I think the issue is this is being framed as a “one time tax” when it allows for expansion via 2/3 vote of legislature.
Earlier in the critique of the study, you said “you can’t have both”. That is exactly what the authors of Prop 40 asked for. Marketing value of “one time billionaire tax” and legislative power of continuing it themselves.
Also, as a retroactive asset tax, I can’t imagine billionaires would willingly reside in CA Jan 1, 2027 without knowing whether it would be retroactively applied following a vote next year.
CA has the fourth largest economy by GDP in the world and the highest taxes in the country.
The problem isn’t tax revenue and billionaires paying their share. It’s spending. If you have doubts, ask Gavin why he veto’d the enhanced auditing bills regarding spending on homeless programs.
You should read the short story “The Egg” by Andy Weir.
I think it provides a solid basis for moral interpretations of things like simulation theory.
If we are all one, how do we treat our individual experience of the greater one?
If we are all fleeting, individual instances of a greater consciousness, I am you and you are me. Do you focus on the poorest of the poor and reduce your own suffering? Do you focus on advancing general wellbeing of humanity to the extent you can to reduce your future suffering? Do you optimize your current moment recognizing your only betraying yourself in a different life?
Replace consciousness with simulation, point stands.
@paulsaladinomd The important thing with flying cars is they spark curiosity and wonder.
Engineering should be cool and fun. Rockets and flying cars might not align with what you want the brightest minds to focus on, but they could inspire the next person to take on other hard problems.
@DerekPederson3 Currently, yes. Need/desire, focus, innovation all aren’t there.
But I think we still have a very caveman understanding of the universe. Primarily matter driven. We are just opening the door to an energy based understanding, which is the building blocks of matter.
PCA now leads baseball in:
Homers
Extra-base hits
Total bases
Runs
And on defense,
Outs above average
5-star catches
Fielding run value
Completely and utterly ridiculous
Humans have existed for roughly 300,000 years.
How lucky are we that we get to live on planet Earth at the exact same time as PCA? Truly blessed. #MVPete#Cubs
Excited to share @profound has raised a $180M Series D, co-led by @sequoia and @kleinerperkins.
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AI labs are pushing the frontier in fields like engineering, law, and finance. But marketing, one of the economy's most complex and consequential applications, has received far less attention.
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Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.