Henry Olsen

Senior Fellow, @EPPCdc. Host of Beyond the Polls and Conservative Crossroads podcasts -

[Henry Olsen @henryolsenEPPC]

The latest on Conservative Crossroads: Should conservatives raise taxes? @oren_cass says yes; @GroverNorquist says no. Listen!

https://t.co/ARM2x82l3p

[Henry Olsen @henryolsenEPPC]

@darelmass I don't think they can have that in practice, as the Chancellor needs to be approved by an absolute majority at the outset of the Bundestag. Perhaps some party will back a government without ministries, though.

[Henry Olsen @henryolsenEPPC]

The next German election is over two years away, but on this poll there are only two feasible governments: CDU/SPD/Green/FDP or AfD/CDU.

[Europe Elects @EuropeElects]

Germany, INSA poll:

AfD-ESN: 28%
CDU/CSU-EPP: 21%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 13% (-1)
SPD-S&D: 12%
LINKE-LEFT: 11%
FDP-RE: 5%
BSW-NI: 3% (-1)

+/- vs. 31 July - 03 August 2026

Fieldwork: 03-07 August 2026
Sample size: 1205

➤ https://t.co/obOCVirbpF

[Henry Olsen @henryolsenEPPC]

All of these parties are "non-Netnayahu" although not all are "anti-Netanyahu". If they could run in tandem with other groups in their respective blocs, that would significantly decrease the Netanyahu bloc seat total.

[Israel Elects @israel_elects]

Under 3.25% electoral threshold✂️✂️✂️
🔴Zionist Home: 3%
🟢Balad: 2.1%
🟣Erdan: 1.9%
🟣Blue & White: 1.3%

[Israel Elects @israel_elects]

🔴Opposition bloc: 56 (-2)
🔵Netanyahu Bloc: 53 (+2)
🟢Ra'am & Hadash-Ta'al: 11

Zionist Home falls under the threshold for the first time in 2 weeks

[Henry Olsen @henryolsenEPPC]

I wonder if Caitlin and Sophie just decide they’ve had enough of the WNBA de facto attacking them and go to Europe.

[Clay Travis @ClayTravis]

Caitlin Clark declined to say who she voted for in the 2024 election. Now she doesn’t want to weigh on men in women’s sports. Some are mad at her, but I get it. She’s clearly following Michael Jordan’s path, focus on basketball excellence not politics.

[lumasimms @lumasimmsEPPC]

My colleague @henryolsenEPPC talking about the healthiness of civil debates and putting human dignity at the center of the American experiment.

[Henry Olsen @henryolsenEPPC]

@MichaelRStrain Thanks!

[Michael R. Strain @MichaelRStrain]

"Highly ideological candidates in both parties tend to do best in low-turnout races, not record ones. Yet time and again in recent cycles, progressive leftists have shown they can compete in sharply contested, high-turnout primaries, even when they are massively outspent. New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani did it, and now El-Sayed has matched him. No serious Democratic strategist can say that there’s some slumbering Democratic majority that just needs to be awakened to hold back the insurgency at the gate."

@henryolsenEPPC is one of the sharpest election analysts in the business. https://t.co/WIDXZ3v8gx

[Kyle Melinn @melinnky]

20% of all registered Michigan voters cast ballots in Dem primary. That’s the largest percentage for either party since at least 1998. By a lot.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: The Israeli military has directly informed CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper that Israel does not need approval or support from the US to wage war against Iran, adding "we are currently making preparations to start the war," per Israeli Channel 13.

Israel is preparing for a unilateral strike on Iran as it concludes the US is no longer willing to finish the war on its terms.

Iran has previously threatened to strike Israel's Haifa oil refinery and Tel Aviv directly as soon as Israel strikes Iran again, with Iran having broken the air defense layer in Jordan and other Arab countries in daily attacks over the last few weeks allowing it to strike Israel more effectively, and with Israel's own interceptor stocks now critically low leaving it more vulnerable.

[CasualtiesOfTheDay @Ayei_Eloheichem]

Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif on Saturday told a news outlet in his country that “Israel is a threat to the entire Muslim world,” and called for “a united military front” against it.
https://t.co/BonVJ2WElV

[Amir Daftari @AnalyseDis]

My #YouGov MRP with my colleague Paul Smith for Common Threads, fielded 16 Jun–10 Jul 2026: 4,003 Vic voters. Coalition 26%, ON 24%, Labor 23%, Greens 13%, Others 14%. Seats: Coalition 39 (6 short of majority), Labor 29, ON 17. Nats take Bendigo East; Libs Niddrie. MoE ±1.8%.

[Peter Laffin @petermlaffin]

Greatly enjoyed speaking with Henry Olsen (@henryolsenEPPC) about his podcast Conservative Crossroads, his view on the Right's internal divisions, and what it will take to unite the GOP by 2028:

https://t.co/rHR90pHYNo

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

HAWAII TURNOUT

1. Remained heavily Democratic (no surprise): 82% of major ballots (77% in 2022, 88% in 2018)
2. 97% voted by mail. The 3% who voted in person were plurality Republican
3. Last night's ballot drop is the vast majority of the eventual total vote.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Andy Burnham ends his 3rd week as Prime Minister with a 1.3% lead in the polling average:

🌹 LAB: 25.6% - 18 month high
➡️ RFM: 24.3% - 19 month low
🌳 CON: 19.6%
🌍 GRN: 11.3% - 10 month low
🔶 LDM: 10.7% - post GE low
◼️ RES: 2.9%

https://t.co/NoOfCs0erW

[RRH Elections @RRHElections]

Tuesday there are primaries in 6 states: MN, WI, CT, VT, AL (House), and SC (Senate) - We preview all the major contests here: https://t.co/Hx0HXDPYSo

[Fox News Politics @foxnewspolitics]

HOLDING FIRM: Netanyahu rejects Trump's Board of Peace 15-point Gaza proposal outright, declaring the IDF will not withdraw until Hamas surrenders every weapon it has — heavy, light, all of it.

The Israeli prime minister is insisting "genuine disarmament, not fictitious disarmament" is the only acceptable precondition for withdrawal. Hamas says it expects mediators to "press Netanyahu and his government to adhere to the roadmap" agreed upon in Cairo 10 days ago.

[The Washington Post @washingtonpost]

Breaking news: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a U.S.-backed plan for Hamas to lay down its weapons in Gaza in exchange for an eventual Israeli withdrawal from the territory. https://t.co/5j8jY1dsGU