Hardov

[Hardov @Hardov__]

In 1972, the See's Candies thesis was one question: could a $1.95 box of candy sell for $2.25?

On 16M pounds, that's $4.8M more pretax profit on a $25M purchase.

By 1998, Buffett expected See's to make ~$60M pretax, still needing almost no capital.

His twist: the moat isn't fixed. It widens or narrows at the counter, with every smile or snarl at the last customer in line.

[Reid @reidgrows]

https://t.co/YF5JtEIvDR

[Hardov @Hardov__]

Thirty success stories leave one question unanswered: how many people took the same risks and never recovered?

Persistence matters, but a list of winners cannot tell us whether their strategy works. That takes the failures too.

The useful lesson for investors: judge the decision process, test your assumptions, and keep enough room to survive being wrong.

[Diablo @diablomediablo]

https://t.co/x7GeZRYZf0

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@garrxttt The hard part is making sure economic pressure changes decisions at the top.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@cryp_cryp Wild day for your homework to become breaking news.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@tsukiema_ Spotting everyone else’s biases is always the easy part.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@shevaxgod Hard to win when the buyer also writes the rules.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@xbtnoah Easier to move up when the company keeps adding floors.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@betraidx A lifetime chart hits different when you remember people lived through every dip.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@MadCrash_X The math gets personal the second you call it a loss.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@limalemonnn Knowing what’s enough might be the hardest part of getting rich.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@MadCrash_X Funny how $100 gets smaller when the price tag gets bigger.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@diablomediablo The name on the building became the whole business.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@orvexus The clause sets the deadline. Your cash buffer determines whether you can meet it without selling. Being right about the asset won’t pay the margin call.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

The most dangerous word in 2008 was “tomorrow.”

Wall Street held long-term mortgage assets with money it had to keep borrowing. When lenders stopped renewing those loans, firms had to sell into falling markets, spreading the damage.

That is what makes this story bigger than a handful of winning shorts: a portfolio’s survival depends on who can demand cash, and when.

Who gets to force your next sale?

[Diablo @diablomediablo]

https://t.co/MnzpFn8Pnn

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@quantinth And every successful rollover makes that bet feel safer. Until the morning you need 30 years of cash flows to cover one day of withdrawals.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@hivipilled Exactly. Your time horizon is only as long as your funding lets it be. If someone else can pull the credit tomorrow, they get to decide when your long-term bet ends.

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@RoundtableSpace guess “think harder” isn’t always the budget move

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@paonx_eth agents having to pay their own bills is a wild benchmark

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@codewithimanshu would love to see the trade logs behind that $68 to $750k jump

[Hardov @Hardov__]

@Teka1900 wanna see how this team handles a truly messy dataset