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“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

2026 FORECAST AND THOUGHTS:

These are my extremely unorganized thoughts for 2026. In short, good times at first, but mostly bad times this year, and lots of volatility.

In January, and possibly extending through Q1, expect a sharp run-up in alts and equities broadly. This rally will be driven by a perfect storm of tax-loss rebuying, gross under-allocation from sidelined players, a boost in retail from larger-than-usual tax refunds, and a favorable monetary impulse. Additionally, expect the administration to lean on the scale to juice their midterm odds. However, the optimism will be short-lived. While alts may outperform Bitcoin in January-Q1, BTC likely fails to hit a new ATH and the "rally" will end in extreme pain, failing to materialize in a sustainable bull market - similar to early 2024. This will keep the 4-year cycle theory in tact, something that no one believes in right now. I think we see a 2022-style down-only crypto market with most alts getting decimated. My guess is that BTC will eventually fall to the $38k–$48k range, which will be an all-time great buying opportunity.

For stocks, don’t expect a "down-only" 2022-style slaughter. It will look more like 2018: high volatility with the index finishing +- 5%. We are staring down a period of significant economic weakness. Housing is already in a recession, and will likely continue to be, and as the saying goes, the housing cycle is the business cycle. With labor deteriorating due to the first real wave of AI-related layoffs and the continued K-shaped economy dynamics, we will really start to see real economic weakness mid to late year, though it will not culminate in a recession as investment and government spending will be too high for that.

The market is currently pricing in instant rate cuts once Trump appoints a new Fed Chair, but that’s a mistake. The Fed will likely rebel to prove its independence, remaining more hawkish than necessary when Trump appoints a new chair. This will put immense strain on the economy, much more than is necessary, as the economy will continue to weaken, but will not receive the rate cuts that it needs. Furthermore, liquidity will lag behind economic needs. The Fed’s balance sheet expansion won't keep pace with the massive drain caused by the US having to refinance a mountain of debt - i.e., the liquidity base increases but does not keep up with the needs of the economic base. While AI earnings should hold up, the rest of the market, which is tethered to the "real" economy, will struggle.

I think that the economic weakness combined with a stubborn Fed will result in a shock to the economy sometime in H2 (whether it be really bad economic data, some bank failures, or funding market blow ups) that will force the administration to juice the fiscal lever and for the Fed to come in MUCH stronger than it otherwise would have had to. This will be the juice that starts the next bull move: a return of liquidity and a return of retail.

To understand the last three years, you have to understand the letter K. We have a K-shaped economy (the top 10% thrive while the 90% struggle), a K-shaped stock market (Mag 7 up, everything else flat/down), a K-shaped crypto market (BTC up, alts down), and a K-shaped Fed (pro-institution vs pro-administration). This K-shaped dynamic has infiltrated all parts of the economy, the market, and society. I expect that to continue.

The reason alts haven’t moved despite a "good" stock market is that crypto is still a retail-heavy asset class, and retail is at the bottom of the K. Retail simply has no money right now and is in a recession. In 2021, they had stimmys and low rates, but since then, retail has been in a recession, and alts have reflected that. Bitcoin, conversely, has become an institutional asset at the top of the K, thus outperforming alts. Additionally, crypto is still extremely tethered to liquidity, and since 2018, we haven't had a constant "QE push", only sporadic liquidity injections like BTFP or T-bill buying. Alts need that constant liquidity flow to shine. This results in alts getting hit twice as hard - no retail flow, and no institutional liquidity, thus the depressed prices.

The popular sentiment that "alts are dead" is particularly wrong. As the Fed eventually becomes a political, pro-liquidity institution, as alts finally start to embrace buybacks and all value accruing to tokenholders (i.e. Uniswap), and as the bottom K recovers, the very forces that suppressed alts this cycle will propel them in the next.

Wall Street is calling for a fourth straight year of +20% gains, and crypto-native circles think the four-year cycle is dead. I’m fading both. I don’t believe AI is a bubble in the traditional sense; the market is richly valued, but the earnings are real, and the earnings are coming from other businesses, so they are somewhat immune to real economy weakness. There are two real bubbles: the AI bubble bubble (i.e., the bubble about AI being a bubble), and the US AI supremacy bubble. The first is simple, in the dot com bubble and 2021, everyone talked about stocks and few thought there was a bubble. Today, everyone talks about an AI bubble. As a general rule, you always fade public sentiment. Because of this, I do not expect there to be a traditional "pop" in the AI bubble that the public is talking about. The second bubble is more nuanced: the US AI supremacy bubble - i.e., the bubble that the US is the only country where you can get AI exposure. This has forced huge multiples on Mag7 companies because US AI is the only game in town. I suspect that sometime in 2026, China will start to flex its AI strength, similar to the DeepSeek moment but at a larger scale. This will cause US tech multiples to compress as the bubble that US AI is the only game in town pops. Prices will drop while earnings hold mostly steady. The bulls will be wrong because prices fall, but the bears will be wrong because nothing actually goes to zero and earnings don't collapse. It’s a bubble deflation, not a pop.

Lastly, I expect there to be some kind of geopolitical issue that has last effects, unlike Iran/Israel that mattered for a few weeks. What that is, I'm not entirely sure. Additionally, I am highly convicted that inflation will be a non-issue, it will matter as it always does, but there is not risk that inflation reaccelarates. That said, we will likely not see a super weak dollar, in fact we could even see a stronger dollar due to the Fed lagging on rate cuts.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

@JTheretohelp1 Doesn’t look like a leading/predictive relationship. Looks like they move in tandem.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

Not looking so good. Break of 8 and it’s DEAD. No position yet.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

$LAB looks ready to go parabolic (again)

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

@spectrader5 Volume

Surfing MAs

Declining ATR + volume consolidation

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

I’ve been calling for that since January when everyone said 4Y cycle doesn’t exist. Wait for October, I guarantee people will call for an extended bear market. A narrative of “crypto is dead forever” is taking hold and is becoming consensus, this will increase into October.

Same exact thing happened last bear market btw - everyone said “everyone thinks we bottom in October, extended bear market time.” Then we actually got to October everyone abandoned that and proclaimed that crypto was dead because of FTX.

Same shit, different cycle

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

$BTC

If this bottom holds, I think we range up to about $75k then puke sometime between August-October and bottom between October and November.

If this framework is correct, optimal buys are for the next few days and then in October.

When $BTC makes new lows all other coins will puke but some may not make new lows. I think most AI names already bottomed and $ETH bottomed as well.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

THE INFINITE SIGMA BOTTOM IS HOLDING.

BALLS FOREVER CLENCHED.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

Calling the bottom on $ETH at $1600. If this doesn’t hold it’s going to $900.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

Liking what I see so far.

BALLS STILL CLENCHED.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

@HunterBiden What do you think are the 3 biggest problems with the Republican party and the Democrat party?

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

Idk if you’re thinking about running, but you’ve tapped into something here.

You come off as EXTREMELY real, unfiltered but not in an inconsiderate way, and in-touch with what most people care about (rather than telling people “this is what you want, listen to me.”)

You’ve got the populist right wing ideals without all the racism and cronyism and the left wing populist ideals without the socialism and paternalism.

Dare I say you’re the ultimate populist?

Please run, if you keep this up, I think that your candidacy would be very good for the country.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

@CryptoHayes Well that was a quick one.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

@CryptoHayes Prediction:

Within the next 2 months @CryptoHayes will make a tweet about $WLD similar to what he just did with $ZEC

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

Andy, I’m generally familiar with your framework on the "E bubble"—the idea that the market is mistaking a massive capex cycle for structural aggregate earnings growth that GDP pie math can't support.

Question on the sequencing though.

What if the capex bubble popping happens simultaneously with the arrival of the actual AI productivity benefits? If the massive infrastructure overbuild drastically slashes compute costs right as hardware spend drops, the downstream enterprise profit boom could kick in at the exact same moment.

Obviously, There’d be carnage for the buildout beneficiaries, but we’d see new winners from AI productivity increases and applications. Could this simultaneous adoption-driven earnings boom immediately offset the capex pop and prevent a macro downturn entirely? Obviously it might be wishful thinking to say it will occur simultaneously, but if this does happen, would your bubble thesis be invalidated?

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

The fact that people have similar sentiment rn to FTX times is fucking crazy. People let price inform their views, not fundamentals, which makes them buy high and sell low.

All while tokenomics are improving across all coins and AI agents will soon come on chain and increase TVL, fees, and transaction volumes 10x.

Very sad how dumb CT is.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

@spectrader5 Thank you! I don’t feel particularly confident in the ETH call but I don’t think anyone does when they’re trying to call a bottom

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

Clanker fired extreme oversold. I’m also going off the trendlines from the picture.

IMO, $ETH bottoms at $1600 and the rest of the market is due for a temporary bounce in the next few days.

I think similar to 2022, $ETH bottoms in June but gets dragged down in October but doesn’t make a new low.

I could be totally wrong though

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

Clanker also printed a tier 3 buy signal. I am a buyer, think we have made a temporary low or are days away from one.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

Lows are not in, but I think we could see a sizable bounce at the 200WMA + 60k support. Waiting for confirmation first.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

Looking like the signal will hold. I’m going long as I believe we have TEMPORARILY bottomed today or within the next few days.

$HYPE also just hit support, which gives me more confidence.

Fingers crossed, balls clenched.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

$MAGMA up 50%.

I warned you.

[🔄 @Infinite__Sigma]

$MAGMA is about to go on a parabolic run.

Don't say I didn't warn you.