast

He's right, but only if you price things in Gold or Bitcoin (or equities) - NOT the dollar.

The existing monetary system cannot allow prices to fall in dollar terms for a simple reason:

No one can service debts if prices start falling.

Imagine a business takes out a $1 million loan because they think they can sell $2 million worth of widgets and service the debt

But what happens if prices fall and they can only sell $500K worth of widgets?

They can never pay back that $1 million loan

Multiply that across the entire economy...

Banks collapse, savings go with it, lending stops, etc.

That will not be allowed to happen.

That's why even though we've made incredible tech advances, a Big Mac is 46x more expensive today than in the 1950's.

Our monetary system requires inflation and debasement of the currency unit

So as tech advances faster and faster there will be MORE debasement, not less.

Everyone must realize:

EVERYTHING WILL GET CHEAP IN GOLD AND BTC TERMS

BUT NOMINAL PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE DOLLAR DEBASES

ASSET PRICES WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE GOING PARABOLIC WHEN MEASURED IN DOLLARS

If you understand this, you just save in gold / BTC, invest in quality equities, and get wealthier in real terms over time as tech innovation goes exponential.

Explain this concept to your friends and family now.

It's the only way to stay ahead of what's already happening.

Note on the chart: Performance of BTC, gold, and US treasuries (priced in gold) since October '23 when treasury secretary Janet Yellen capitulated by quietly shifting more US debt issuance into short term t-Bills instead of long term treasuries. Why did she do that? Because the market was telling her there weren't enough buyers for long term US debt.

That was the signal that the jig was up. And that hard assets were the only rational move.

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

20% of #silver position offloaded.

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

@SuperBitcoinBro It's got a good ring to it.

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

Checked my phone and out of nowhere #xmr hits a new ATH.

This is exciting. Watching closely for sustained breakout or topping formation.

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

On January 9, 1837 a new Coinage Act was passed.

Congress made a tiny tweak to the gold/silver ratio.

The new ratio was still above the market rate, so silver kept fleeing abroad while gold stayed in use.

A reminder: governments fixing the price of money never works.

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

Minimum order at Bullionstar has gone from SGD500 to SGD5000 😬

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

The sun is setting on the global fiat monetary system.

Governments spend themselves into oblivion, trust in the system evaporates, and currencies go to zero against hard money.

It has always been this way.

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

Gold is headed for new highs.

Central banks around the world are racing to secure more of it before the global sovereign debt super-bubble implodes.

And it's worth paying attention to what the most powerful entities in the world are fighting over.

Take Italy for example.

If we ignore China's mountain of unreported gold, Italy has the third highest reserves in the world.

How do they have so much?

Italy was an economic powerhouse post-WWII.

And they were smart enough to convert their dollar surplus into gold before the US closed the gold window in 1971.

They never sold their gold.

Now that the world is clearly transitioning back to gold as the neutral collateral of choice, Italy is making it clear that their gold holdings belong to the ITALIANS and not Europe as a whole.

Naturally the European Central Bank is not pleased about this.

Which is why they've been strongly urging Italy not to codify this idea into law.

If you read between the lines, you'll see that the global central banks realize the system is on a crash course with insolvency and Gold is going to play a key role in the eventual reset.

So where does that leave you as an investor?

It's critical you understand the importance that scarce neutral assets are going to play in the coming years.

Bitcoin has been greatly outperforming gold since 2020, but the truth is that the institutions that control global capital are all fighting over gold. For now.

The system is headed for a reset.

Knowing what I know, I can't imagine not holding both gold and Bitcoin right now.

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

On this day 9th Dec 1916, the little known Polish Marka was born.

This short lived currency followed a near parallel path into hyperinflation as the German papiermark.

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

We're living through a once-in-a-lifetime financial event.

A global monetary reset.

People will tell you everything is fine, but if you look closely you can see the wheels flying off the fiat clown car in real time.

Most people will only accept this reality after the fact.

But the central planners clearly see the writing on the wall.

That's why they are exit scamming into gold.

Central Banks are stacking bullion hand over fist, converting fiat promises into hard money as quickly as they can.

To understand what's happening, you need to look at Japan.

They spent years suppressing their bond yields to try to spur growth.

And people took advantage of the artificially low rates by taking out loans in Japan, and sending tons of money overseas to search for yield.

This pumped global asset markets.

But now Japan is proving that Yield Curve Control is not the solution many people assume it is.

Because eventually it leads to real world consequences.

Namely, inflation.

A central bank can buy bonds in infinite quantities with the click of a mouse, but they can't print energy.

Manipulation eventually leads to your currency buying less and less energy and commodities.

And digital manipulation manifests in the real world.

After years of negative rates, Japan has been forced to allow bond yields to rise to prevent the Yen from fully imploding.

So now the 10 year yield is going parabolic in the country with the highest debt-to-GDP levels in the world.

As everyone awaits the Fed to restart quantitative easing again, or even kick off Yield Curve Control if things get really hairy... It's worth thinking a couple steps ahead.

If Japan is showing us the ultimate conclusion of yield curve control is unacceptable levels of inflation... Why should we think that Yield Curve Control in the US is a solution to anything?

Fiat currencies are slowly failing.
Yields cannot be suppressed forever.

And assets that have had valuations pumped up by artificially low interest rates may have a very difficult repricing in their future relative to hard assets.

Keep in mind that equities that have been fueled by cheap debt and stock buybacks would be repriced in a world where debt is expensive again.

Most people can't imagine that scenario.

Still waiting for yields to fall back towards zero.

After 4 decades of falling interest rates, it's all most people know at this point.

But gold being up 32% vs. Nasdaq year to date despite the AI boom is your sign that it's time to pay attention.

The Treasury and Fed can make you think you're getting rich by pumping up your equity portfolio with fake dollars...

But equities are already falling in hard asset terms.

When push comes to shove, commodities, energy, and hard money are the true measuring stick.

The Fed starting yield curve control (or whatever other name they come up with) is going to cause smart investors to look ahead.

They will look at Japan as the endgame.

And they will understand that a full reset is inevitable.

Gold has historically been the asset that has survived every reset.

And I believe Bitcoin will ultimately play a role too as people learn to value things that cannot be printed from thin air. Things with a real-world cost of production linked to energy.

But without (until?) a steady Central Bank bid setting a price floor for Bitcoin, I'm mentally prepared for carnage until the world figures out the value of a finite, neutral reserve asset.

[MacroScope @MacroScope17]

Everyone knows about Germany's hyperinflation in the 1920s. Probably not as well known is how they got out of it:

The most important, perhaps the defining, characteristic of the new currency was…that the amount to be issued was to be rigidly fixed at 2.4 billion Rentenmarks, equivalent to around $600 million. Grasping that the key to its credibility was to keep it sufficiently scarce, Schacht was determined to ensure that the amount in circulation did not exceed its statutory ceiling under any circumstances.

Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World by Liaquat Ahamed (2009)

[Plan C @TheRealPlanC]

Most people have no idea how bullish it will be if Bitcoin can fight its way through this 4-year cycle astrology narrative and keep its head above water until next year.

Clearly, there is no intrinsic reason that Bitcoin has to follow a 4-year pattern. It makes zero logical sense, and the halving theories do not hold water.

Because of this narrative, there has clearly been a massive headwind for Bitcoin as the self-fulfilling prophecy of the 4-year cycle tries to drag us into a bear market.

If Bitcoin can hang on long enough and fight back to a degree that flips that narrative—as it's clear that this time is different—we will see a massive major shift.

We are in a very important time for Bitcoin as it's attempting to break the label of a speculative asset that has massive drawdowns at a predictable time.

It's fighting to position itself as a global store-of-value growth asset that follows macro influences but has no clear, predetermined cyclical pattern, which is extremely important for it to reach its full potential.

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

On this day 20 November 1923, the President of the Reichsbank, Rudy von Havenstein died of a heart attack.

He had overseen the disastrous hyperinflation, had refused to step down and had been an impediment to monetary reform.

[The Liberty Offensive @LibertyOffense]

1980: Silver reaches $48 and immediately crashes 30% in the first 2 weeks. By week 6, it was down 27%. By week 10 it had crashed 77%.

2011: Silver reaches $50 and crashes 35% within 2 weeks. By week 6, it was down 28%.

2025: Silver reaches $54 and dropped only 13% within 2 weeks. 6 weeks after hitting $54, silver is down only 8%.

Silver has never done a better job at these price levels. It is in the process of earning the trust we talked about last month.

1980 and 2011 share eerily similar selloffs within the first 6 weeks in terms of percentages over time. 2025 doesn't look anything like that. In fact, it's putting in bullish patterns as we speak while holding all momentum in the lower timeframes.

The longer prices remain elevated in this range, the stronger the range becomes. Old highs become new floors. Trust is built. Rotation comes into full swing.

Once the $50 floor is locked in, miners moonshot. At this point, the floor is more important than the ceiling.

Remember that. This perspective will help you understand a lot about the valuation of miners and climbing the wall of worry.

Also remember that this is the single largest breakout pattern in modern financial history.

[SilverChartist @SilverChartist]

💎My grandfather was a high school janitor and house painter.

​Mr grandmother was a stay-at-home mother to my dad and his three siblings.

They didn't have much, but owned a small home, never took on debt and even took the occasional modest vacation.

This is simply not possible for a janitor today!

Question: Why?

Answer: A private banking cartel has the exorbitant privilege of lending unbacked currency units into existence, which are paid back -with interest, of course- by the tax payer.

This stealth wealth transfer enriches the few who OWN ASSETS, and impoverishes the majority who trade their time for money to purchase consumer goods.

#GotPhysical | #SILVER | #GOLD | #URANIUM | #PLATINUM
https://t.co/TkiNNpcEQc

[Hard Money History @HardMoneyHist]

On this day 15 November 1923, Weimar Germany introduced the Rentenmark and brought a swift end to their hyperinflation nightmare.