IndexInvestorLLC

Since 1997, Index Investor has provided macro analysis (tech, econ, natsec, soc, pol, & fin); asset allocation insights, and early warning of emerging threats.

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

The coming collision in Illinois between municipal bondholder and pension beneficiaries rights is a classic Grey Swan - a crisis you see coming, but do nothing about. It could trigger a much bigger crisis. #strategicuncertainty #RiskManagement #GreySwan
https://t.co/JcFFcybvS4

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

Bill White is one of the most prescient forecasters we know. Don't miss his latest research paper: "What Next for the Post Covid Global Economy:
Could Negative Supply Shocks Disrupt Other
Fragile Systems?" #globalmacro #investing #riskmanagement

https://t.co/rhgFNR9WKd

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

Don't miss this excellent new column about the underlying dynamics in US politics today by @mgurri. Insightful as always. #globalmacro #riskmanagement #investing #forecasting #strategy #uncertainty

https://t.co/5BlwTygkYT

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

Important insights from Tyler Cowen about the disruptive impact of rapidly improving cognitive automation technologies. Most investors and politicians underestimate the accelerating speed of this process. #investing #riskmanagement #globalmacro #strategy

https://t.co/xrX647O6xs

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

New Substack is up, covering new evidence in technology, energy, health, economy, national security & politics. #globalmacro #investing #riskmanagement #strategy #complexity #RIA #CFA #CFP #Advisor

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

Timeless words of financial market wisdom from @johnarnold. Over a long career, I've seen these lessons painfully relearned more times than I can count. #globalmacro #investing #riskmanagement

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

My 2¢ on recent crypto insolvencies:
1) There's a strong incentive to turn any business more profitable by adding leverage.
2) Without a constraint on leverage (from regulators, third party exchanges, lenders, risk managers, etc), some market actors will inevitably overlever.
1/2

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

My 2¢ on recent crypto insolvencies:
1) There's a strong incentive to turn any business more profitable by adding leverage.
2) Without a constraint on leverage (from regulators, third party exchanges, lenders, risk managers, etc), some market actors will inevitably overlever.
1/2

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

From today's @FT. Sometimes a picture really is worth a thousand words. @globalmacro #investing #riskmanagement #strategy @WarintheFuture

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

Without Trump as an outsized caricature for the Ds to attack, the political game has very likely changed in the US. The critical uncertainty now is whether DeSantis will put together real policy proposals that can solve the problems animating populist anger, even if elites object

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

Thread. So what has changed the morning after the US midterm election? Have the issues driving populist frustration and anger been resolved? Have progressives elites become any less strident? Have the battles between D and R factions ended? #globlamacro #investing #strategy

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

The answer to all of the above is "no." But one very important thing may have changed: Donald Trump's spell over mass populism appears to have substantially weakened, and the chances of a successful run by Gov DeSantis to become the 2024 R presidential candidate have gone way up

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

New research that will turn heads: "Adding corporate governance features does not improve the models’ predictive accuracy beyond the predictive accuracy captured by firm characteristics." #globalmacro #investing

https://t.co/ez5sUOj0F2

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

Does anybody think a failing domestic economy and rising middle class anger will make Xi less likely to attack Taiwan? #globalmacro #riskmanagement

https://t.co/jx8oq5M3OO

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

To help you make sense of the threats we face in our complex, uncertain world, check out https://t.co/qs8tFhwPCD's latest insights at https://t.co/0PSa0EKSvX. #globalmacro #investing #strategy #risk #CFA #RIA #CFP #Advisors

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

At https://t.co/qs8tFhwPCD, we've been warning about this for more than 2 years. #globalmacro #forecasting #complexity #investing #riskmanagement #CFA #RIA #CFP #Advisors
https://t.co/sDH9ElxLpK

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

"The fundamental drivers of debt sustainability have now returned. A shift in expectations to higher equilibrium interest rates and lower economic growth may push debt dynamics into a bad equilibrium." Amen. #globlamacro #investing #riskmanagement
https://t.co/cD4vVEwc5q

[Steve Stewart-Williams @SteveStuWill]

The Ten Commandments of Logic

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

“This is the most complex, disparate and cross-cutting set of challenges that I can remember in the 40 years that I have been paying attention to such things" - Larry Summers. Subscribe today: https://t.co/qs8tFhwPCD
#globalmacro #forecasting #investing #emergingthreats

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

Our latest weekly update covers the potential impact of new national security, economic, social, and political evidence. #globalmacro #investing #strategy #forecast #riskmanagement Produced by https://t.co/qs8tFhwPCD

[IndexInvestorLLC @IndexLlc]

Just published our latest substack. Click below to access it. And visit https://t.co/qs8tFheGov. #globalmacro #investing #riskmanagement #forecasting #complexity