Ivan Postevoy

Analyst in Fertilizers/Agriculture/Transportation. CFA. Views my own, not investment advice, bla bla bla. I'm here to share thoughts and learn

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

Sorry, I've been quiet on ferts Twitt over the last month - working on other projects

Probably come back to posting in the future once I get everything else sorted out

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

In July, 🇺🇸 US retail #fertilizer prices continued to fall

The gap with FOB quotes in ports is narrowing, which is certainly good news for farmers

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

@dkngn27 They should continue making profits with these duties => no reason to cut production

So yes, no significant change to global s&d

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

⚡ 🇷🇺Russia considers introducing new 8% export duty on #fertilizers:

• Starting from Sept, duration is 1.5 years
• All types of ferts to be affected

This will be in addition to the current duty of 23.5%, which is currently not in use as it only applies to prices above $450/t

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

@davidhelms570 That’s particularly for potash

In phosphates and nitrogen Ru market share is smaller

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

🇷🇺Russia's #fertilizer production in June is out

The most important thing is the almost complete recovery of #potash for the third month in a row

However, I believe we are near the bottom in prices. Further decline might cut off Belarus, as it has high costs due to logistics

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

@davidhelms570 We are currently in the buyer's market, it could be hard for Ru exporters to raise prices significantly and offset these duties

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

I guess this will be more than offset by the current depreciation of the ruble. So producers will not suffer losses and impact on global markets will not be great

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

The only source so far is Interfax article https://t.co/0enkpaqZj0

However, they don't usually write bs

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

Reading about the ongoing strike at the Port of Vancouver (which $NTR uses as an excuse to cut #potash output), I recall last year's CP Rail strike, which also made a lot of noise regarding #potash supply, but ended in two days

I don't think this time it will be different

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

🇧🇷Brazil #fertilizer import in June seems to be weakening:

• Urea and phosphates volumes were well below historical figures
• While potash purchases remained high, they were not as high as they have been recently

Looks like DAP/MAP and MOP prices may soon lose their support

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

🇮🇳India's plan for #fertilizer import in July:

• Urea at 920kmt, in line with historical avg
• DAP at 940kmt, which is a lot. Partly due to increased consumption, partly due to stockpiling
• MOP at 315kmt, though at unpleasant price of $422/mt

Details👇

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

In June, 🇺🇸 US retail #fertilizer prices fell by 1-3%. Gap with FOB quotes in ports is still wide as inland logistics remain expensive

Coupled with recovery in crop prices, average affordability improved by 3%

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

🇷🇺Russia's #fertilizer production in May (proxy for export):

• Volumes of nitrogen and complex products (DAP/MAP, etc.) were at normal levels
• Potash output continued its recovery

I remind that producers expect exports to fully recover in 2Q-4Q23

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

@baterritarrak Can't say, don't have price data for TSP. Should fall along with DAP/MAP

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

🇨🇳China May-23 #fertilizer trade:

• Urea export remained depressed despite talks about loosening restrictions (should we expect growth in June then?)
• Phosphates, on the other hand, are off the leash. Definitely presses prices down
• Normal potash import

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

🇧🇷Brazil #fertilizer import in May:

• Large urea and potash volumes
• On the other hand, phosphate purchases are back to normal

I wonder if Brazil P imports normalize, will we see an acceleration in the decline of the P-prices in the near time?

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

A write-up on May #fertilizer prices:

Mostly down, still no signs of a possible rebound. Gas prices are falling, EU plants are restarting, Chinese export appears to be back

Details👇
https://t.co/cpVsvQ9c6W

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

"Canpotex has reached an agreement with China for #potash shipments through to Dec-23, at a price of $307/mt cfr"

Wow.. CRU expected it at $350/t, if I remember correctly. Also $115/mt lower than Indian contract

Looks very bearish

https://t.co/pn1ZGmZp67

[Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy]

🇷🇺Russia #fertilizer production in April:

• Potash has recovered to normal levels for the first time since Mar-22 (!!)
• Output of nitrogen and other ferts was also normal

Russian producers recently said that exports in 2Q-4Q23 could recover to the record levels of 2021