JK

[JK @IamJakeKane]

@victorJ0NES This is awesome. Teach good habits early. Next lesson for your son is how to safely compound those dollars!

[JK @IamJakeKane]

@jam_croissant @RickSantelli @CNBC We need this for an hour.

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@victorJ0NES Imagine if those 35 million capable people stopped working in capital markets and hit the labor markets. We have literal rocket scientists working at citadel. So much untapped talent to engineer actual things rather than financially engineer gains

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@SuitablePolitic @jam_croissant

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

The level of debt our country faces is unprecedented in all of history. If we don’t effectively deal with it — and soon — our system will experience a financial heart attack.
It all comes down to the numbers. The US currently pays about a trillion dollars a year on interest rates. And over the next year, we’re going to have to pay back and roll forward over nine trillion dollars of debt.

This squeeze on spending simply isn’t sustainable. If spending continues at its current rate, a supply-demand issue is inevitable.

The good news is that this problem is manageable, so long as we act now. You can read my thoughts on what we should do about it in my new study, How Countries Go Broke here: https://t.co/FLCxNtQtJg

[JK @IamJakeKane]

@chamath Did you not know this when you were pumping SPACs?

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@zachweinberg Fraud is legal, anyway. Cc Trevor Milton

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@LynAldenContact Probably that it doesn’t actually do anything.

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@TheStalwart Think about every company that has debt on their books, then think about when they financed that debt, and when they’ll need to refinance that debt and what will happen if they have to refinance it at higher rates.

[JK @IamJakeKane]

@horizons59 @KushnFlow

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@ZevShalev @jam_croissant

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@chamath What will happen to inflation when everyone can borrow cheaply all at once, corporate tax cuts, and deregulation come into the mix?

“Inflation is a very tricky genie to get back in the bottle.” -Carl Icahn

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@JustinBloesch @kylascan If they want to keep their promise to onshore manufacturing they’ll need to first crush the economy so people can borrow to do so then they’ll stimulate with tax cuts & de-regulation. If they don’t crush the economy first then they’ll get a major wave of inflation.

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@jam_croissant price action reminding me so much of March 2022. FOMC was a fun one that month…

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@SpencerHakimian I don’t disagree at all. Raw materials in general would be a winner.

But let’s do a thought exercise. Govt can make their debt vanish if they choose. What about the players who can’t (CRE, VC, PE)? What happens when they need to roll over the debt they took out in 2020?

[JK @IamJakeKane]

@elonmusk @unusual_whales

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@SamanthaLaDuc Great write up, Samantha. I am extremely interested to see what DOGE actually uncovers. I don’t believe getting the 10Y yield to drop is going to be an easy feat. I am leaning towards a period of stagflation, but undeniably a lot of moving parts and we will see!

[Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️ @bennpeifert]

GVV (gamma-vanna-volga) modeling. This is a very handy and intuitive approach to thinking about options that links the shape of volatility surfaces to the nature of the key risk factors that an option position represents.

[JK @IamJakeKane]

@unusual_whales To be fair, there was a regional banking crisis that March lol