Helix Capital

Thematic Swing Trader & Investor | My Portfolio:

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

$ESTC (Elastic NV) new core position opened.

Thesis:
Price action has made it obvious that the AI hardware/buildout trade is taking a much needed breather. It is my belief now that the market will rotate and look for companies outside of this sector that can leverage AI into top line and margin growth.

This got me looking into software. Software has been beaten down while most of the companies I looked at were still growing revenue and increasing margins. This is just due to the simple fact the market believed that AI would replace packaged software. When in reality AI is nowhere close to replacing enterprise level software.

Once I came to this conclusion I started looking for software companies that have exposure to data management for enterprises. This is when I found Elastic.

Elastic is a software company that builds tools that help organizations search, analyze, and secure large amounts of data in real time. Its technology is used to power website search, application monitoring, cybersecurity, and data analytics across cloud and on-premises environment. Enterprises with large amounts of data cannot just simply upload all of it into an LLM and get answers. That data needs to be organized, formatted, then fed to the LLM. This is where Elastic comes in.

Elastic's product portfolio is centered on the Elastic Search AI Platform, which enables organizations to search, analyze, monitor, and secure data from a single platform. Elasticsearch, is a distributed search and analytics engine that indexes and retrieves structured and unstructured data in real time, supporting everything from website search to AI-powered retrieval and vector search.

On top of the Elasticsearch platform, they also have Kibana. Which provides the visualization and management layer, allowing users to explore data, build interactive dashboards, and investigate operational or security issues. For IT and engineering teams, Elastic Observability delivers comprehensive monitoring of applications and infrastructure through capabilities such as log management, application performance monitoring (APM), distributed tracing, and infrastructure monitoring, helping teams identify and resolve performance issues quickly.

Then finally on the cybersecurity side, Elastic Security combines security information and event management (SIEM), endpoint protection, threat detection, and threat hunting to help organizations detect, investigate, and respond to cyber threats. These capabilities are delivered through Elastic Cloud, the company's fully managed cloud service, which enables customers to deploy and scale Elastic solutions across major cloud providers without managing the underlying infrastructure.

Outside of my fundamental analysis I also love the valuation. It is trading at a 3.5x P/S ratio the lowest P/S ratio since its IPO. Technically on the weekly price broke out and is retesting the 9 and 21 EMA's.

My cost basis is $58.35, I took advantage of that early morning dip this morning.

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

@RepRoKhanna @TrackAIPAC Now do this all by not raising taxes

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

And the government tells you inflation is 3%

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

A 28 Item Grocery Order From Target That Cost $64.50 In 2020 Now Costs $158.30 https://t.co/g8NxbLzH8J

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

All of this and in return the guy gets a used Corolla with 200k miles

[Kait Willett @KaitWillett]

0.03% of unmarried men age 25-35 are 6’ or above, earn 100,000+ per year, and are not considered obese (in the US)

That’s 49,493 of 164,977,341 American men

This is what many women see as the “bare minimum” when looking for a partner

That standard is delusional at BEST

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

@Mr_Derivatives All he had to do was park that 200k in a safe non high beta stock with no leverage and he would’ve been set

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

People are actually insane for thinking a US company will use an open source Chinese model.

For one companies don’t want to risk l their data being exposed in an open source model.

But also the US government isn’t going to allow that. They are already in the process of this.

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

@RichJohnsonNFL So people can’t love America now?

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

@DailyNoud This is going to age like milk

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

Let me guess you bought them in Spring 2026 when they were already up 2x-5x

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.

My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.

In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.

I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that:

- “AI is a bubble”
- “memory/kospi is a bubble”
- “photonics is a bubble”
- “humanoids won’t get anywhere”
- “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta”

And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”.

But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts.

And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery.

I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out.

Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now.

Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

Finally something he has said that I agree with. If Washington does not figure out affordability and fast, we will end up going down the socialist rabbit hole

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: JD Vance warns the U.S. will end up with a “socialist president” if young Americans remain locked out of homeownership & opportunity.

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

@JaguarAnalytics Its actually insane how well the indexes have held up during this

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

$FIG (Figma) just seems like a no brainer here.

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

Just because a momentum name retraced back to its monthly 9 EMA does not mean it can automatically go back to ATH’s

Me personally I’m buying software names that have been beaten down and based out.

$FIG $ESTC $FIVN

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

Anthropic and OpenAI should have IPO’d when they had the chance

Their business model is useless if open source models continue to make this much progress

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Americans now use Chinese AI models more than US-made ones.

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

I’ve said this for the year and it’s why it’s my biggest % holding in my portfolio.

But America’s single biggest disadvantage against China is our power grid. We can’t even generate enough power to keep up with regular household demand.

[Kris Patel 🇺🇸 @KrisPatel99]

The next challenge will comes from Chinese Datacenters in my opinion...

Our biggest advantage was chips but now the Chinese are becoming a lot more self sufficient... What does this mean?

The Chinese hyperscalers will build data centers with 3 things as tailwinds for them...

1. Cheap Power
2. Cheap Hardware like Ram/GPU
3. Cheap Models
4. 0 legislative pushback
5. Government support

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

As usual open source will always be superior to closed source.

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

@DavidSacks Why do we need more data centers? We have 12x the data centers China has.

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

@everytimeicash Closed ser

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

What’s hilarious about this is Texas is bringing tons of solar capacity online.

New power generation can be done responsibly, it’s actually the massive red tape regulations in blue states hurting them

[nic carter @nic_carter]

Lemme tell you what’s gonna happen

Red states will keep adding power and building data centers

Blue states will succumb to idiocy and turn off data centers (they mostly weren’t building them in the first place bc their grids don’t work bc of failed green transitions)

Red states will keep bringing in investment and tax revenue

Blue states will keep spending insane amounts on massive carefare programs (Medicaid based fake jobs programs)

Blue states will default

Red states will be forced to bail them out

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

@zerohedge China a surveillance state has just 449 data centers while the US has 5,427.

We have 10 times the data centers why do we need more?

[Helix Capital @HelixCapitalX]

China a surveillance state has just 449 data centers while the US has 5,427.

We have 10 times the data centers why do we need more?

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

For the first time, a majority of Americans prefer to stop building data centers (Morgan Stanley, Morning Consult)