Indrajit Dasgupta

Dollar-Oil, Cricket and Music

[Hardeep Singh Puri @HardeepSPuri]

Our states are the core of India’s energy transformation and transition.
In the true spirit of cooperative federalism under the visionary leadership of PM Sh @narendramodi Ji, I was very happy to discuss the opportunities in the energy sector in their respective states with ministers and senior public servants from 22 states & UTs during ‘Urja Manthan’ at #UrjaVarta2025 in Bharat Mandapam today.
In the last five years, India has been one of the largest contributors (16%) to the global increase in oil demand. We are expected to contribute almost 25% of the incremental global energy demand through 2045. Our demand is not just large - it is structured, predictable, and responsible.
@myogiadityanath @Dev_Fadnavis @Bhupendrapbjp @NayabSainiBJP @NitishKumar @gupta_rekha @himantabiswa @PemaKhanduBJP @pushkardhami @MohanMOdisha @vishnudsai @DrMohanYadav51 @BhajanLalBjp @LGov_Puducherry
@Andaman_Admin

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHART OF THE DAY: The storage withdrawal season has started for the European gas market. The last few days have witnessed seasonally large withdrawals.

In August, I warned in this @Opinion column how "enough" gas inventories could still be insufficient: https://t.co/PCsC6n2nIh

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

Forget Peak Oil Demand: A Thirst for Barrels Puts $100 in View

China’s consumption is soaring as Covid restrictions ease

Global oil demand heads for a record despite energy transition

#oott https://t.co/AMjf49yAId

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices for Asia and Europe for April

State oil producer Aramco signals bullishness with price hikes

CEO Amin Nasser said last week demand in China’s ‘very strong’

#oott
https://t.co/TOvySxdBeE

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

With great fanfare, the world agreed at the #COP26 climate change summit in 2021 to "phase-out [...] inefficient fossil fuel subsidies"

A year later, spending in fossil fuel consumption subsidies climbed to a record high of more than $1 trillion, according to new @IEA estimates

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

U.S. to sell 26 million barrels of strategic reserve oil mandated by Congress #oott https://t.co/ur1q5b3tt3

[Open Square Capital @OpenSquareCap]

Update from Goldman on oil, expects RU produx'n to fall by 570K bpd in March-June period. Resilience so far thanks to India's higher imports, and effective price vs. quoted price narrowing. Recent widening portends less revenue/profits for producers. #oil #COM #OOTT #EFT

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

If you think Russia's production cut will lift oil prices, think again. The OPEC+ production cut last November was bigger and failed to lift oil prices, so there's no chance this production cut will do anything. The global recession dynamic is just too powerful. Demand is weak...

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

OIL MARKET: Goldman Sachs argues that the "effective price paid for Russian oil appears significantly greater than the quoted price assessments"

(effective price in blue; quoted price in red) #OOTT

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

FULL STORY: Russia said it will cut oil output by 500,000 barrels a day next month, following through on a threat to retaliate against western sanctions and sending oil prices sharply higher | #OOTT https://t.co/l0bbDOqWpA

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

A couple of comments on the BP's energy outlook:

1) BP didn't disclose its price assumptions (I did ask), which is frustrating and makes analyzing the report impossible.

2) the majority of the drop in energy demand (and so fossil fuels) is due to BP predicting much lower GDP.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHART OF THE DAY: New York harbor jet-fuel price (expressed in $ per barrel). Below the all-time high set last year, but rapidly climbing toward $250 a barrel. US jet-fuel inventories are precariously low.

For more on oil refining margins: https://t.co/5gz0Qemf1H #OOTT @Opinion

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

Brent's forward curve is now back in backwardation even at the front (in USD/bbl) #oott

[Valerie Tytel @ValerieTytel]

Taking from @JavierBlas: “US has just 106 million barrels of diesel stockpiles. Last time inventories were that low in mid-October was in 1951. Inventories should be 30% higher this time of the year.” Fed have another wave of energy-led inflation coming? https://t.co/HURQmUg2oH

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

The UK government has admitted it does NOT have the money to subsidize energy consumption for everyone beyond 6 months. From April 2023 onward, many voters will feel the pain of high gas / electricity prices.

It may be local politics, but it has implications for Ukraine.

[Patricia A Hemsworth @phemsworth]

#Diesel stocks here continue to drop, diesel exports down from last week but still at 1.3 mbpd. Total refinery workers in France are still striking and HO cracks and spreads are off the charts. 82.40 on the X crack spread and X trades to a 40 cent premium to Z. #OOTT

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Core U.S. inflation comes in hotter than expected, at the highest levels since 1982. Stocks and bonds tank.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

OIL MARKET: Another **huge** weekly release from the SPR, injecting ~7.7m barrels into the market last week (or ~1.1m b/d), according to DoE. If my data is correct, last week saw the 3rd largest SPR oil weekly release ever, only behind two individual weeks in Aug and Sep | #OOTT

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

As Joe Biden mulls his response to Saudi Arabia, two reminders from my @opinion column:

1) the world consumes ~100m b/d, and OPEC+ pumps >60% of them

2) for first time in recent history, the West doesn’t have an able-to-deliver friend inside the cartel

https://t.co/m3Uzn3MppL

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

IMF: "The geopolitical re-alignment of energy supplies in the wake of Russia’s war against Ukraine is **broad and permanent**. Winter 2022 will be challenging for Europe, but **winter 2023 will likely be worse**"