Jonas Savimbi

Daddy's Home

[Matt Burnell @mdburnell]

This administration, and specifically the Secretary of Defense, have been waging a war against critical thinking and common sense since taking office. Why? Because thinking is "Low-T." That is the level of intellect he operates at.

Analysts and subject matter experts and academics and historians and logisticians aren't lethal so they don't matter. All that matters to him are the trigger pullers.

Never mind the fact that the trigger pullers wouldn't have a trigger to pull or know which way to point the gun without the analysts, subject matter experts, academics, historians, and logisticians. It is the thinkers that win wars. Math wins wars. Logistics wins wars.

More importantly, these are the people that keep you out of unwinnable forever wars to begin with.
https://t.co/tiTCLNLX0H

[Matt Burnell @mdburnell]

If you're wondering where all the rational, educated, and experienced humans in the chain that might have warned about this went, I give you a story in three parts:

[Matt Burnell @mdburnell]

You really can just say anything on this app if you host a podcast, huh? I should start a podcast and then make demonstrably batshit insane claims like this to generate clicks, views and listens.

Even if we pretend the B61-11 would successfully achieve its maximum penetration depth of 30 feet, which it won't because it is designed to penetrate soil and concrete not granite, it would barely even shake the pictures off of the walls of the complex hundreds of feet below.

You know how we know that? Because we've tested it. A lot. The US conducted no fewer than four test operations to determine the effects of various yield nuclear devices exploding underground in various types of materials.

Operation Nougat, Operation Whetstone, Operation Niblick and Operation Flintlock collectively detonated 178 nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site. The purpose was twofold, to help us better understand underground blast waves so we can build better bunkers, and to know how best to attack those of our enemies.

One such test, Hardhat, was a 5 kiloton nuclear device placed in a hole drilled 943 feet into solid granite. 200 feet from the detonation point, a tunnel was dug to place sensors to gather data. The tunnel was a typical mining-style tunnel, it was not concrete reinforced.

Following the detonation, and the subsequent collapse of the cavity around the detonation point, the tunnel collapsed up to about the 450 foot mark radial from the detonation point.

Again, remember this tunnel was not concrete reinforced like a bunker, it was simply a tunnel dug in the granite to place sensors. The Pickaxe Mountain complex likely sits at least 300-400 feet below the surface. It is likely reinforced with 8-12" thick concrete. If we extrapolate the Hardhat data to a facility like that, it is unlikely you would even see any crushing or cracking of the granite immediately surrounding the complex.

Even if millions of tons of granite were to fall onto it once the cavity collapses, I highly doubt the facility would suffer any significant damage. And that's if we assume it is only 300-400 feet deep. I strongly suspect it is closer to 600.

Also, and this is very important, we have zero evidence that there is ANY nuclear activity happening at that complex. It is still being built. There are no signs it is even operational in any capacity. But sure, let's nuke it.

[Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ @mercoglianos]

The best combat action scene ever in a movie!

These guys are not acting!

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

@krish29399 @JackRangaswami Ik ofc , but that doesn't mean he's a v good analyst.

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

Interesting.

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

My newest piece for Carnegie revisits the Plaza Accord and its relevance for China. The Plaza Accord was not an externally imposed punishment of Japan but part of a broader restructuring that Japanese economists and policymakers themselves recognized was necessary. Its effects were undermined, however, when Tokyo responded to the resulting slowdown with policies that exacerbated investment, credit expansion, and the very imbalances the exchange-rate realignment was intended to resolve.
https://t.co/U8Bc4l0WNF

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

@value_added_tax It boils down to whether India is willing to provide manpower in Mideast. If it is, there's no better choice than Indian Army/security forces. Unlike US, that spent billions to be kicked out by Taliban, India actually has experience crushing insurgents.

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

@JackRangaswami This won't happen again there. CCP won't allow it.

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

@JackRangaswami PRC already did this with its property & construction sectors in the 2000s and 2010s, esp post-2008. Ppl don't realize PRC's massive growth from 2001-2015 was driven just as much by internal investment into property/construction as exports.

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

@JackRangaswami I don't think anything like this will happen, and Noah Smith is wrong on most things except for India. Even for India, he's only directionally right, and still irrationally optimistic.

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

@ShamanGeo You can't even blockade Iran anymore and got brutally humiliated by them. I am really confused as to how this hasn't hit ppl yet. THE US, ESP UNDER TRUMP, IS ABSOLUTELY A COLLECTION OF FOOLS RN.

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

@JohnDoe34631032 Amidst this, THIS IS WHAT YOU GET TIME TO DISCUSS? How collectively braindead? Your so-called PRC+1 supply chain runs through Vietnam & PRC can cut that off anytime. If you weren't stupid, you would actually aggressively work with India. But why would I accuse you of being smart?

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

@JohnDoe34631032 HUR DUR MODI TOLD US THEY WANT TO BE NEXT PRC WHILE STRENGTHENING RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA. Idiot. EU & Turkey continue to buy gas from Russia through Turkstream. PRC is pulling the rug under your feet in all frontier industries while orangutan has cooked your influence worldwide.

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

India is facing a coal supply crunch as dry El Nino weather curbs hydro power 🇮🇳⚠️

Coal power generation jumped this month, depleting inventories to a three year low. About 40% of the 196 plants surveyed by the government had critical low stockpiles

https://t.co/k3LR6SK0tJ

[Evgeny Morozov @evgenymorozov]

The combination of using AI for translation and living in Asia has resulted in me hunting for and buying the weirdest of books - e.g. this gem of a 1987 Japanese text on the genealogy of Marx's thought on technology and machines.

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

@n30n5223434 French used to be a global diplomatic language before. I wonder when it stopped being so.

[Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch @BabakTaghvaee1]

BREAKING: Israeli military sources believe the 29 U.S. Navy personnel and eight Marines recently reported wounded during the Iran war sustained their injuries aboard a U.S. Navy warship, most likely Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, believed to have been struck by a precision-guided ballistic missile launched by the IRGC Aerospace Force.

It is believed that the IRGC received assistance from China to improve the accuracy of its anti-ship ballistic missiles by equipping them with advanced TV/IR sensors to precisely target U.S. Navy vessels.

As a result, U.S. Navy aircraft carriers, destroyers and other vessels have reportedly moved farther from Iran’s shores and are avoiding operations in the northern Arabian Sea.

The ballistic missile used by the IRGC to target the American warship is believed to be Khalije Fars. The incident has taken place in September.

[Jonathon P Sine @JonathonPSine]

Red flags someone is about to bullshit you

"History shows..."
"History teaches us..."
"Historians agree..."

[Dylan Malyasov | 🧐 @DylanMalyasov]

Many people still think artillery is an outdated, relatively simple technology that can almost be produced in a garage. In reality, a U.S. contract for just the special HF-1 steel used to make 155mm artillery shell bodies is worth up to $995 million.

https://t.co/k2IYVTqn5R

[Jonas Savimbi @InfiniteTutan]

@ravirockks The hostility of this administration to India is insane.