I love how Humans go to bed at night, fall into an infinite landscape of potential experience where linearity collapses and the rules of physics completely melt away...
And then we just wake up and go about our day like it's nothing.
Usually our business starts to pick up about a quarter or two so before the market really turns around.
Has been like this since 2020.
We get this unique insight through the market's desire to invest in media and marketing for protocols and new launches.
We see it on the ground day in and day out.
This is happening right now in our business. My "bear market is nearly finished" indicator is starting to go off.
Position accordingly.
What’s really weird to me about the $MSTR blow up FUD is that it’s as transparently and verifiably false as any of the other FUD that gets amplified at $BTC bear market bottoms - energy use, transaction throughput, quantum risk - but many of the same people that would call these out as obvious attempts to shake out weak hands at the bottom are going full tilt on $MSTR FUD.
MSTR is designed to amplify Bitcoin volatility. To the upside and the downside. You either believe in it or you don’t. And if you don’t nobody is making you invest in the stock or its prefs. If you do you are opting into a roller coaster and you better position size, try to buy as low as you can, and be ready to ride it both ways.
But it’s not at any imminent risk of insolvency, and if BTC went low enough for that to happen, BTC has kind of already failed as an investable asset.
You’re talking 20,000s or lower on a sustained basis before there’s any real insolvency issues.
I’m sorry to say, but if we retrace to 2017-levels - post LUNA/3AC blow-up levels - and THEN MSTR blows up and dumps 850,000 BTC nobody is touching this asset for a decade.
You can say goodbye to any serious Wall Street exposure. People will forever see it as too toxic to build anything on and the monetization phase is done. Narrative fully cooked.
There are people who are relentless bitcoin cheerleaders who seem to want Saylor to fail like he’s some kind of anti Bitcoin force that needs to be disposed of, despite the fact that he’s been the most relentless, vocal, and transparent Bitcoin advocate for 6 years, and has done more for wall st and corporate adoption that anyone else by a wide margin. He’s the one who actually tried to build something on Bitcoin and integrate it into global finance - something more than just talking about how great it is on a podcast.
$MSTR is constructed in such a way that in order for him to fail, it would require so much capital destruction that everything you want Bitcoin to be will be dead for a decade - if not forever. Forget about everything else in crypto, which would be beyond cooked.
Like oh great, enjoy your unstoppable freedom money that lost 90% of its value. What the fuck are you going to buy with it?
If you’re amplifying FUD and cheerleading for Saylor to fail, you’re cheerleading for Bitcoin to fail, and I don’t consider you an ally.
People should own real bitcoin.
Some types of entity can't, for them bitcoin proxies make sense.
I don't think MSTR is at any risk, they have 850K BTC & 1B+ of cash, and preferred have no rights.
Like in previous cycles, cheering for ppl to get rekt is just retarded.
unless they are shitcoiners 🤣
Something good is happening at this World Cup.
The Scots turned up. The English turned up. The Norwegians turned up. They sang their songs, got stuck in, and the Americans loved them for it. Glasgow and Boston are getting twinned off the back of it.
For 30 years we’ve been told to view the US as some sort of Great Satan — all imperialism and orange-man clichés. Not everyone buys it of course, but enough do.
And then Europeans actually go, and find a place that feels familiar. Makes sense to them. A bit richer, a bit further ahead, but recognisably ours. Settled by Europeans, still deeply European in its bones.
There’s a gathering-of-the-clans feeling to it. Old neighbours discovering they still like the same songs, the same drink, the same daft humour, and genuinely enjoying each other’s company.
None of it’s a surprise, really. It’s just been buried under so much politics that we forgot we were allowed to enjoy it.
Good to be reminded.
The real luxuries in life are
time
health
a quiet mind
slow mornings
ability to travel
rest without guilt
a good night's sleep
calm and "boring" days
meaningful conversations
home-cooked meals
people you love
people who love you back
If I got laid off tomorrow & had to replace my salary asap, here’s exactly what I’d do:
1. Go to Instagram and start a fresh account. Use a spare email. No one has to know.
@BitcoinErrorLog there are thousands of MSTR shareholders, who via ownership of MSTR are owners of BTC. I get that MSTR is centralised in terms of custody of BTC, but not ownership.
Yes, agreed.
If sentiment around Strategy keeps nuking, the obvious move is to raise a chunky slug of USD and pre-fund the divi stack deep into the next cycle. That basically kills the STRC fear...
Then, if BTC takes a serious run at new ATHs in ’28, buy back the prefs. But greed is a hellava drug.
May I ask - what is your invalidation point on this view? Say Saylor raises 3bn in USD to cover divi's going out 3 years or whatever the run rate is...at what point do we say, actually this isn't a credible problem or yes, this is a problem, but one that could continue for years and years?