Iniohos Advisory

Iniohos Advisory Services Sarl is an independent investment consulting & advisory company.

[FactSet @FactSet]

The "Magnificent 7" companies reported earnings growth of 63.2% for Q1 2026, which is the highest earnings growth rate reported by these 7 companies since Q2 2021 (89.2%). #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/ypOODeifVf

[Bloomberg @business]

Rolls-Royce is planning to sell euro-denominated debt for the first time since 2020 as it seeks to buffer its business against the impact of the Middle East war https://t.co/E8CQAybOxg

[FactSet @FactSet]

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX is 21.0, which is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.9). #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/BepNbZ1uq4

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

S&P 500 dividend yield dumps to just 1.16% @AugurInfinity

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🔴Market concentration BUBBLE is still rising:

The top 10 stocks now make up 41% of the S&P 500, AN ALL-TIME HIGH.

The Magnificent 7’s share has also hit a new record of 35%.

Out of 500 stocks, just 10 are driving the entire index.

This is absolutely MIND-BLOWING.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨US layoffs are rising at a CRISIS pace:

US employers announced 85,979 job cuts in August, the highest since the 2020 CRISIS.

This was just 2,757 fewer than in the Financial Crisis.

There have been 892,362 job cuts YTD, the 2nd-highest since 2008👇
https://t.co/w1SA4hb0q4

[FactSet @FactSet]

$SPX is expected to report Y/Y revenue growth of 6.3% for Q3 2025, which is above the estimate of 4.8% on June 30. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/6iv9sKHDWn

[Steve Donzé @steve_donze]

Easing like it's 2008 or 2020. Into an AI boom.

[Financial Times @FT]

Opinion: In the Trump 2.0 era in financial markets, the dollar is taking the strain. The stock rally is masking deep anxiety from investors about the path forward for the world’s biggest economy. https://t.co/phTq1D4QdC

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Moody's on a US recession:

The probability of a recession within the next 12 months jumped to 48% in August, the highest since the 2020 pandemic.

This is according to Moody’s Analytics’ leading economic indicator, which uses extensive economic data and a machine learning model.

Historically, such a high probability has never occurred outside of recessions.

This comes as US job market conditions have deteriorated significantly over the last few months.

Additionally, the BLS revised non-farm payrolls down by -911,000 for the 12 months ending March 2025, marking the largest annual downward revision on record.

Would earlier Fed rate cuts have prevented this?

[FactSet @FactSet]

76% of $SPX companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q1, which is below the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 75%. #earnings, https://t.co/DItYuKqLEB,

[FactSet @FactSet]

62% of $SPX companies have beaten revenue estimates to date for Q1, which is below the 5-year average of 69% and below the 10-year average of 64%. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/B21pZaw0Rv

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: China

China's exports decline 10% year-over-year, the largest drop in AT LEAST 15 years

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.

Revisions lowered payroll growth by 58,000 for February and March.

The economy has added 193,167 jobs per month, on average, over the last six months.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Institutional investors have rarely been this bearish on Magnificent 7:

Hedge funds’ long/short ratio on Magnificent 7 stocks fell to ~2.5x, the lowest on record.

By comparison, at the end of the 2022 bear market, this ratio was ~3.0x.

Additionally, hedge funds’ net exposure to Magnificent 7 has fallen ~8 percentage points over the 12 months, to ~13%, near the lowest in 2 years.

Despite the recent rally, these stocks are still down 18% since the December peak.

Institutional capital is not buying this rally yet.

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

It took exactly a month for the S&P 500 $SPY to round-trip its 14.7% post-Liberation Day crash:

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Incredible: Amazon's AWS revenue over the last 12 months ($112 billion) was higher than the revenue of 468 companies in the S&P 500. $AMZN

https://t.co/rQuXrxVpWs

[Lawrence H. Summers @LHSummers]

With “besties” like @theallinpod @chamath, President @realDonaldTrump has a problem on economic policy. Any serious economist or macro investor knows that the falling 10-year interest rates and oil prices, along with the falling stock market, we have had are a sign of recession fears not economic strength. See Polymarket for direct evidence.

America has lost more relative economic ground in the first 100 days of this Administration than any other. We are making America Ordinary Again. Sad.

[IMF @IMFNews]

Growth in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to slow to 3.7% in 2025. The resilience recently shown by many EMDEs may be tested as high debt becomes harder to service amid tight global financial conditions.

https://t.co/zbFEIL3V12

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️This is truly MIND-BLOWING:

Retail investors bought a RECORD $40 BILLION of US equities in April.

Mom-and-pop investors have been furiously buying since the April 7th low, while institutions have massively sold and stayed on the sidelines.

How is this going to end?