Chris Parker

Senior Analyst @theCCCuk - UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Hydrologist and climate scientist. Opinions my own.

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

12 month running average surface temperature now 1.6°C above the historical baseline!

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

The 12 month running average surface air temperature now up to 1.57°C relative to the historical baseline (1900-1850).

Reminder: this does not mean the Paris target has been exceeded however, it does mean that we are getting closer.

data: https://t.co/9CUR7mLZoU

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

@herdyshepherd1 The first morning my parents left my sister and I on the farm for the first time we had to deal with a prolapsing cow. Had to get the vet and the neighbouring farmer to help. Had to lift the cow up by it's back legs on the front end loader to get the calf bed back in. Fun times!

[Prof Richard Betts @richardabetts]

Our ambitious experiment in the Amazon rainforest - ⁦@amazonface⁩

6 rings of towers: 3 will keep CO2 levels within them high so we can study how rainforest trees respond. eg. does growth keep increasing at high CO2?

Crucial knowledge for calculating future carbon budgets

[David Joffe @david_joffe]

NEW REPORT by @RAEngNews out today, on what delivering on the 2030 clean power mission will mean in practice.

https://t.co/2QqIuPadpo

The work was co-chaired by Sir (now Lord) Patrick Vallance and Dr Simon Harrison and delivered by a small team.

🧵on its key findings

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

@micefearboggis Good question. I can't think of a way to do it with observation and I am not convinced climate models show the range of observed variance. My initial view is too simplistic as @RSarava describes.
https://t.co/ULyH8Nu9bA

[R. Saravanan (sarava.net) @RSarava]

@HyperHydr0 @micefearboggis The simple E vs T argument applies to thermodynamic systems in equilibrium (statistical mechanics). Earth's climate is not an equilibrium system. A bigger effect for is the exponential increase in moisture with T, which can amplify variability through latent heat release.

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

@micefearboggis Hypothesis: more energy in the system is leading to an increase in variance. The assumption that internal variability will remain constant in a warming climate is incorrect IMO.

[Climate Change Committee @theCCCuk]

Our annual Progress Report is out today. The country’s 2030 target is at risk. It’s not too late to get back on track but now the Government needs to take urgent action in the next year.

Let’s take a closer look at the analysis ->🧵

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

Good to see global temperatures finally starting to fall. It will be interesting to see how temps respond to the next La Nina.

[Zeke Hausfather @hausfath]

Global temperatures have finally started falling over the past few weeks, with the first week of July only 1.35C above preindustrial levels. Weather models expect a continued decline over the next seven days.

[Climate Change Committee @theCCCuk]

In 2026, the CCC will advise the UK on the risks from climate change and the potential for adaptation to address them. We have now started the analytical work that will underpin this advice. https://t.co/iMh3NcpEEm

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

@LeonSimons8 I don't think it will quite reach 1.7°C. Currently ~1.62°C and the rate of increase has slowed considerably in recent weeks. My best guesstimate is that it will top out ~1.65°C.

[Climate Change Committee @theCCCuk]

This week Dr James Richardson started in the role of Acting Chief Executive here at the CCC.

Until Monday, James has been the Chief Analyst for the organisation. He is now posting from @ChiefExecCCC.

Follow him for future updates and insights on our work.

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

@al_chisholm @joe_crowley @FT From experience, I would be extremely surprised if any of the water companies had complete network maps.

[Copernicus ECMWF @CopernicusECMWF]

🌍🔬 Today, #CopernicusClimate and @WMO release the 2023 #ESOTC report. It details climate conditions, key events, their impacts, and discusses climate policy and action with a focus on human health.

Read the full report here 👉 https://t.co/eySbK69vJk

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

@Gutsick_Gibbon Tucker: "It's still a theory" 🤣

It is not possible to have a reasoned debate with someone who doesn't, willfully or otherwise, understand the meaning of words.

[Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak]

'It's set us back' what the boss of the climate change watchdog really thinks of Rishi Sunak changing tack on net zero - watch @ChiefExecCCC here on PM and tomorrow on protests, and politicians' 'collective fear' #bbclaurak

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

@RARohde @LeonSimons8 @BerkeleyEarth The temperature spike in the 1877/78 is quite something. How confident are we in the temperature estimates for that period? I believe it coincided with a record breaking El Nino (1877/78), record IOD (1877) and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878).

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

@LeonSimons8 @RARohde @BerkeleyEarth I very much doubt it will reach 1.7°C, at least not in ERA5, temps are starting to tail off and you would need consistent anomalies above 1.7°C for the next few months. The year to date is at 1.69°C and temperature anomalies are now starting to slowly fall.

[Uni of Reading @UniofReading]

Sorry to rain on your parade @Telegraph

1. We haven't issued a denial
2. We aren't cloud seeding in UAE
3. Our weather and climate scientists are providing evidence-based comments to explain what happened
4. Read more from them at https://t.co/i1JpOMXu9t
5. Jog on

[Erich Fischer @erichfischer]

Is the ridiculous disinformation campaign around "cloud seeding causing Dubai floods" yet another note of caution for SRM? Even without any scientific evidence anything can be blamed for causing disasters elsewhere. Could become a strategy to distract from disaster mismanagement.

[Chris Parker @HyperHydr0]

@HayleyJFowler @AlistairCFord @baddeo I have a copy on pre-order. I think it is due for release sometime in May.