HeyHeyHayden

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy The problem as always are the double standards. If you were to apply the same criteria to Ukraine then all pro-Ukrainian mappers would need to remove over 1000km2 in territory across the front. Numerous areas they only have reach or presence in are claimed as control.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy The €90 billion loan was supposed to cover 2026 and 2027. Now they need another €70 billion on top of individual country aid packages (tens of billions), plus revenues are overstated and Ukraine always overspends...

It is becoming too difficult to finance Ukraine.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy An enormous number of bots are pushing a narrative around Russian bot activity disappearing, which is incredibly ironic.

No change has actually happened, but as with all these campaigns the goal is to flood the information space with so much rubbish that it becomes the 'truth'.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy So trying to dig Russia out this time when they have vastly more support and a far better foundation will be significantly harder. Ukraine would need to build up a larger force to do so, but all are currently engaged in fighting on secondary or tertiary fronts...

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy I'll add that the 2025 counterattacks were hamstrung by Ukraine's own defence lines, which meant that despite facing a Russian force with no vehicles, no nearby drone operators and low support the significantly larger Ukrainian grouping took months to drive them back at high cost

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy Leaving the summary aside, Thorkill as always uses Creamy Caprice for the comparison rather than a proper Russian mapper. They only show geolocations they do and aren't meant to be compared to non-geolocation mappers, but Thorkill does it anyway to skew discussions.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@Thorkill65 @SSchmoov49885 Any of the major Russian mappers if you wanted a Russian version of DS. Creamy Caprice is a geolocation mapper only and only shows ones they have done, so their maps look bizarre on purpose. You should be using something like Divgen or Z committee for an equivalent comparison

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy I think it'll depend on them expanding the width. Not a lot of cover on the route from Shakhove up to Torets'ke to pressure Druzhkivka from that side, but if they can take Zolotyi Kolodyaz and surrounding villages they will have a lot more to work with.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@AnankeGroup @DelwinStrategy It took 6+ months for the EU to agree on the 90 Billion € loan, which was originally going to be 140 Billion €. That was supposed to last Ukraine until the end of 2027 (with other individual country contributions), but already they are back for more.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy @Damien94475559 If I'm understanding the various reports and figures correctly Ukraine does not even tally up individual Geran strikes (such as on gas stations) nor ones on areas close to the front line, only the ones on larger facilities or in the bigger waves.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy I agree. The problem as I see it is that Ukraine does not know when to call it quits with these counteroffensives. They make decent gains initially but overcommit and get bogged down in costly fighting for minimal advances.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@ShaunAr38091569 @DelwinStrategy They found an area where Russia had rather thin lines and exploited it. That part is fine, but the issue is they committed to the counteroffensive for far longer than they should have, tying down resources that could have been better utilised elsewhere.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy Ukraine has also retaken a fraction of what Russia originally captured on these same fronts in the same time period. It is not a viable strategy for the Ukrainians to throw this many units into a counteroffensive to achieve worse results than the Russians did with fewer soldiers.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy Russia refusing to take the bait and not reinforcing this front is the most notable element of this operation. They have maintained their offensives on other fronts and have let the Ukrainians crash into this tertiary area for minimal gains despite high investment.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@Thorkill65 The Russians seem to be coming out of the woodworks with a lot more flag videos in response, so their DRG penetration is clearly greater than Ukraine's.

The flag game is more embarrassing for Deepstate as they denied every losing control of these villages in the first place.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy One thing that stands out is the refusal to apply the same logic to Ukrainian trucks being hit or even acknowledging them at all. We've seen many truck parking lots and logistics depots destroyed over the same time period, but no consideration for the logistical impact on Ukraine

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy I agree that the claimed numbers are inflated, as they assume every attempt is a successfully destroyed vehicle, ignoring footage that cuts off early, ones that fail to detonate, misses and ones that do minimal damage.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy @Thorkill65 On the other hand the decision to stay meant committing even more resources to the failed operation in an attempt to salvage some kind of victory by pinning Russia down. That didn't work and ended up pinning Ukraine's best down, directly leading to large Russian gains in Donetsk.

[HeyHeyHayden @HeyHeyHayd78226]

@DelwinStrategy @Thorkill65 There was no way for Kursk to be a 'victory' once they made the decision to launch the operation. Pulling out in the first few weeks would have meant they wasted an enormous amount of men and material for nothing whilst creating an opening in Donetsk that Russia exploited.