Dr. HODL

Diagnosing stock opportunities & prescribing financial market strategies | Long-term hodler & analyst

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

$SPCX at a $3 trillion valuation? At todays earnings it would take 166 years of the same profits just to make that price make sense. Just the numbers right now.

$TSLA is sitting at 370x earnings. That is not a normal stock. To get down to a normal 36x P/E without the price crashing they need 10 times current earnings. A 930% jump in profits.

$TSLA holds around 13% of the global EV market. So they will have to sell 130% of the entire worlds EV demand. Very easy right? Just capture more than the whole market exists today.

Some will say the EV market is small now and it will grow so no problem. But $TSLA is already losing market share to $BYD and other Chinese manufacturers. What happens when $TM $F $MBG $BMW and the rest go full EV? The pie gets bigger but $TSLA share of it shrinks even more.

Compare that to traditional automakers like $GM $F or $TM. They trade at normal multiples around 5x to 15x earnings. They sell millions of cars with real margins but the market does not price them like they will own the planet.

Some of you will say well $TSLA is not a car company it is a tech company. Fine. Look at actual tech companies. $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL and others usually trade around 30x to 40x earnings. Even $NVDA sits far below 370x. $TSLA gets valued as if it will dominate cars energy AI robots and everything else with perfect execution and super high margins. Most real companies never get close.

This is just like the late Dotcom days but with better memes. Back then it was all about eyeballs and the internet will fix everything. Companies got valued like perfection was guaranteed and competition did not matter. Pets dot com says hi.

The gap between real cash flows today and the perfect future needed for these prices is not smart optimism. It is funny. Pure comedy. The whole market is hooked on the same story why check boring stuff like actual profits when you can bet on The Future forever?

Reality usually shows up with the bill eventually.

$TSLA $SPCX $GM $F $TM $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $NVDA $MBG $BYD #TSLA #SpaceX #StockMarket #Valuation #Dotcom #Investing

[Yuto 🇯🇵 @yutokanzakireal]

イランは、米国との戦争に勝つための戦略の一環として、日本が依存する石油の流れを妨害する意図があるように見える。
東京は、日本のエネルギー安全保障が巻き添え被害となることを許さない。
トランプ政権との間で重要なエネルギー安全保障取引が行われた。
すべてのチャネルが利用されると予想される。日本のエネルギー需要を確保するための、オフレコで行われる取引も含めて。

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

@elonmusk really has everyone convinced that he is arguing with an intern from https://t.co/XOcj9SOHDN

A company he owns btw. Nice marketing

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

@AnthropicAI fable 5.1 being half the token cost of opus 5 is a completely fabricated lie. Either fix the token usage or don't claim it's 50% less token usage than opus 5. It drained my max subscription in like 3 prompts that were for barely editing some text on a website.

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

@alphaticaio Tldr is what spy moving up sooner than later?

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

So pay $16billion in fines for harming children and stock goes up? Make it make sense

$META

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Meta stock, $META, surges over +5% after the company agrees to pay up to $16.7 billion to settle claims that Facebook and Instagram harmed children.

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

@jimcramer Listen just predict that nvda will crash. We need the win Jimmy

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

@Invest_Brandon Now how much would nvda be up if it was up 100%+? Do you see the problem with your argument. Can't compare the amd market cap to Nvidia market cap and expect same % gainsm

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

$nvda earnings on August 26th. Prepare for takeoff

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

@michaeljburry So what do we short and what do we long?

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

@HopiumPapi You're already part of the cabal Stevens. You want another?

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

Once the bubble pops there will be devastating consequences.

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

I was about a week off.

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

We will likely see $spy hit ath in about 30 days.

[Yuto 🇯🇵 @yutokanzakireal]

日本銀行は身動きが取れず、

日本銀行は最悪のシナリオについて議論した。

ドルの暴落、あるいは基軸通貨としての地位の喪失は、世界恐慌をはるかに凌駕する事態を引き起こす可能性がある。

日本と米国は、現在の体制を何としても守ろうとするだろう。

これから新たな秩序が生まれるかもしれないが、その移行は苦痛を伴うものとなるだろう。

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

Leave it to ken Griffin and citadel to screw this kid over on the week of his wedding.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

The best-performing fund of 2026 just got wiped out by its own leverage.

Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund just had one of the fastest blowups in hedge fund history. Up 439% this year on aggressive AI bets, it hit $45 billion in assets, then lost the entire public portfolio in weeks.

Here's what made him famous. He went long AI hardware like SK Hynix, the chipmaker, and shorted software stocks like Adobe. Chips up, software down. The trade of the year.

But he wasn't just using his own money. He borrowed roughly 4x his capital to size the bets up. Leverage is great when you're right. It turns brutal the moment you're wrong.

Mid-July, everything flipped at once. His chip stocks fell over 30% in two weeks. His Adobe short backfired, the stock rose instead of falling. He was losing on both sides of the book at the same time.

On July 24, he wrote to investors calling the crash a buying opportunity and asked for fresh capital. The money never came in time.

Then, on July 28, Bloomberg reported that Citadel Securities was calling for a surprise Fed rate hike, a move markets hadn't priced in. Panic hit. AI stocks, already down 30%, fell even harder.

July 30, Thursday morning. All three of his prime brokers, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan, issued margin calls on the same morning. He had nothing left to negotiate with.

That same day, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ken Griffin's Citadel had bought his entire stock portfolio, reportedly at a steep discount.

Ken Griffin's market-making arm called the rate shock. Days later, Ken Griffin's hedge fund walked away with the assets once the fire sale arrived.

No one has proven intent. But the timing is hard to ignore.

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

Apparently Cathy Wood has loaded $SPCX this is the strongest sell and short signal, secondly only to inverse Cramer.

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

@AnthropicAI have really crippled Claude with so many guardrails.

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

@BitmanTW @ProjectVEXai did

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

Robinhood Chain mainnet launched just over a week ago. An Arbitrum-based L2 focused on tokenized stocks, RWAs, and bridging TradFi with onchain DeFi.

With gas subsidies, partner incentives, and early ecosystem activity, there's still time for meaningful rewards to early adopters and liquidity providers.
Worth monitoring closely in crypto infra.

Thoughts?

$HOOD #RobinhoodChain

[Dr. HODL @HodlThesis]

$CASHCAT will likely hit billions in Mc as the first major meme on $HOOD

[Barchart @Barchart]

Hedge Funds have now built the largest Japanese Yen short position since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 🚨 Dear God 🤯