The more Bitcoin coils here, the less I think new lows are likely. My thoughts haven't changed much since we hit 60k early in Feb, and I've been keeping the same Elliott Wave count primary since November. The market is too bearish and there is a strong possibility Bitcoin breaks higher out of this range, despite endless bad news, equities and other macro risks. Bitcoin needs to get above that 72-76k area to confirm.
We are now in the area that this move will finish.
And this section below the 74k lows will provide the springboard for the next macro leg higher.
Bitcoin is only down 40% and its 1W RSI has reached levels that previously took 80% moves to reach.
I am convinced based on all my analysis that what we have experienced here is a mid cycle top that will not follow the standard bear market plan as we did not follow the same bull market plan.
This situation we are in is fundamentally different.
This period is essentially the max pain version of this thesis playing out.
Taking the lows, losing 74k temporarily, pushing everyone over the edge, even the most staunch of bulls... baiting a massive bear trap.
And then a whipsaw up fueled by late shorters and the insane amount of liquidity that has been built up higher.
There is now $25bn in longs up to $110k.
This liquidity has been built up and not taken yet for a reason.
They are going to go back for it all.
This is the worst area to flip your bias you should be looking to accumulate, not sell.
Even if you are convinced we are going to $35k, you would want to wait for a bounce higher, let long liq build up again, and short higher.
This will all be resolved and feb and it is my belief we enter the next macro leg higher, which would be the most shocking outcome.
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@Sykodelic_ I guess the Syko part of you is giving you immunity to the hate spewed unto you just for giving free information and personal opinion. Thanks for all that you do and give. Cheers!
Most people still have no idea what’s about to happen on December 3.
The Fusaka upgrade quietly kills the No1 reason normies never touch crypto: seed phrases.
New Ethereum wallets will let you:
- Create a wallet in 5 seconds
- Sign every transaction with Face ID or fingerprint
- Recover your wallet on a new phone with the same biometrics (via iCloud/Google sync)
No 12 words.
No screenshots.
No “I got hacked because I saved my seed in Notes.”
This is the moment crypto finally feels as effortless as Apple Pay.
If there was ever a singularity moment that breaks the barrier for mass adoption, this is probably it.
@Sykodelic_ A very logical and profitable play for both OGs and institutions. Maybe the OGs were the backup plan of our masters from the very start of the Bitcoin revolution.
Looks like Midas was involved in the $93M loss of Stream earlier today. They claim they are unaffected.
Midas is known for also issuing mXRP on the XRP Ledger.
Word on the street recommends to withdraw. Better safe than sorry approach.
MVRV-Z score assesses if Bitcoin is over or undervalued
It measures the deviation between market price and onchain cost basis
Cycle tops form with a score above 6.5
Current score: 2.5
Crazy. People have been waiting for the parabolic phase of the Bitcoin cycle for so long, and altcoins have struggled to catch a bid for so long, that instead of just continuing to wait for the inevitable, the mentality is instead to call top on every correction. Patience people!