Inner Citadel

Trading the liquidity game | Stoic living | Class of 2016

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

3 weeks ago I purchased a new 100k challenge at
@breakoutprop💫
Passed the 2 step within 24 hours and currently up 16% 🥳.
The only platform that treats traders as a partner instead of a product.
Thank you for building such an amazing platform❤️@Tradermayne @CryptoCred

[K A L E O @CryptoKaleo]

Strategy's $STRC problem:

Saylor has used the issuance of STRC to fund billions of dollars of Bitcoin purchases for the better part of the last year.

The pitch?

STRC sits above common shares with a $100 stated liquidation preference and have an attractive dividend of 11.5%, which gets bumped up gradually when the shares are trading below $99 avg.

It naturally incentivizes buyers because the liquidation preference is economically supported by Strategy's ~844K Bitcoin on the balance sheet after debt and senior preferred claims, and the effective yield rises as the STRC price falls (e.g. at $92 STRC the effective yield is 12.5%).

So, what's the problem?

Their total debt + preferred senior to common claims are roughly ~$22.2B. Most of which isn't a problem ~currently~ (but there are billions of dollars worth of notes that become puttable in 2027-2028... and if MSTR is below conversion economics or refinancing markets are closed, those become hard cash obligations).

Their preferred dividends are currently ~$1.7B annually. And they only have ~$900M cash on hand... so the runway math doesn't look great.

So where does the money come from?

The yield has to come from somewhere.

Their revenue from the software company alone is only ~$500M/yr. That doesn't come anywhere close to what's needed.

They realistically have two options for raising capital:

1) Sell more MSTR...

They currently have ~$26B common ATM capacity available to them, but the issue is they're currently trading at an mNAV well below 1 already. Tapping into this is incredibly dilutive for common shareholders.

2) Sell more Bitcoin...

Saylor already effectively broke the trust he's established for years to "Never sell Bitcoin" when he made a 32 BTC sale last week.

The sale was tiny, but it gave the market a concrete reason to price the possibility of future BTC sales.

But the primary purpose of STRC is to raise more capital to buy more Bitcoin, right?

So in order to buy more Bitcoin, they have to sell Bitcoin.

But we saw what the market did after a small 32 BTC sale. BTC took a massive hit in anticipation that there could be more sales... The machine is breaking.

Strategy can defer dividend payments though if they want, right?

Yes, but unpaid STRC dividends accumulate and then compound monthly. So this isn't a long-term viable option. Deferring STRC dividends preserves cash, but turns STRC from a cash-yield product into distressed preferred equity.

And if the payments aren't being made to STRC, will any investor have confidence to buy it at a discount?

And if STRC is carrying a massive discount, it effectively eliminates it as an option for Strategy to use to continue funding new BTC purchases...

e.g. if STRC is $70, they'd be selling $100 of future liabilities for $70 of current credit. Not a great trade.

Reminder that STRC's $100 is not a redemption peg. Holders cannot simply demand $100 back in normal conditions. The price is maintained by confidence, yield support and Strategy's desire to preserve the funding channel.

If this dynamic persists, the largest corporate buyer of Bitcoin could shift from accumulating to liquidity management via selling or make the common shareholders of MSTR carry the burden by diluting them substantially (for as long as that can last).

I could see this collapse happening fairly swiftly.

It doesn't mean that MSTR necessarily dies off or is forced to immediately sell all of their Bitcoin (that door could be opened early though with something like a change of control of the company, delisting, etc.)...

Not sure what the solution is, but one thing is certain:

I would not want to be holding $MSTR right now.

The risk is not that STRC instantly becomes worthless. The risk is that once STRC trades like distressed preferred equity, Strategy loses a major funding channel while its dividend burden and note put wall remain.

The flywheel effect and the fear from what we've seen with previous major collapses (e.g. Luna / UST, FTX, 10/10, etc.) could lead to something similar here.

This doesn't mean I'm bearish on Bitcoin. I actually think it'll create an insane buying opportunity.

MSTR isn't Bitcoin.

If it does fail, plenty of people will try to claim BTC failed along with it. We've seen it happen plenty of times with plenty of other names. Every time the people digging Bitcoin's grave were wrong. This time isn't any different.

[Nobody Sausage @nobodysausage]

@MINHxDYNASTY

[imgnAI @imgn_ai]

@blknoiz06 @KSimback Think we're still the only AI Company in the tokenized space that actually trains and hosts models

So, the real total market cap of crypto AI coins is actually about $1.5mil, the rest is just Web2 re-seller and wrapper value

[CRYPTODRAGON ⚡️ @CryptoDragon]

TRIA ( @useTria ) Lost the community trust

I have been using Tria Wallet for sometime now and i did not join for the airdrop to be honest

I actually liked the product

But over the past few hours got little concerning on the trust side , When $TRIA did not distribute fairly and actually gaslighted the real users over Binance Alpha users which does not have anything related to Actual usage of product

Community was first told they will rewarded for premium card but now Team just ghosted whole community

Founder who was actively saying that card holders will get rewarded now mods on discord says that app is showing everything fine which means Community has not been rewarded

So with all these developments i have lost my trust and Now i am quitting the app which i will not use cause i dont trust the team anymore

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

Today's gameplan:
I am hinting towards yesterday being a fake pump to excite people so today can be dumped hard at FOMC day.
Still in a $BTC short from the local swing high.
Will short $SOL when we sweep the mid swing cluster. #bitcoin #solana

[Nobody Sausage @nobodysausage]

The Blueprint: Token Buyback

With a social following bigger than the entire population of Australia, Nobody Sausage is all in on delivering the ULTIMATE fan experience.

To fully sausage-pill future fans, they need to understand the value of being rewarded for their participation. And as the brand grows, the rewards for the $NOBODY community only get bigger.

In short:

Products Sold ➜ % $NOBODY Tokens Purchased ➜ Tokens Utilized for Fan Rewards, Onboarding, and Future Digital/IRL Initiatives.

These token buybacks aren’t arbitrary. Every purchase flows directly back into the Nobody Sausage ecosystem, transforming digital value into real-world impact.

$NOBODY is rewriting the playbook.

When the brand wins, the fans win, and the whole ecosystem levels up, propelling us up the IP ladder to go head-to-head with the biggest names in the world.

More massive activations are coming. Countless buybacks on the way. The Sausage is inevitable.

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

Only interested in a potential $BTC short in current area if we manage to sweep this week's high set on Monday.
The weekly low seems a great target for a scalp.

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

Watching for a potential short on $SOL. Those highs seem great for a potential deviation play. #solana

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

@BTCtreasuries Ngmi

[Nobody Sausage @nobodysausage]

The Blueprint: Rewarding Engagement

Nobody Sausage is the world’s largest social-media-native IP, captivating a massive audience with everything from viral short-form memes to massive displays at EDM festivals.

So, what does it mean to reward Superfans?

Engage ➜ Earn Points ➜ Points Backed by Token ➜ Rewards.

$NOBODY isn’t just a culture coin. It’s your all-inclusive entry to the Nobody Sausage ecosystem, forever. Tokens are distributed to product purchasers as rewards, enabling them to enter the NOBODY community platform and unlock exclusive content, token-gated luxuries, and early access to future drops.

Rewarding participation every step of the way.

Share Nobody Sausage online ➜ Get Rewarded.
Buy Nobody Sausage products ➜ Get Rewarded.
Attend Nobody Sausage events ➜ Get Rewarded.
Engage with Nobody Sausage Content ➜ Get Rewarded.

Current campaigns are happening, participation is key. Every action with Nobody Sausage earns rewards.

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

@astekz I'm thinking Los Pollos Hermanks

[Truflation @truflation]

The US and crypto markets just lost a few trillion. But why?

- Bitcoin went below $87,000
- S&P 500 -1.5 trillion
-Crypto -3 trillion

It seems there was no news, and Nvidia earnings surpassed expectations again, reviving the market for a short while, so what happened?

We think it was the BLS and macro data again!

Nov 19, BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) revises calendar, admitting it won't ever release Oct Jobs, and won't share Nov jobs report until after the FOMC meeting Dec 10.

Nov 19, the latest FOMC minutes get released, highlighting division among members about the need for another rate cut in December, and reiterating their reliance on data.

Nov 20, BEA (Bureau of Economic Statistics) says it won't release GDP.

Nov 20, BLS releases a surprisingly good jobs report for September (contested by our independent data).

Good jobs report signals a good enough economy.

A good economy and inflation not below 2% signals the Fed has still some time before it needs to cut interest rates.

The lack of data from BLS and BEA signals the Fed won't have enough info to decisively push interest rate cuts on Dec 10 (they are driving in the fog and need to slow down as per Jerome Powell's words).

The odds of December interest rate cuts alter dramatically on the prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, panic spreading on X as macro KOLs share the news.

Markets dump, pricing in a "no more interest rate cuts this year." To them, it means no influx of liquidity necessary for the crypto and stock market revival.

In summary, yet again, the data from a gov agency that uses a 100-year-old methodology to collect its data from consumer surveys becomes the main market mover, spreading fear and taking trillions off the board.

Why? Because the markets believe the BLS data, or lack thereof, deeply influences the Federal Reserve's decisions. Which it sadly does.

This is why inflation and labor data is king.

This is why we need better data.

And this is why we still sadly need to try to predict the faulty data of the BLS to know what the Fed might do.

We do this at Truflation by aging our real-time data by 45 days and making it worse when predicting the BLS CPI releases.

Do you agree with our macro theory of what happened to the markets today?

Let us know in the comments below!

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

Why was everybody hyped about 1 green candle in a massive downtrend?
Bottoms are not formed in one day.

I keep shorting until proven otherwise!
$BTC $VIRTUALS $BNB

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

@0xabdulahh @Cbb0fe Thanks mate!

[smolting (wassie, verse) @inversebrah]

mofokka was spot on wtf

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

$VIRTUALS following the plan. Let's see if we manage to retrace the full pump. 🫢 #virtuals #crypto

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

$BNB playing along. Lovely weekend gains😁.
Enjoy the rest of your Sunday. #crypto #binance

[Inner Citadel @InnerCitadelTA]

@0xSammy Tattooine about to be under siege now