Jay O'Neil

Old Grain Trader. World Traveler, Wine Enthusiast, Emeritus Marketing Economist at IGP-KSU and International Consultant.

[Jay O'Neil @IGPJay]

And, the PCA is no longer posting, or stating the daily booking slot auction prices and telling vessel owners not to share that information. Things are getting concerning down there.

[The Lincoln Project @ProjectLincoln]

Trump's Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins: "If we have a big screwworm infestation—which we will not, we're on top of it..."

The screwworm has returned to the US after 60 years after Trump and DOGE eliminated a program to contain the flesh-eating parasite.

[Dow @mark_dow]

Trump has won this war 7 times.

He’s negotiated a peace settlement 12 times.

And he’s opened the Strait of Hormuz at least 4 times.

What more do you want from him?

[Jay O'Neil @IGPJay]

@sanegrain @bl_ag_inc No, not really. More a case of everyone needs something to do each day. And many like to be productive rather than sit on the porch.🥸

[Jay O'Neil @IGPJay]

@sanegrain Hope it came with a strong person attached to the handle.

[Jay O'Neil @IGPJay]

@mercoglianos Sal, As you know, it takes a will, a plan and a budget. At the moment the U.S. lacks all three and is engaged only in talk.

[Jay O'Neil @IGPJay]

@sanegrain So, do the guy at the elevator tell you that you are full of Bologna ?🤠

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran warns the US-Iran agreement "will be completely cancelled" due to ongoing US obstruction on clauses including the release of Iran's $100 billion of frozen assets, with the US now trying to link them to nuclear concessions which Iran rejects, per Tasnim.

The White House is now backing away from yesterday's "largely negotiated" claim, conceding the deal "could still fall apart," per senior US officials.

Trump himself walked back urgency on Truth Social from yesterdays "deal coming shortly" to now stating "time is on our side" and saying the blockade "will remain in full force," which Iran also says needs to be lifted in order sign any agreement.

[BreakWave @DryBulkETF]

This will end up being an April 7 agreement framework with longer duration… 🦵🥫

[Dwayne Neal🇺🇸 @dwayneneal98]

@MikeLevin @versum_proud

[Mike Levin @MikeLevin]

This New York Times piece is worth your time. Here’s what is happening, as simply as I can put it.

Back in January, Trump sued the IRS, an agency he controls, demanding $10 billion over the leak of his tax returns a number of years ago.

IRS lawyers did their jobs. They wrote a memo laying out the defenses that could beat the suit, including the fact that Trump filed too late. His own lawyer was in court when the leaker pleaded guilty in October 2023, more than two years before Trump sued.

The Justice Department never showed up to court. Never argued back. Never used the defenses sitting on their desk.

The judge got suspicious and ordered both sides to explain whether they were actually opposing each other or just colluding. The day before that brief was due, Trump dropped the suit.

Same day, his Justice Department announced a $1.776 billion taxpayer-funded “anti-weaponization fund.” 

Trump gets a formal apology. The IRS agrees to drop any audits of him and his family, even though a 2024 Times report found a loss in an ongoing audit could cost him over $100 million.

The acting Attorney General, Trump’s former criminal defense attorney, picks the five commissioners who decide who gets paid. Trump can fire any of them. Proud Boys and Oath Keepers are not ruled out.

This is the most corrupt thing I’ve ever seen from an American president.

Where in the hell are my Republican colleagues?

https://t.co/La0nlLuz1r

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Iran’s newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority has announced a new nominal area of control for the Strait of Hormuz. Per the release, Iran is now claiming that entry and exit points from the Arabian Gulf/Gulf of Oman into the strait are under the jurisdiction of their armed forces. This seemingly includes areas in the sovereign waters of other nations. Iran still maintains that their toll framework for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is in effect and must be adhered to in order for commercial vessels to avoid being targeted.

[Jay O'Neil @IGPJay]

@sanegrain I tend to turn cars over every ten years.

[BreakWave @DryBulkETF]

In 2008, at the peak orderbook, there were 257 VLCCs on order. We have now surpass that, pushing towards 260 VLCCs on order...
In 2008, there were ~500 VLCCs around. We will soon have more than 1,000 VLCCs on the water...
Also, in case you thought demand is growing, total crude oil seaborne trade was 2,023mt that year... we are below 1,900mt now...
😬

[Jay O'Neil @IGPJay]

@mercoglianos Just takes willpower and money....and getting past government bureaucracy.

[Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ @mercoglianos]

Deep dive video coming on this weekend.

Just note one important factor in this chart.

Japan, Korea, and Europe build roughly the same number and tonnage of ships in 2025 as 2022.

China is winning the global fleet expansion market.

They have nearly doubled the number of ships and almost 3x the tonnage.

[Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ @mercoglianos]

Behold the PGSA!

It is like the PGA, but the PGSA boats have missiles and rockets, vice Tiger Woods' girlfriends.

But both are out to control the market and make a shipload of money.

[Jay O'Neil @IGPJay]

A Grin elevator is like a good hotel. It needs full occupancy and high turn-over.

[Philip Luce @PhilWCC]

This seems self evident but surprisingly is often not. Adding more bushels at low/negative margin is not a path to success.

[Jay O'Neil @IGPJay]

Sal, you are right. But we need to redesign Jones Act, article 27, & make it more effective & economically viable. We need more U.S. flag ships, & they need to be competative in global markets without economically harming U.S. domestic markets & world food program costs.

[Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ @mercoglianos]

@YIMBYLAND You do realize who you will see dominate American waters?

China is building 70.9% of global shipping. That is up over 20% in three years.

In 1999, they built 5%.

[Dominic Pino @DominicJPino]

Look at all the 🇺🇸 trade that's now happening without the Jones Act in effect.

And the Jones Act fleet is still fully booked. This is all extra shipping, from Americans to Americans, that's happening just because government got out of the way.