Highwater Cap

Looking for mispriced opportunities. Semis, AI infrastructure, defense. YouTube: High Water Investing

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

@bytelee_trade That translation is exactly what I am watching. The backlog gives visibility, but fixed price work only helps if execution stays clean and costs do not creep. The cash flow line will tell us before anything else does.

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

🧵 Stock thesis #40: Kratos just posted the strongest quarter in its history, $471.8M in revenue, up 35.7%, with a record $2.650B backlog. The stock is down roughly 73% from its high. That's $KTOS.

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

@realACollins Yes, and the calls get ugly fast because the guide was built on those orders landing on time. Demand can stay strong and the quarter can still miss if the parts show up late.

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

@realACollins In the near term the buyers do, because they need the volume now and there is no spare supply to bargain with. Over time it gets passed through or it slows the ramp, and that timing gap is where it gets messy.

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

@qualityequities That gap is the whole test. Interest at that run rate is fine if operating income keeps climbing toward it, but if it stalls the leverage starts to set the story instead of the backlog.

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

以上是我的个人研究分享，不是投资建议，做决定前请自己做功课。完整版研报：https://t.co/RX6iXSXlgU。关注 @HighwaterCap，我每天深挖一家被市场错价的公司。

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

🧵 个股研报#40：Kratos 刚刚交出史上最强的一个季度：营收 4.72 亿美元，同比增长 35.7%，在手订单创纪录 26.50 亿美元。而股价比高点低约 73%。这就是平价量产的军火商（$KTOS）。

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

市场在为 2 月稀释的头条定价，订单簿描述的是平价量产的军火商。我做多 robinhood:0x7fd06a4d81ccfa3f351394e144d5191874c31313

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

The Treasury Secretary moved into military housing after Iranian threats! Scott Bessent is the man running the economic pressure campaign on Tehran, and now he needs military protection to do it. That is how personal this standoff just got.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

US TREASURY SECRETARY MOVED TO MILITARY HOUSING AFTER IRANIAN THREATS

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been relocated to temporary military housing following threats from Iran, according to Bloomberg.

Bessent is leading Washington's economic pressure campaign against Tehran, including sweeping sanctions targeting Iranian oil shipments, banks and trade networks.

The nature of the threats remains undisclosed.

The move comes as Trump pursues renewed diplomacy with Iran while maintaining the US naval blockade and economic sanctions.

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

Kushner and Witkoff face to face with Putin in Moscow on Thursday! After nine months of silence, the Abu Dhabi talks just got a concrete next step. A real security deal reprices European defense and energy fast, so is this finally the one?

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ENVOYS JARED KUSHNER AND STEVE WITKOFF WILL MEET WITH RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN IN MOSCOW ON THURSDAY- AXIOS

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

Hormuz stays closed until the Leader himself says otherwise! That is Tehran's top brass shutting the door on the talk hopes, with Brent already settling up at $92.76. How much risk premium can the market keep stripping out of oil?

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN'S BRIGADIER GENERAL HEYDARI: WE HAVE CLOSED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND WE WILL NOT OPEN IT EXCEPT BY THE ORDER OF THE LEADER OF THE REVOLUTION - ISNA

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

@LenardReads 6850亿营收，相当于去年150倍，这个预测本身就是给IPO定价背书。高盛是主承销之一，数字要往大里说才撑得住估值。真正值得看的是那4000亿算力开支，Anthropic一家2030年就要烧这么多，半导体和电力链的订单能见度一下就拉长了

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

@laochenusa 尾盘这个结构确实不好看，半导体跑输大盘，CRWV在60附近反复磨，负gamma一放大就容易被动踩踏。不过期权负流在收窄，指数还没加速，暂时更像获利盘在兑现而不是趋势反转，明天开盘半小时能不能收回很关键

[Highwater Cap @HighwaterCap]

@vigery 今天这种涨法，纳指没破上周四那个位置确实得留个心眼。AI股普涨但超大厂在回调，说明资金在链内轮动，还没到全面risk on。仓位重的减一点没毛病，我更想看明天能不能放量站上去，站不上去就还是震荡市