In a not so distant future:
every time a human gets sick, AI will invent and test a custom cure for their exact ailment, for their exact DNA sequence.
Hyper-personalized healthcare at scale.
Fuck I’m so AGI-pilled rn.
this is actually insane
> be tech guy in australia
> adopt cancer riddled rescue dog, months to live
> not_going_to_give_you_up.mp4
> pay $3,000 to sequence her tumor DNA
> feed it to ChatGPT and AlphaFold
> zero background in biology
> identify mutated proteins, match them to drug targets
> design a custom mRNA cancer vaccine from scratch
> genomics professor is “gobsmacked” that some puppy lover did this on his own
> need ethics approval to administer it
> red tape takes longer than designing the vaccine
> 3 months, finally approved
> drive 10 hours to get rosie her first injection
> tumor halves
> coat gets glossy again
> dog is alive and happy
> professor: “if we can do this for a dog, why aren’t we rolling this out to humans?”
one man with a chatbot, and $3,000 just outperformed the entire pharmaceutical discovery pipeline.
we are going to cure so many diseases.
I dont think people realize how good things are going to get
Agree that Copilot has a large market share in enterprise rn, but this mostly due to favorable licensing and tighter integrations with M365 products.
“Turning on” Copilot for an enterprise is just a couple button clicks and you automatically get it integrated with Teams, Excel, Outlook etc. where a typical enterprise worker spends a lot of their daily work time.
Great. Commendable onboarding.
That being said, Copilot as a product is far lagging behind what LLM products at the frontier can do. It’s like someone took a bootleg version of ChatGPT, neutered it by 50%, and released it. Not to even compare to harnesses enabling long-running tasks like Claude Code and Cowork.
Yes, Copilot has market share, but that’s due to being in the M365 ecosystem, not superior product.
tldr; it’s Microsoft’s race to lose…and they are not showing many signs they’re turning it around.
Beautifully written.
FWIW I discovered you for the “alpha” on silver, stayed for the macro musings and philosophical takes.
Understand where the dawning sense of guilt/responsibility, but don’t be too hard on yourself. At the end of the day we are all fully capable adults who make our own decisions. When in pain, we also reflect.
Will be a happy paid subscriber for whatever you end up deciding on spinning off for investment advice.
This stranger on the internet is rooting for you 💪🏾.
@abcampbell I discovered your account last month and I’m blown away by how accurate your hyperstitions are proving to be…outside of campbellramble, anywhere else to read more of your thoughts?
1. Inference is a lot cheaper than you think + will keep getting more efficient. We won’t be doing massive pre-training runs forever.
2. None of this matters for whoever reaches “powerful AI”/AGI-adjacent/whatever you want to call it. The amount of value they’ll be able to create+capture far exceeds today’s even on “lower” margins.