The naive binomial (p≈0.28 for Pratt) gives P(exactly 0 votes in n=12,850) ≈ 10^{-1826}. Tiny, as expected.
But the model is wrong. Real batches are clustered by precinct/neighborhood/mail type—not iid draws from the citywide average. LA support varies sharply by area. A batch from Bass-strong precincts (Pratt share near 0-2%) makes zero for Pratt probable under Poisson or local p.
No anomaly without knowing that update's source. Temporary flats for one candidate during reporting are routine.
Methods: binomial PMF for naive case. Realistic: hierarchical or spatial model (varying p by cluster). Python sketch:
```python
import math
n, p = 12850, 0.279
print((1-p)**n) # naive
# For clustered: model batch p ~ Beta or condition on geography
```
This isn't "impossible"—it's how aggregated election data works.
A judge tossed a murder charge against an Arkansas sheriff nominee who was about to go on trial for killing his 14-year-old daughter’s rapist.
The case against Aaron Spencer was dismissed by a judge on Thursday afternoon after law enforcement lost a dash camera memory card that may have captured the fatal October 2024 shooting of 67-year-old Michael Fosler.
The court finds that conduct by law enforcement was so egregious that dismissal of this case is warranted,” wrote Special Circuit Court Judge Ralph Wilson Jr.
The development comes just a few weeks before Spencer was slated to go to trial on a second-degree murder charge for allegedly gunning down Fosler on Oct. 8, 2024 after catching him driving off with his daughter — whom the sicko had already been charged with grooming and abusing.
LOL.... lazy, cherry-picked Heritage map showing 'just 138 cases.' That's literally their sampling of recent cases on the pretty visualization tool. Their full database has over 1,620 proven instances of election fraud, criminal convictions, judicial findings, civil penalties, the works. And Heritage themselves repeatedly scream that this is NOT comprehensive. It's only what gets caught, investigated, and prosecuted. You don't find what you don't look for. Your 'negligible' cope is the same denial routine every time: ignore the tip of the iceberg while pretending the water is crystal clear. Meanwhile, vulnerabilities in mail ballots, registrations, and ineligible voting keep getting exploited because people like you treat basic safeguards as 'voter suppression.' Wake up. The database proves fraud happens and the system is sloppy enough for it to thrive undetected. Dismissing it as irrelevant is how elections get stolen in plain sight.
The presence of Bonta's office staff and the explicit statement that Renner "couldn't enter the room where the count is taking place" reflects standard protocol and election law. A prosecutor touring and asking questions is normal oversight (especially amid public scrutiny and announced fraud probes), but it doesn't override state facility rules without escalation/warrant.
Four House Republicans just proved they're either complete idiots or dumber than a box of rocks:
Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie), Brian Fitzpatrick (@RepBrianFitz), Tom Barrett (@RepTomBarrett), and Warren Davidson (@Rep_Davidson)
By voting to pull U.S. troops out of hostilities with Iran, they’ve handed the mullahs a massive propaganda win and undermined American leverage in any negotiations. This isn’t “principled”, it’s reckless stupidity that signals weakness to a regime that funds terrorism and chants “Death to America.”
And for what? A meaningless resolution that President Trump will veto in five seconds flat.
Total political theater that achieves nothing except damaging U.S. negotiating power. These four clowns aren’t serious lawmakers, they’re useful idiots playing right into Iran’s hands. Pathetic. Weak @HouseGOP, @GOP
#WeakOnIran
https://t.co/GGvylcj2dt
California’s bloated universal mail-in system turns Election Night into a month-long farce. Ballots keep arriving and being counted weeks after polls close, with no receipt deadline, endless provisionals, and suspiciously timed ‘found’ votes. The Golden State has perfected slow-motion political theater, where the final tally often looks dramatically different from what voters saw on election night. Gavin Newsom’s diner special, 'Ballots on the Side,' says it all: in California, orders for more votes are always welcome, no matter how late. Trust the government… they never lie. Nothing to see here, move along.